Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream on Sunday
Dustin May appeared to be getting back on track after posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 22 strikeouts in 17 innings in the three outings leading up to his last start. However, the hot stretch ended after yielding five earned runs in five frames against the San Diego Padres. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants in the finale of a three-game weekend set. The visitors sport a below average wOBA and above average strikeout rate with a righty on the hill, giving May a good chance to rebound.
Noah Cameron experienced the first poor outing of his short career earlier in the week against the New York Yankees, but the Yankees are one of the most potent offenses in the league. Cameron is in a great spot to get back on track at home when the Kansas City Royals face the Athletics. He'll take on an impatient lineup with an above-average strikeout rate.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
Mitch Keller is tied for third in baseball with 10 quality starts, yet his record is just 1-9. He'll be hard-pressed to collect his second win on Sunday with the Pittsburgh Pirates wrapping up a four-game set with the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field. Usually starting Keller to garner some strikeouts while not harming ratios is a viable approach. However, the Cubs lead the league in scoring, so it's best to avoid Keller on the final day of this fantasy scoring period
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Temperature: B- | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.24 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.36 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.63 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.67 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.10 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.00 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
With Hunter Greene sidelined after aggravating a groin injury, the Cincinnati Reds are sending Wade Miley to the hill for another start despite surrendering seven runs in seven stanzas over his first two appearances. The Detroit Tigers right-handed contingent line up for a productive afternoon. The primary options are C Dillon Dingler, IF/OF Javier Baez and switch-hitting OF Wenceel Perez.
Hitters to avoid on Sunday
The Boston Red Sox are one of the top offenses facing left-handers. However, with Max Fried taking the hill for the New York Yankees in the finale of a three-game series in Fenway Park, the safe approach is pivoting from Red Sox batters.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .342 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .335 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .256 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates RHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Umpire: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .274 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.52 EV
One reason to bet this: Grisham pulls a lot of his fly balls (33.9% -- 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's third-shallowest right field fences.
Jac Caglianone | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.36 EV
One reason to bet this: In the last two weeks of games, Caglianone has averaged an impressive 104.7-mph exit velocity on his fly balls, an advanced proxy for home run potential.
Tyler Soderstrom | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.08 EV
One reason to bet this: Soderstrom has compiled a .344 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 80th percentile for offensive skills according to the projections' interpretation of Statcast data.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Grant Holmes | OVER 7.5 K (+105)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Truist Park is the 10th-best ballpark in MLB for strikeouts.
Max Fried | UNDER 2.5 ER (-170)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.24 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering that flyball-hitters perform worse against flyball-pitchers, Fried (51.8% GB% according to my projections) is well-situated in this game with two flyball-hitters in the oppositions projected lineup.
Brayan Bello | UNDER 2.5 ER (+110)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.22 EV
One reason to bet this: It is expected that we will see a "pitchers umpire" (Chris Conroy) behind the plate in todays game.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Cardinals @ Brewers | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $1.87 EV
Pirates @ Cubs | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $1.22 EV
Rockies @ Braves | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $0.38 EV