Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

Todd ZolaMay 21, 2025, 07:20 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
11.7	Corbin Burnes	R	@LAD	97.0%	120	9.5	55%	5.8	2.3	5.9
11.5	Logan Webb	R	KC	98.9%	-210	7.5	67%	6.2	2.6	5.2
10.6	Hunter Brown	R	@TB	97.8%	-150	8.5	58%	5.5	2.4	5.9
10.1	Kevin Gausman	R	SD	83.2%	-160	8.5	54%	5.8	2.8	5.6
10.0	Jacob deGrom	R	@NYY	94.9%	-105	7.5	48%	5.1	2.1	5.3
10.0	Shane Smith	R	SEA	21.0%	125	8.5	47%	5.1	2.1	5.6
9.2	Garrett Crochet	L	NYM	99.8%	-155	7.5	52%	5.3	3.0	6.6
8.8	Cade Horton	R	@MIA	8.8%	-145	8.5	52%	4.7	2.1	4.8
8.7	Brady Singer	R	@PIT	41.4%	-130	7.5	58%	5.6	2.8	5.0
8.5	JP Sears	L	LAA	34.4%	-175	10.5	53%	5.4	2.9	4.9
8.3	Logan Evans	R	@CWS	3.5%	-150	8.5	53%	5.4	2.7	4.9
8.3	Ryan Yarbrough	L	TEX	0.5%	-115	7.5	52%	5.0	2.4	4.5
8.0	Dustin May	R	ARI	20.9%	-145	9.5	45%	5.4	2.8	5.2
8.0	Chris Paddack	R	CLE	13.6%	-125	7.5	62%	5.2	2.6	4.2
7.9	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@MIL	26.7%	105	8.5	50%	5.4	2.9	4.6
7.9	Andre Pallante	R	DET	5.7%	-115	8.5	50%	5.4	2.6	4.4
7.8	Brant Hurter	L	@STL	0.7%	-105	8.5	50%	5.2	2.5	4.3
7.8	AJ Smith-Shawver	R	@WSH	57.5%	-155	8.5	58%	4.9	2.6	5.1
7.6	Taj Bradley	R	HOU	41.9%	125	8.5	42%	5.4	3.0	4.9
7.5	Max Meyer	R	CHC	25.3%	120	8.5	48%	5.2	2.9	5.3
7.1	Jack Kochanowicz	R	@ATH	1.1%	145	10.5	47%	5.4	2.8	3.8
6.6	Gavin Williams	R	@MIN	14.5%	105	7.5	38%	4.8	2.7	5.2
6.5	Randy Vasquez	R	@TOR	2.6%	135	8.5	46%	5.1	2.6	3.5
6.2	Chad Patrick	R	BAL	4.0%	-125	8.5	50%	5.2	3.2	4.5
6.1	Trevor Williams	R	ATL	0.5%	130	8.5	42%	5.1	3.1	4.5
6.1	Andrew Heaney	L	CIN	23.9%	110	7.5	42%	4.8	2.8	4.6
5.8	Tylor Megill	R	@BOS	33.7%	130	7.5	48%	4.9	3.3	5.5
3.1	Daniel Lynch IV	L	@SF	0.3%	175	7.5	33%	2.7	1.5	2.1
-0.5	Taijuan Walker	R	@COL	6.5%	-210	11.5	60%	4.1	4.6	3.8
-3.0	Carson Palmquist	L	PHI	0.0%	175	11.5	40%	3.9	5.4	4.5

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

One of the few bright spots for the Chicago White Sox is RHP Shane Smith, nabbed from the Milwaukee Brewers with the first pick in the 2024 Rule 5 draft. He's surrendered more than two earned runs just once in nine starts when he yielded three to the Boston Red Sox in 4 2/3 innings in an April outing. Smith faces the Seattle Mariners at home. The key to Smith's 2.05 ERA is allowing only two homers in 48 ¼ frames. The Mariners are hitting long balls at the fifth highest rate in MLB, so this is a risky call, but if Smith can keep the ball in the yard, he lines up for another solid effort. The early forecast indicates chilly temperatures in the low 50s, which helps suppress how the ball carries, lessening power.
Cincinnati Reds RHP Brady Singer has struggled in his last two outings, giving up 10 earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings, but he draws the ideal lineup to get back on track with a road date against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the club averaging 2.12 runs per game this month, by far the lowest in the league. Homers have been an issue for Singer, but the Pirates also sport May's lowest home run rate.
Chicago Cubs RHP Cade Horton has recorded a win in each of his first two major league outings. The first came as a primary pitcher -- the pitcher who comes in after the opener -- while the second when working as a traditional starter. Horton's success earned another start, so he'll toe the rubber in South Beach and face a vulnerable Miami Marlins. Horton has only seven punchouts in nine frames and he's served up three homers, but he's yet to issue a free pass. The Marlins exhibit below average power with an above average strikeout rate.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

The gametime temperature will be in the high 80's in Sacramento when the Athletics host RHP Jack Kochanowicz and the Los Angeles Angels. The ball should be carrying in Sutter Health Park. Tyler Soderstrom is the only Athletics batter rostered in more than 85% of ESPN leagues. Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler could be available in some 10-team leagues. JJ Bleday, Nick Kurtz and Luis Urias are options in deeper formats.

Hitters to avoid on Wednesday

A home game against a rookie starting pitcher is usually a good spot for hitters, but it's likely to be cold and clammy in the nation's capital when the Washington Nationals entertain RHP AJ Smith-Shawver and the Atlanta Braves. Smith-Shawver appeared in both 2023 and 2024, but he did not amass ample innings or service time to lose freshman status. Currently, Smith-Shawver is among the favorites for the NL Rookie of the Year. It's best to leave Nationals hitters on the bench.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.26 EV
One reason to bet this: Rogers Centre profiles as the No. 2 stadium in MLB for right-handed home runs, per my projections.

Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.67 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last week, Langford's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.7% up to 33.3%.

Tommy Edman | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.76 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity go, the third-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Logan Evans | UNDER 3.5 K (-105)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.15 EV
One reason to bet this: It's likely that we'll see a huge "hitter's umpire" (Lance Barksdale) in charge of the strike zone in this game.

Dustin May | UNDER 4.5 K (-130)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.29 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity go, the third-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.

Jacob deGrom | UNDER 6.5 K (-120)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Yankee Stadium grades out as just the No. 23 venue in the league for strikeouts, according to my projections.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Angels @ Athletics | NRFI (+125)
Projection: 47% chance of NO RUN with a $4.69 EV

Phillies @ Rockies | YRFI (-150)
Projection: 62% chance of RUN with a $4.05 EV

Tigers @ Cardinals | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $2.88 EV