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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream on Monday
Only two of Monday's 16 scheduled starters are rostered in over half of ESPN Fantasy leagues, so while there may not be any to avoid, there are several solid streamers, with Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Dustin May leading the pack. He was hit hard last time out, but a home game facing the Miami Marlins is a good rebound opportunity. Through the first month of the season, the Marlins offense is in the middle of the pack in terms of production, but they strike out at a slightly above-average pace.
Houston Astros RHP Ronel Blanco hasn't carried over last season's success but he is showing signs of getting back on track. Last time out, he yielded just one run over 6 2/3 innings, albeit with only three strikeouts. On Monday, Blanco will face the Detroit Tigers, who are struggling on the road, fueled by a 26.1% strikeout rate outside of Comerica Park.
Cleveland Guardians RHP Gavin Williams is coming off his best game of the season, fanning eight New York Yankees over 6 1/3 innings. He's missed bats all season with 26 punchouts in 26 frames, but he's also walked 12 while surrendering four longballs. On Monday, Williams is slated for a home date with a Minnesota Twins lineup missing some key pieces. Williams should be able to build upon his last effort.
While their bullpen struggled, New York Mets starting pitching stifled the Washington Nationals offense over the weekend with RHP Griffin Canning scheduled for the wraparound Monday affair. With 13 strikeouts over his past 11 innings, Canning is set up for another solid outing.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.81 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Braves hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.44 ERA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.31 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.87 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
It's the Atlanta Braves turn to take advantage of the weak Colorado Rockies pitching rotation in Coors Field. RHP Ryan Feltner gets the call for the home team, landing C Sean Murphy, OF Alex Verdugo and OF Jarred Kelenic in prime hitting spots.
One of the better venues to look outside of Coors Field for Monday lineup fortification is Arlington with the Texas Rangers hosting the Athletics. Both clubs will start southpaws with Patrick Corbin on the hill for the home team and JP Sears toeing the rubber for the visitors. Righty swinging Jake Burger and Josh Jung along with switch hitters Jonah Heim and Josh Smith stand out for the Rangers. Jacob Wilson and Miguel Andujar are the Athletics' best options.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Braves pitchers
The average hitter would post a .353 wOBA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Miami Marlins RHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
The average hitter would post a .291 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. Tigers pitchers
The average hitter would post a .295 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.14 EV
One reason to bet this: Chisholm has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 10% rate from last year to 16.7%.
Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Compared to his seasonal average of 23.4 degrees, Mullins has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 29.4-degree angle over the past 14 days.
Ben Rice | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.77 EV
One reason to bet this: Rice has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.6% rate from last year to 22.8%.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Trevor Williams | UNDER 3.5 K (+120)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.85 EV
One reason to bet this: Carlos Torres, anticipated to be behind the plate today, projects as a "huge hitter's umpire."
Will Warren | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Warren has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts, putting up a 10.38 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 8.30 -- a 2.08 K/9 discrepancy.
Edward Cabrera | UNDER 5.5 K (-140)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.19 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Cabrera has had positive variance on his side when it comes to his strikeouts, posting a 10.14 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.70 -- a 0.44 K/9 disparity.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Yankees @ Orioles | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of RUN with a $3.96 EV
Braves @ Rockies | NRFI (+120)
Projection: 46% chance of NO RUN with a $0.28 EV