Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

May 7, 2025, 06:53 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
11.7	Bryan Woo	R	@ATH	86.8%	-160	8.5	50%	5.5	2.0	5.2
11.5	Cristopher Sanchez	L	@TB	80.7%	-125	8.5	52%	5.7	2.1	5.2
11.4	Sonny Gray	R	PIT	93.5%	-175	7.5	54%	5.7	2.3	5.7
11.3	Max Fried	L	SD	99.3%	-180	7.5	52%	5.8	2.2	5.7
11.1	Kodai Senga	R	@ARI	87.8%	-130	8.5	57%	5.5	2.3	6.1
10.9	Hunter Greene	R	@ATL	97.8%	-110	7.5	50%	5.7	2.8	6.3
10.8	Dylan Cease	R	@NYY	93.5%	+150	7.5	48%	5.6	2.5	6.2
10.2	Framber Valdez	L	@MIL	93.3%	-130	7.5	56%	5.8	2.7	5.9
10.1	Shane Baz	R	PHI	59.3%	+105	8.5	48%	5.5	2.2	5.0
9.8	Merrill Kelly	R	NYM	22.6%	+110	8.5	43%	5.6	2.6	5.5
9.7	Gunnar Hoglund	R	SEA	12.8%	+135	8.5	50%	5.3	2.3	4.5
9.7	Mitch Keller	R	@STL	50.1%	+145	7.5	46%	5.9	2.7	5.1
8.9	Michael Wacha	R	CWS	20.0%	-225	8.5	60%	5.5	2.8	4.9
8.7	Yusei Kikuchi	L	TOR	55.6%	+105	8.5	46%	5.5	2.9	5.3
8.6	Ben Brown	R	SF	4.6%	-150	7.5	51%	4.8	2.2	5.2
8.3	Landon Knack	R	@MIA	0.7%	-235	9.5	54%	4.7	2.0	4.2
8.3	Grant Holmes	R	CIN	13.0%	-110	7.5	50%	5.1	2.7	5.4
8.2	Jose Berrios	R	@LAA	57.0%	-125	8.5	54%	5.7	3.2	5.0
8.1	Robbie Ray	L	@CHC	62.2%	+125	7.5	49%	4.9	2.4	5.2
7.8	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	BAL	2.0%	-145	9.5	58%	4.9	2.5	4.7
7.3	Charlie Morton	R	@MIN	2.6%	+120	9.5	42%	5.4	3.1	5.4
7.1	Quinn Priester	R	HOU	0.9%	+110	7.5	44%	5.3	2.9	4.7
6.8	Logan Allen	L	@WSH	3.8%	-130	9.5	55%	5.2	2.9	4.3
6.8	Tyler Mahle	R	@BOS	76.9%	+105	9.5	52%	4.9	2.8	4.7
6.8	Tanner Houck	R	TEX	36.3%	-125	9.5	48%	5.3	3.2	4.8
6.8	Valente Bellozo	R	LAD	0.1%	+195	9.5	46%	5.0	2.6	4.2
6.8	Michael Soroka	R	CLE	0.9%	+110	9.5	45%	5.1	2.8	4.1
5.2	Jonathan Cannon	R	@KC	1.3%	+185	8.5	40%	5.3	3.3	4.2
5.2	Jackson Jobe	R	@COL	24.6%	-180	9.5	63%	4.8	3.6	4.8
-0.4	Chase Dollander	R	DET	2.5%	+150	9.5	37%	4.8	5.6	4.9

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

Kansas City Royals RHP Michael Wacha has posted two straight quality starts and is in a great spot for a third with a home date against the Chicago White Sox. Wacha doesn't pile up many strikeouts, but he limits traffic on the bases and goes deep into games, which benefits all types of fantasy scoring. The White Sox average the second-fewest runs per game and are less potent on the road than at home.
Control has been the only issue for Chicago Cubs RHP Ben Brown as he makes the transition from swingman to full-time starter. He has fanned 35 batters in 31 1/3 innings and yielded only three homers, but he has issued 14 free passes. However, he walked only one batter over his last 9 2/3 innings and none over six frames in his last outing. Brown faces the San Francisco Giants in Wrigley Field. The Giants exhibit an average level of patience, but they sport below-average power and strike out at an above-average clip, so if Brown maintains his control, he lines up for an effective effort.
Boston Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck's numbers might never fully recover from his mid-April road outing against the Tampa Bay Rays where he surrendered 11 earned runs and 10 hits in just 2 1/3 innings. However, take away that disaster and he's sporting a palatable 3.93 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, albeit with only 29 punchouts in those 34 1/3 innings. Houck gets a chance to chip away at his 6.38 ERA with a favorable home matchup against a Texas Rangers offense averaging the second-fewest runs per game in MLB.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

A 1.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP has Rangers RHP Tyler Mahle rostered in almost 75% of ESPN leagues. The catch is that Mahle hasn't yielded a homer in 37 2/3 innings while allowing just 23 hits. Both are due for a correction, punctuated by ERA estimators around 4.00. The Red Sox boast one of the top offenses at home, so it's best to avoid Mahle for this risky encounter at Fenway Park.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

The Royals are averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game in MLB, but they have a chance to pad their total on Wednesday with a juicy home matchup against White Sox RHP Jonathan Cannon. Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Jonathan India and Kyle Isbel are the chief targets.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.62 EV
One reason to bet this: Sutter Health Park profiles as the No. 5 field in the game for right-handed home runs, via my projections.

James Wood | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.92 EV
One reason to bet this: Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in todays game.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.57 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately. Just compare his 95.7-mph average over the past week to his overall 2025 average of 93.1 mph.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Jose Berrios | UNDER 5.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Berrios has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.97 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 7.51 - a 0.46 K/9 deviation.

Quinn Priester | OVER 4.5 K (+125)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.93 EV
One reason to bet this: American Family Field profiles as the No. 1 ballpark in baseball for strikeouts, via my projections.

Gunnar Hoglund | OVER 3.5 K (-125)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.47 EV
One reason to bet this: Hoglund was in good form in his last start and compiled seven strikeouts.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Giants @ Cubs | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $3.79 EV

Orioles @ Twins | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 51% chance of NO RUN with a $2.30 EV

Astros @ Brewers | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $2.42 EV