Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

May 9, 2025, 03:35 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
11.3	Brady Singer	R	@HOU	56.2%	57%	5.8	2.4	5.4
11.1	Joe Ryan	R	SF	94.3%	55%	5.6	2.7	6.4
10.8	Carlos Rodon	L	@ATH	90.9%	51%	5.6	2.6	6.1
10.5	Ranger Suarez	L	@CLE	27.1%	51%	5.7	2.6	5.6
10.3	Garrett Crochet	L	@KC	99.8%	50%	5.5	2.6	6.4
10.2	Tylor Megill	R	CHC	57.3%	53%	5.3	2.1	5.6
10.2	Corbin Burnes	R	LAD	94.5%	51%	5.7	2.6	5.8
10.1	Logan Webb	R	@MIN	98.4%	45%	6.0	2.8	5.6
9.8	Bowden Francis	R	@SEA	45.2%	48%	5.2	2.4	5.0
9.5	Shane Smith	R	MIA	12.3%	50%	5.1	2.2	5.3
9.5	Cade Horton	R	@NYM	5.7%	47%	4.7	1.7	4.8
9.4	Cole Ragans	L	BOS	97.5%	50%	5.4	2.7	6.3
9.4	Tanner Bibee	R	PHI	73.7%	49%	5.5	2.7	5.6
8.8	Jack Flaherty	R	TEX	85.0%	47%	5.5	3.0	5.9
8.7	Edward Cabrera	R	@CWS	1.5%	50%	4.9	2.3	5.2
8.6	JP Sears	L	NYY	33.3%	49%	5.4	2.8	5.1
8.4	Jacob deGrom	R	@DET	92.8%	53%	4.8	2.3	4.7
8.3	Tobias Myers	R	@TB	2.5%	57%	5.2	2.4	4.2
8.1	Logan Evans	R	TOR	1.7%	52%	5.3	2.6	4.7
8.1	Taj Bradley	R	MIL	44.3%	43%	5.4	2.7	5.0
7.3	Kyle Gibson	R	@LAA	0.4%	59%	5.5	3.4	5.1
6.9	Andre Pallante	R	@WSH	3.9%	57%	5.2	2.7	4.2
6.8	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	CIN	10.2%	43%	4.4	2.2	4.5
6.7	Dustin May	R	@ARI	25.0%	49%	4.9	2.7	4.6
6.6	AJ Smith-Shawver	R	@PIT	10.7%	56%	4.8	2.7	4.9
6.2	Andrew Heaney	L	ATL	31.3%	44%	4.8	2.8	4.6
5.7	Trevor Williams	R	STL	0.5%	43%	5.1	3.1	4.3
3.9	Jack Kochanowicz	R	BAL	0.6%	41%	5.2	3.4	3.3
0.0	Stephen Kolek	R	@COL	1.4%	54%	4.3	4.8	4.6
-2.2	Bradley Blalock	R	SD	0.0%	46%	4.8	5.7	3.9

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

Atlanta Braves RHP AJ Smith-Shawver is coming off one of his best career outings. He tossed seven hitless frames before allowing a single to open the eighth. Smith-Shawver completed eight innings but walked four while fanning just five. Even so, he's in a great spot with a road date against the punchless Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chicago White Sox RHP Shane Smith introduced a changeup into his repertoire and even though he's still getting a feel for the pitch, it has been effective and will only get better. On Saturday, Smith enjoys a home start versus the Miami Marlins and their below average lineup.
In his 2025 debut earlier this week, Philadelphia Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez yielded seven runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The silver lining was six strikeouts. Expect a better effort in his second start, a road affair against the Cleveland Guardians and a lineup with an elevated 24.5% strikeout rate with a lefty in the hill.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

There are a few reasons to avoid Diamondbacks RHP Corbin Burnes. He missed his last start with shoulder inflammation, but he's been cleared for Saturday. More importantly, Burnes' strikeout rate remains in freefall and his sinker velocity is down a tick. Add in a home start against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Burnes lands outside of this weekend's circle of trust.

Hitters to stream on Saturday

The Baltimore Orioles sport the ninth lowest wOBA in the league but it's hard to envision that lineup remaining a bottom third lineup for much longer. Their ascent could begin on Saturday with a road date with RHP Jack Kochanowicz and the Los Angeles Angels. Kochanowicz has fanned only 20 in 37 1/3 stanzas while allowing seven homers. Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad all line up for productive games.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.