Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

May 30, 2025, 07:07 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.5	David Peterson	L	COL	40.7%	-325	7.5	64%	6.1	1.8	6.3
13.4	Framber Valdez	L	TB	97.2%	-165	7.5	55%	6.0	2.2	6.7
12.5	Bryan Woo	R	MIN	90.8%	-160	7.5	49%	5.6	1.8	5.2
12.0	Nick Pivetta	R	PIT	90.7%	-200	7.5	51%	5.4	2.1	6.2
11.2	Chris Bassitt	R	ATH	69.2%	-165	8.5	56%	6.0	2.7	5.7
11.1	Max Fried	L	@LAD	99.5%	-135	8.5	56%	5.7	2.3	6.0
10.5	Mitch Keller	R	@SD	51.3%	+165	7.5	49%	6.0	2.6	5.3
10.2	Kyle Harrison	L	@MIA	3.4%	-180	8.5	64%	5.2	2.3	5.2
9.6	Andrew Abbott	L	@CHC	45.1%	+145	8.5	54%	5.5	2.5	5.1
9.6	Seth Lugo	R	DET	72.6%	EVEN	8.5	50%	6.0	3.1	5.3
9.5	Zach Eflin	R	CWS	36.2%	-215	9.5	62%	5.5	2.7	4.8
9.5	Ryan Pepiot	R	@HOU	25.0%	+140	7.5	45%	5.3	2.3	4.8
9.5	Merrill Kelly	R	WSH	71.7%	-210	8.5	52%	5.7	2.8	5.4
8.5	Kyle Freeland	L	@NYM	1.2%	+260	7.5	36%	5.5	2.5	4.4
8.5	Jeffrey Springs	L	@TOR	16.9%	+140	8.5	44%	5.3	2.4	4.5
8.4	Luis Ortiz	R	LAA	6.6%	-145	8.5	60%	5.2	2.7	5.1
8.3	Colin Rea	R	CIN	12.0%	-175	8.5	46%	5.3	2.7	5.0
8.1	Jake Irvin	R	@ARI	27.4%	+175	8.5	48%	5.6	2.9	4.6
7.8	Tony Gonsolin	R	NYY	18.5%	+115	8.5	44%	5.2	2.7	4.9
7.7	Grant Holmes	R	BOS	19.6%	-165	9.5	56%	5.1	3.0	5.5
7.3	Zebby Matthews	R	@SEA	5.2%	+135	7.5	51%	4.5	2.3	4.9
7.2	Taijuan Walker	R	MIL	4.2%	-145	9.5	52%	5.3	2.9	4.6
7.1	Jose Soriano	R	@CLE	10.0%	+120	8.5	40%	5.0	2.5	4.8
6.4	Matthew Liberatore	L	@TEX	58.6%	--	--	57%	4.7	2.8	4.4
6.3	Quinn Priester	R	@PHI	1.0%	+120	9.5	48%	5.3	3.0	4.3
5.9	Cal Quantrill	R	SF	0.6%	+150	8.5	36%	4.9	2.6	3.9
5.8	Casey Mize	R	@KC	69.0%	-120	8.5	50%	5.1	3.1	4.1
5.8	Lucas Giolito	R	@ATL	5.9%	+140	9.5	44%	5.3	3.8	5.5
5.0	Sean Burke	R	@BAL	2.6%	+180	9.5	38%	5.1	3.3	4.6
3.5	Jack Leiter	R	STL	16.3%	--	--	43%	4.7	3.4	4.3

Pitchers to stream on Friday

It's rare that the top-ranked pitcher for that day is available in more than half of ESPN leagues. Such is the case on Friday with David Peterson and the New York Mets welcoming the Colorado Rockies into Citi Field. The southpaw has strung four straight quality starts, the prior pair against the powerful New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers offense. The Rockies are one of the least potent lineups facing lefties, especially on the road.
The San Francisco Giants tabbed Kyle Harrison to fill one of the voids in their rotation after placing Justin Verlander on the IL and demoting Jordan Hicks to the bullpen. In six starts for Triple-A Sacramento, Harrison posted a 3.46 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 26 innings, albeit with eight walks. Perhaps the most impressive number is only two homers allowed. It's a small sample, but Harrison was pitching in one of the most power friendly leagues, and homers have been his crutch over 168 1/3 major league frames. His K-BB% in the majors is above average, but despite pitching half of the time in Oracle Park, the lefty has yielded 28 career homers (1.50 HR/9). Harrison is in the good spot to lower that with a road tilt against the Miami Marlins in loanDepot Park. The venue suppresses homers almost as much as Oracle Park, and the Marlins hit home runs and one of the lowest rates in the league.
After opening the season with three consecutive quality starts, Zach Eflin hasn't lasted more than 5 1/3 innings, posting an 8.22 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over that span. On Friday, Elfin has a favorable matchup with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Chicago White Sox, who sport the league's lowest wOBA facing right-handers.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

Casey Mize is rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues. The addition of a cutter has helped increase strikeouts while reducing free passes, but the Detroit Tigers righty has also been aided by a low .238 BABIP and 89.0% left on base mark. His 2.45 ERA is well below the associated 3.71 xFIP and 3.69 SIERA. Mize's estimators still reflect a solid pitcher, and he fanned six batters in five frames last time against the Cleveland Guardians. It was his first outing since a short IL stint for a left hamstring strain. Even so, Mize draws the Kansas City Royals on Friday. Strikeouts will be hard to come by with the Royals fanning at the lowest clip in the league facing right-handers. Without as many punchout points, and the possibility of not being fully stretched out to provide innings, it's best to avoid Mize in this AL Central tilt.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Friday

With Aaron Nola needing a rehab outing before returning, Taijuan Walker picks up another spot start for the Philadelphia Phillies. The veteran has been serviceable as a swingman, but his 4.39 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA better reflect his skills than the actual 2.97 ERA. Further, the Phillies are coming off a Thursday doubleheader, taxing their bullpen. Together, this benefits the Milwaukee Brewers when they open a road set in Citizens Bank Park. Christian Yelich and Brice Turang are both available in 30% of ESPN leagues, with Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz more readily available.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Michael Massey | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.12 EV
One reason to bet this: My projections have Massey's true offensive ability to be a .298 wOBA, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the large difference between that figure and his actual .218 wOBA.

Ryan Mountcastle | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Mountcastle's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 14.8% to 19.6%.

Dylan Carlson | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Carlson and his 18.9-degree launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 89th percentile, among the highest in MLB since the start of last season.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Taijuan Walker | UNDER 3.5 K (-105)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.77 EV
One reason to bet this: Walker and his 33.9 underlying GB% (according to my projections) will be in a troublesome position in today's outing.

Jake Irvin | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.03 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last start, Irvin didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and only managed to post two Ks.

Casey Mize | UNDER 3.5 K (+115)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.11 EV
One reason to bet this: Mize's 93.8-mph fastball velocity this season is a substantial 1.6-mph decrease from last years 95.4-mph figure.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Twins @ Mariners | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $4.07 EV

Athletics @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $0.70 EV

Brewers @ Phillies | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $0.53 EV