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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
Five of David Peterson's last six outings have been quality starts. His ERA was 2.58 with a 1.17 WHIP over that span, and he fanned a respectable 35 over those 38 1/3 innings. The southpaw lines up for another strong effort when the New York Mets host the Washington Nationals. The visitors tote the 10th-lowest wOBA and an above-average strikeout rate with a left-hander on the hill.
Chicago Cubs RHP Ben Brown has 16 strikeouts to only two walks in 13 innings over his last two starts. Not so coincidentally, he has mixed in more changeups in these two outings, throwing it a season-high 9.8% of the time in his previous effort. Having a third pitch to keep batters from sitting on his four-seam fastball or curve can be the key to cementing Brown's status as a quality starter and assuage chatter about transitioning to the bullpen. Wednesday will be a nice test for Brown when the Cubs visit the Philadelphia Phillies. The hosts don't strike out much, but their offense checks in as an average unit facing right-handers. With Bryce Harper out, Brown is an appealing streamer.
Its been just three games, but if Clarke Schmidt can maintain his recent control gains, the New York Yankees' one-two punch of Carlos Rodon and Max Fried can become a "Big Three." Over his last 16 1/3 frames, Schmidt has administered only four free passes while punching out 20. His strikeouts might be tempered with a road date against the Kansas City Royals, but Schmidt should be able to go deep into a game in which he'll face the 25th-ranked offense against righties.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Pitchers can snap out of slumps as quickly as hitters, but with Jesus Luzardo facing the Cubs, the safe play is to avoid the Phillies southpaw against the league's top-scoring offense. Yielding 20 runs on 21 hits over his last two starts, covering just 5 2/3 combined innings, earns Luzardo a seat on the fantasy bench until he rights the ship.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Mets pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.75 ERA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.89 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.39 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Giants hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.37 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: F | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.22 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
The Athletics' Nick Kurtz was heating up before a strained left hip flexor sent him to the 10-day IL for 14 games. In the five contests before getting hurt, Kurtz hit .412/.522/1.118. He was hitless in his return, but the left-handed slugger is in a great spot to get back on track Wednesday against Los Angeles Angels righty Kyle Hendricks.
Today's best matchups for hitters
San Francisco Giants batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .367 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: A+ | Umpire: A | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .359 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Rays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .284 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .289 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .294 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $35.81 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.8 mph in this contest, the third-best of the day for hitters.
Coby Mayo | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.42 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on my projections of expected wOBA (.233), Mayo has had some very poor luck since the start of last season given his .173 actual wOBA.
Carlos Correa | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.94 EV
One reason to bet this: Correa has been unlucky this year, notching a .290 wOBA despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be .335 -- a .045 difference.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Bryan Woo | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.98 EV
One reason to bet this: It is anticipated that we will see a huge "hitter's umpire" (Scott Barry) calling pitches in today's game.
Eric Lauer | UNDER 2.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Busch Stadium profiles as the No. 26 stadium in baseball for strikeouts, per my projections.
Chad Patrick | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Patrick has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting an 8.14 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 7.87 -- a 0.27 K/9 deviation.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Dodgers @ Padres | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of RUN with a $3.25 EV
Giants @ Rockies | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $1.07 EV