Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

Todd ZolaJun 8, 2025, 08:32 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.9	Paul Skenes	R	PHI	99.9%	-115	6.5	54%	6.0	2.0	6.4
12.1	Carlos Rodon	L	BOS	96.2%	-210	8.5	60%	5.6	2.3	6.4
11.8	Spencer Strider	R	@SF	83.6%	-135	7.5	50%	5.7	2.4	6.5
10.9	Cristopher Sanchez	L	@PIT	87.6%	-105	6.5	46%	5.8	2.4	5.4
10.5	Joe Ryan	R	TOR	97.1%	-175	8.5	53%	5.6	2.8	6.0
10.3	Freddy Peralta	R	SD	93.8%	-165	8.5	55%	5.5	2.7	6.0
10.1	Tanner Bibee	R	HOU	76.5%	-160	7.5	53%	5.6	2.7	5.6
9.6	George Kirby	R	@LAA	73.6%	-150	8.5	58%	5.6	2.8	5.1
9.6	Bowden Francis	R	@MIN	38.5%	+145	8.5	47%	5.2	2.5	5.3
9.1	Zac Gallen	R	@CIN	79.1%	-150	9.5	46%	5.6	3.0	6.0
8.9	Jack Flaherty	R	CHC	87.3%	-145	8.5	47%	5.5	3.0	5.9
8.7	Cade Horton	R	@DET	12.6%	+120	8.5	53%	5.3	2.7	5.0
8.6	Landen Roupp	R	ATL	16.5%	+115	7.5	50%	5.2	2.4	4.8
8.4	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@ATH	30.8%	-150	10.5	54%	5.6	2.9	4.7
8.1	Michael Lorenzen	R	@CWS	8.0%	-165	8.5	58%	5.3	2.6	4.5
7.7	Brandon Walter	L	@CLE	2.5%	+135	7.5	47%	4.5	2.0	4.4
7.5	Drew Rasmussen	R	MIA	74.3%	-250	8.5	57%	4.2	1.8	3.7
7.3	Hunter Dobbins	R	@NYY	1.9%	+175	8.5	40%	4.9	2.6	4.8
7.3	Brady Singer	R	ARI	34.2%	+125	9.5	54%	5.5	3.3	5.1
7.2	Jacob Lopez	L	BAL	0.2%	+125	10.5	46%	4.5	2.3	4.7
7.2	Trevor Williams	R	TEX	1.3%	+115	8.5	50%	5.1	2.8	4.4
7.0	Michael McGreevy	R	LAD	4.7%	+120	9.5	50%	5.9	3.3	4.4
6.5	Clayton Kershaw	L	@STL	11.6%	-145	9.5	50%	4.5	2.1	3.5
5.8	Jacob Latz	L	@WSH	0.2%	-135	8.5	50%	4.9	3.1	5.3
5.2	Anthony Veneziano	L	@TB	0.0%	+205	8.5	43%	5.0	3.1	4.1
5.1	Tyler Anderson	L	SEA	14.5%	+125	8.5	42%	5.2	3.4	4.7
5.0	Ryan Bergert	R	@MIL	1.3%	+140	8.5	45%	4.7	2.9	4.3
4.4	Mike Vasil	R	KC	0.8%	+140	8.5	42%	5.0	3.4	4.2
2.3	Tylor Megill	R	@COL	45.3%	-275	10.5	54%	4.9	5.0	5.7
-0.4	Chase Dollander	R	NYM	1.7%	+225	10.5	46%	4.4	5.0	4.3

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

Clayton Kershaw managed only 4 2/3 innings in his last start, but he threw 92 pitches which is a positive sign. That said, the three walks driving up his pitch count aren't ideal, but the veteran deserves the benefit of the doubt. On Sunday, the Los Angeles Dodgers lefty takes on the St. Louis Cardinals on the road. Kershaw faces a lineup producing at a league average clip facing left-handers, though he does have the platoon edge on some key Cardinals hitters.
Michael Lorenzen struggled in his last two efforts, yielding 13 earned runs in just 7 2/3 innings. Prior to that, Lorenzen pitched into the sixth in seven of 10 starts, three times completing at least six stanzas. With the Kansas City Royals visiting the Chicago White Sox, Lorenzen has a chance to get back on track, facing the lineup with the second lowest wOBA in the league versus righties.

Pitchers to avoid on Sunday

George Kirby pitched better in his last outing, throwing 95 pitches through five frames before being hit in the jaw by a comebacker. He threw the batter out for the last out in the fifth but didn't return. Kirby yielded two runs to the Baltimore Orioles but fanned only three. When pitching well, he's more of a command-and-control guy, so issuing four free passes and three homers in 13 2/3 innings since returning from shoulder inflammation is just as concerning as the lack of punchouts. On paper, the Seattle Mariners road date with the Los Angeles Angels is a great spot for Kirby to get on track, but there is risk, especially since he wasn't cleared to pitch until Saturday. The Angels offer strikeout potential, so Kirby is in play for teams needing to catch up in head-to-head play, but otherwise the safe approach is avoiding him.
Tyler Mahle has been a frequent visitor to this section, and he's struggled in two of his last three outings. However, the Texas Rangers right-hander is still rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues, so the warning remains. Mahle is still due more regression and is a risk on Sunday when the Texas Rangers visit the Washington Nationals. For the past month, the Nationals sport the ninth best wOBA and third lowest strikeout rate in MLB facing righties.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Sunday

After excelling in his first start after beginning the season in the Athletics bullpen, Jacob Lopez yielded 12 total runs in six combined innings in his last two starts. The Orioles have been disappointing on the mound and at the plate, but their right-handed batters are in a great spot against a vulnerable southpaw. Ramon Laureano, Coby Mayo and Ramon Urias are the chief targets.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Christopher Morel | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Morel has been unlucky this year, notching a .277 wOBA despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be .325 -- a .048 gap.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.19 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to centerfield at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters.

Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Cruz has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last seasons 95.3-mph average.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Jacob Latz | UNDER 2.5 K (+110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.11 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Latz (37.9% FB% according to my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with seven groundball hitters in Washington's projected offense.

Cade Horton | UNDER 2.5 ER (-130)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.90 EV
One reason to bet this: It may be best to expect negative regression for the Detroit Tigers offense in future games, given that my projections sees them as the fifth-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

Anthony Veneziano | UNDER 1.5 K (-165)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.24 EV
One reason to bet this: The Tampa Bay Rays have nine batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Veneziano today.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Orioles @ Athletics | NRFI (+120)
Projection: 48% chance of NO RUN with a $4.63 EV

Padres @ Brewers | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $3.53 EV

Rangers @ Nationals | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $1.35 EV