Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

ESPN

May 17, 2025, 05:00 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.7	Paul Skenes	R	@PHI	99.8%	66%	5.8	2.1	6.6
13.0	Michael King	R	SEA	98.5%	51%	5.6	1.8	6.3
12.4	Bryan Woo	R	@SD	87.4%	49%	5.6	1.8	4.9
11.8	Andrew Abbott	L	CLE	31.1%	58%	5.6	2.4	6.0
11.2	Max Fried	L	NYM	99.4%	53%	5.7	2.3	5.8
11.2	Merrill Kelly	R	COL	38.2%	61%	5.8	2.6	5.9
10.9	Freddy Peralta	R	MIN	94.4%	54%	5.5	2.6	6.3
10.9	David Peterson	L	@NYY	17.6%	47%	5.6	2.3	5.8
10.8	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@LAD	55.4%	44%	5.5	2.3	5.8
10.5	Tony Gonsolin	R	LAA	49.9%	56%	5.3	2.3	5.5
10.0	Zach Eflin	R	WSH	48.9%	61%	5.6	2.6	4.9
10.0	Jose Berrios	R	DET	55.3%	49%	5.8	2.8	5.4
10.0	Shane Baz	R	@MIA	37.8%	57%	5.4	2.2	5.1
9.6	Justin Verlander	R	ATH	13.1%	57%	5.7	2.6	4.8
9.4	Colin Rea	R	CWS	15.8%	60%	5.4	2.6	4.9
9.0	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	@BOS	90.6%	51%	5.7	3.2	5.7
7.9	Luis Ortiz	R	@CIN	6.9%	42%	5.3	2.9	5.4
7.8	Jackson Jobe	R	@TOR	16.3%	51%	5.1	2.5	4.6
7.3	Jeffrey Springs	L	@SF	7.8%	43%	5.0	2.5	4.5
7.2	Michael Wacha	R	STL	24.7%	54%	5.4	3.0	4.5
6.4	Brayan Bello	R	ATL	14.9%	49%	5.4	3.4	4.9
6.2	Jonathan Cannon	R	@CHC	1.7%	40%	5.3	3.0	4.3
5.8	Chase Dollander	R	@ARI	2.0%	39%	4.9	2.9	4.5
5.8	Cal Quantrill	R	TB	0.3%	43%	4.9	2.8	4.2
5.6	Zebby Matthews	R	@MIL	5.0%	46%	4.5	2.8	4.4
5.5	Michael Soroka	R	@BAL	1.1%	39%	4.9	3.0	4.4
5.4	Ryan Gusto	R	@TEX	1.5%	56%	4.5	2.9	4.3
4.9	Matthew Liberatore	L	@KC	39.5%	46%	4.5	2.8	3.9
3.8	Jack Leiter	R	HOU	14.8%	44%	4.4	3.2	4.8
3.6	Mick Abel	R	PIT	1.2%	34%	4.7	3.5	5.1

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

Over his first six starts, Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott has been both good and lucky. His 31.7% strikeout rate is the seventh best among pitchers compiling at least 30 innings, but he's benefited from a .254 BABIP, 7.5% HR/FB rate and 86.3% left on base clip. Abbott's 3.70 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA indicate that he's been solid, just not to the level of his actual 2.10 ERA. On Sunday, Abbott has a home date with the Cleveland Guardians, and the lineup with the 11th lowest wOBA and 10th poorest strikeout rate facing lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly has fanned an unusually high 14 batters over his past two outings spanning 13 1/3 innings. He's in a great spot to keep recording punchouts in a home matchup against the Colorado Rockies who sport the second highest strikeout rate against right-handers.
Given, it's a small sample, but in this instance it could be meaningful. Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane Baz sports a 6.03 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 31 1/3 home innings as compared to a 2.31 ERA and .94 WHIP over 11 1/3 road stanzas. On Sunday, Baz will still be pitching in the Sunshine State, but it will be in Little Havana for a road tilt against the Miami Marlins. Look for Baz's early season success away from George Steinbrenner Field to continue facing a below average offense versus righties.

Pitchers to avoid on Sunday

Toronto Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios is experiencing a "Jekyll and Hyde" type season. Over six of his starts, his ERA is a crisp 2.45. However, in the other three, it climbs to 8.80. While sample size noise is part of the reason, Berrios has also been inconsistent. As such, the safe play is benching Berrios for his home date against the Detroit Tigers, who tote the fifth best wOBA facing right-handers across the border.

Hitters to stream on Sunday

Brandon Hyde was not the reason for the Baltimore Orioles' slow start, but sometimes replacing the manager sparks a club, and the Orioles need something to jump start their offense. The fantasy silver lining to the club's woes is only Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are rostered in more than 65% of ESPN leagues. On Sunday, Washington Nationals RHP Michael Soroka is slated to start in Camden Yards. Soroka has fanned 15 in 14 frames, but he also sports a 6.43 ERA. Cedric Mullins, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle are all in a position to flip their first quarter script.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.