Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

May 16, 2025, 02:56 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
16.7	Zack Wheeler	R	PIT	99.9%	72%	6.4	2.1	7.4
12.5	Nick Pivetta	R	SEA	89.3%	58%	5.4	2.0	6.3
11.7	Pablo Lopez	R	@MIL	95.4%	56%	5.8	2.6	6.3
10.8	Zac Gallen	R	COL	87.5%	64%	5.7	2.7	6.2
10.2	Clarke Schmidt	R	NYM	12.2%	52%	5.4	2.3	5.1
10.2	Ronel Blanco	R	@TEX	37.1%	58%	5.6	2.7	5.5
9.8	Reese Olson	R	@TOR	32.9%	63%	5.3	2.3	4.8
9.6	Matthew Boyd	L	CWS	26.2%	62%	5.1	2.4	5.3
9.2	Luis Severino	R	@SF	22.2%	51%	5.7	2.6	4.8
9.0	Seth Lugo	R	STL	80.6%	55%	5.9	3.1	4.9
8.8	Griffin Canning	R	@NYY	38.7%	48%	5.4	2.7	5.2
8.4	Tobias Myers	R	MIN	1.7%	44%	5.1	2.4	4.6
8.4	Landen Roupp	R	ATH	5.0%	49%	5.2	2.5	4.9
8.3	Clayton Kershaw	L	LAA	14.5%	60%	4.7	2.2	4.7
8.3	Luis Ortiz	R	@CIN	6.1%	55%	5.3	2.9	5.4
8.1	Jake Irvin	R	@BAL	15.7%	49%	5.6	3.0	4.6
8.1	Edward Cabrera	R	TB	1.4%	53%	4.8	2.3	5.1
7.3	Tyler Anderson	L	@LAD	28.3%	40%	5.4	2.9	4.9
7.1	Kyle Gibson	R	WSH	0.4%	51%	5.6	3.3	4.8
6.5	Emerson Hancock	R	@SD	0.9%	42%	5.0	2.5	3.7
6.5	Drew Rasmussen	R	@MIA	29.3%	47%	4.0	1.9	3.8
6.1	Tyler Mahle	R	HOU	79.7%	42%	4.9	2.8	4.0
5.8	Grant Holmes	R	@BOS	11.2%	54%	4.9	3.4	5.5
5.6	Lucas Giolito	R	ATL	6.8%	46%	5.3	3.9	5.6
5.4	Miles Mikolas	R	@KC	2.9%	45%	5.3	3.3	3.7
5.2	Jose Urena	R	DET	0.1%	37%	4.6	2.7	3.6
5.2	Sean Burke	R	@CHC	3.0%	38%	4.9	3.1	4.5
4.1	Chase Petty	R	CLE	0.3%	45%	4.1	2.6	4.1
3.9	German Marquez	R	@ARI	0.3%	36%	4.5	2.9	3.7
3.7	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	@PHI	0.5%	28%	3.9	2.6	3.7

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd's last two outings have been quality starts. He's in a great spot to make it three with a home date against the Chicago White Sox. Boyd fanned 15 without issuing a walk over his last two efforts, spanning 12 innings. The White Sox strike out at an above average clip, in part fueling the fifth lowest wOBA in the league against left-handers.
Houston Astros RHP Ronel Blanco is also coming off consecutive quality starts, the last being eight shutout frames with 11 punchouts at home against the Reds. On Saturday, Blanco will take the hill in Globe Life Field to face a disappointing Rangers lineup averaging the fifth fewest runs per game in MLB. The hosts will be with SS Corey Seager, who is on the 10-day IL with a sore hamstring.
Usually, it's safe to wait on pitchers returning from a long layoff, particularly if they're likely on a pitch count. But when you're a future Hall of Famer, and you face one of the weakest lineups in the league, exceptions are made. Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw is slated to make his 2025 debut on Saturday, opposing the Los Angeles Angels in Chavez Ravine. The Angels sport the highest strikeout rate and second lowest wOBA versus southpaw pitching. Kershaw compiled 57 pitches in his final rehab outing, so five innings is plausible.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

Rangers RHP Tyler Mahle has yet to yield more than two runs in any of his eight starts this season, five of which were quality efforts. He's registered a 1.47 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. While it hasn't all been good fortune, Lady Luck has played a big part. Most notably, Mahle has benefited from a .216 BABIP, 4.1% home run per fly ball rate and a left on base mark of 88.2%. The regression monster is looming and will strike, perhaps as soon as Saturday night in Arlington against the Astros.

Hitters to stream on Saturday

Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has pitched better lately with a 2.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his prior three starts, but he's fanned just eight over those 14 1/3 innings. The associated 4.63 xFIP paints a more realistic picture. Checking on the availability of Philadelphia Phillies 2B Bryson Stott, OF Nick Castellanos, 1B/3B Alec Bohm and C J.T. Realmuto could pay dividends.
There was a time that streaming Colorado Rockies RHP German Marquez on the road was a sound strategy. Those days are gone, as evidenced by a 10.53 ERA and 1.83 in five starts away from Coors Field. The Arizona Diamondbacks are averaging the seventh most runs per game at home and should be able to pad that on Saturday against Marquez. The main targets are 3B Eugenio Suarez, 1B/OF Pavin Smith and recently promoted 3B/SS Jordan Lawlar.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.