Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Until Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Mitch Keller sees his rostership eclipse 50%, he's going to be a mainstay in this space. He's up to seven quality starts, including his last three outings. Keller fanned 19 with just five walks and no homers allowed in those 19 frames. Next up is a home date with the Milwaukee Brewers, who tote the sixth lowest wOBA facing right-handers into PNC Park.
Los Angeles Angels RHP Jose Soriano is one skill away from taking the next step. His four-seam and two-seam fastballs both average around 97-mph. He throws a knuckle-curve at 85-mph, serving as his changeup. Soriano's issue is control as only 60% of his pitches are strikes, well below the 63.7% league average. On Friday, Soriano faces one of the least patient teams in the league with the Angels hosting the Miami Marlins. If Soriano trusts his stuff, he should post his sixth quality start in 11 outings.
While an offensive breakout for the Baltimore Orioles seems inevitable, their slump has transpired long enough to not worry about stream against them. Boston Red Sox RHP Hunter Dobbins is the type of pitcher that can keep the Orioles mired in the doldrums. He's not overpowering, but Dobbins pounds the zone, walking just five batters in 32 1/3 innings. He's also keeping the ball in the yard with just three homers allowed all season.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
With a 6-1 record and 2.53 ERA, RHP Casey Mize is one of the reasons the Detroit Tigers entered the weekend with the best record in baseball. However, he's been sidelined with a sore hamstring, last appearing on May 8. Mize is ticketed to come off the 15-day IL on Saturday to face the Cleveland Guardians in the Motor City. Mize eschewed rehab, instead getting ready via bullpen sessions so he's likely to be on a workload restriction. The Guardians fan at the lowest rate in the league, further dampening Mize's points potential. It's best to look elsewhere for fantasy purposes.
Saturday best matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.65 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: B+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.95 ERA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.10 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.22 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.18 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Entering this weekend, the Angels are averaging the second-most runs per game in MLB. They're in a great spot to pad their total with a home date against Marlins RHP Cal Quantrill and his 6.37 ERA. OF Taylor Ward is their only healthy batter rostered in over half of ESPN leagues and he's at just 57%. Other targets include C Logan O'Hoppe and SS Zach Neto.
Saturday's best matchups for hitters
New York Yankees batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .353 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies LHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for hitters
Houston Astros RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .274 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals RHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Saturday's top home run prop bets
Kyle Isbel | OVER 0.5 HR (+1400)
Projection: 8% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.00 EV
One reason to bet this: The Minnesota Twins have just one same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Drake Baldwin | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.20 EV
One reason to bet this: The fifth-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks are found in Truist Park.
Jake Meyers | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.63 EV
One reason to bet this: The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today - favorable for offense.
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Hunter Dobbins | UNDER 4.5 K (-125)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $35.07 EV
One reason to bet this: Fenway Park projects as the No. 26 venue in baseball for strikeouts, via my projections.
Tony Gonsolin | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.21 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering that flyball hitters have a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Tony Gonsolin and his 36.6% underlying GB% (via my projections) will be in a troublesome spot today being matched up with two opposing GB hitters.
Max Fried | UNDER 6.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.22 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity go, the fourth-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.
Saturday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Mariners at Astros | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 60% chance of NO RUN with a $3.11 EV
Marlins at Angels | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $2.35 EV
Phillies at Athletics | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $0.58 EV