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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
While there are a couple of other viable options on Thursday's abbreviated nine-game slate, Athletics RHP Luis Severino is the clearcut best streamer available. He's coming off six scoreless innings in a road tilt with the San Francisco Giants. While he struggled in the prior two outings, overall Severino has been a league average pitching, which plays with favorable matchups. A home affair with the Los Angeles Angels qualifies with the visitors toting the eighth lowest wOBA versus righties to West Sacramento.
On another day, Milwaukee Brewers RHP Carlos Rodriguez would be too risky to trust, but on Thursday's card, he's in play with a road affair against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rodriguez is making a spot start after RHP Tobias Myers was optioned to Triple-A Nashville last weekend. RHP Aaron Civale and LHP Jose Quintana are close to being ready to rejoin the club, so Rodriguez's stint back in the show could be brief. He's been starting on the farm, so the workload won't be an issue. He's sporting a 1.99 ERA, fueled by 49 punchouts and only two homers allowed in 45 1/3 innings. The Pirates' wOBA is the second lowest in MLB.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Seattle Mariners RHP George Kirby started the season on the 10-day IL and he's probably on the fantasy IL in most of the 83% of ESPN leagues in which he's rostered. The righty has been out with shoulder inflammation. He compiled three rehab efforts, fanning 13 with just two walks in 10 frames, but he served up three homers, including a pair in his final outing. There is plenty of season left for Kirby to be a solid contributor but it's best to wait at least a start and avoid him on the road against the Houston Astros.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.90 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.08 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.20 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.31 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.84 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Baltimore Orioles LHP Cade Povich fanned nine Washington Nationals over 5/2/3 innings in his last outing. On Thursday, he'll be challenged by a Boston Red Sox club whose offense appears to be on the verge of a breakout and is already averaging the eighth most runs per game in MLB. Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela and Connor Wong all enjoy the platoon edge on the Orioles sophomore southpaw.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: F | Temperature: F | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers batters vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .290 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% - 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park, considering he'll be hitting towards baseballs 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.59 EV
One reason to bet this: Langford has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.7% seasonal rate to 36.4% in the past week.
Jorge Soler | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.47 EV
One reason to bet this: Sutter Health Park has the second-lowest average fence height among all MLB parks.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Mike Burrows | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.58 EV
One reason to bet this: The team with the fourth-least strikeout-heavy lineup projected for today's games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.1 underlying K%.
AJ Smith-Shawver | UNDER 4.5 K (+125)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.45 EV
One reason to bet this: This matchup is predicted to have weather that is unfavorable for pitching.
Nathan Eovaldi | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Eovaldi's 2213-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks only in the 21st percentile among all starters.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Braves @ Nationals | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $0.60 EV
Guardians @ Tigers | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.53 EV