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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream on Friday
The numbers and names on the back of the Colorado Rockies road uniforms have changed over the years but one thing remains the same: the club struggles facing left-handers outside of Coors Field. It's been demonstrated that it takes a few games for batters to adjust after playing a series in Coors Field and since almost 75% of pitchers are righties, it follows that Colorado hitters have more trouble facing southpaws since they don't see them as much. On Friday, LHP Robbie Ray and the San Francisco Giants host the Rockies, who are playing their second game after a six-game homestand.
Boston Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello was initially scheduled to start on Saturday, but with Walker Buehler scratched tonight due to shoulder soreness, Bello moves up a day. He'll be working on regular rest when he takes the hill in Fenway Park against the Minnesota Twins. Bello's command and control are rusty, but he's coming off a quality start and faces a Twins lineup missing key cogs Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner and Luke Keaschall.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Avoiding Twins RHP Joe Ryan isn't a hard pass, but those in a tight head-to-head matchup heading into the weekend may want to look elsewhere for his road affair in Fenway Park. The Red Sox offense isn't fully clicking yet, but they're still one of the better units at home, and they've been striking out less lately. All five of the homers Ryan has yielded and 10 of the 12 earned runs came in two outings. He's posting a 0.75 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over his other four outings, but the two subpar efforts render the righty as a risk.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: D | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.36 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.80 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.32 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.26 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.19 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Cleveland Guardians LHP Logan Allen recorded a 2.11 ERA over his first four stats, but a 5.03 xFIP warned of regression. Sure enough, Allen's ERA nearly doubled after surrendering seven runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Red Sox. Next up is a Toronto Blue Jays lineup replete with solid righty swingers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is universally rostered, but Bo Bichette and George Springer are available in 30% of ESPN leagues with Andres Gimenez, Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement also in the mix.
Hitters to avoid on Friday
The Philadelphia Phillies hitters struggle against pitches classified as slow or breaking balls. On Friday, they face RHP Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly, whose repertoire consists of over 60% slow and breaking pitches. Sticking with lefty's Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber makes sense, but other Phillies should be avoided.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: F | Park: A | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .339 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Angels batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .267 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets RHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Kyle Isbel | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $37.28 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs). This game is projected to have the highest temperature of the day at 82 degrees.
Triston Casas | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.10 EV
One reason to bet this: When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Casas has suffered from bad luck this year. His .260 mark falls considerably below my projection of Statcast-based expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .314.
Oswaldo Cabrera | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.80 EV
One reason to bet this: This matchup is predicted to have the third-worst favorable weather for pitching among all games scheduled today.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Ryan Pepiot | UNDER 5.5 K (-120)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.01 EV
One reason to bet this: This matchup is predicted to have the third-worst favorable weather for pitching among all games scheduled today.
Ben Brown | UNDER 5.5 K (-135)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.53 EV
One reason to bet this: Brown has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 10.60 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.85 - a 0.75 K/9 disparity.
Dean Kremer | OVER 3.5 K (-130)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Kremer has averaged 95.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Guardians @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $4.37 EV
Tigers @ Angels | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $4.50 EV
Mets @ Cardinals | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $0.64 EV