Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

Todd ZolaApr 24, 2025, 05:00 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.7	Paul Skenes	R	@LAD	99.8%	52%	5.8	1.7	6.6
14.0	Logan Gilbert	R	MIA	99.6%	62%	6.0	2.2	6.3
13.5	Pablo Lopez	R	LAA	93.4%	69%	6.0	2.4	6.7
12.6	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	PIT	99.6%	48%	6.0	2.2	6.4
12.4	Michael King	R	TB	97.4%	52%	5.6	1.9	6.0
11.8	Kodai Senga	R	@WSH	86.7%	64%	5.6	2.3	6.2
11.7	Shane Baz	R	@SD	66.2%	48%	5.6	1.9	5.4
11.3	Nathan Eovaldi	R	@SF	85.4%	51%	5.7	2.2	5.4
11.1	Chris Sale	L	@ARI	94.5%	58%	5.6	2.5	6.1
10.3	Luis Severino	R	CWS	26.7%	63%	5.8	2.7	5.2
9.6	Justin Verlander	R	TEX	11.4%	49%	5.7	2.6	5.0
9.6	Jose Berrios	R	@NYY	53.5%	55%	5.7	2.8	5.4
9.2	Seth Lugo	R	HOU	61.7%	54%	5.9	3.0	4.9
9.1	Zac Gallen	R	ATL	86.0%	42%	5.6	2.9	5.8
8.2	Colin Rea	R	PHI	0.9%	53%	5.2	2.8	4.8
8.1	Tanner Houck	R	@CLE	38.6%	55%	5.3	2.7	4.7
7.6	Hayden Wesneski	R	@KC	19.5%	46%	5.1	2.8	4.6
7.4	Jake Irvin	R	NYM	18.0%	36%	5.4	3.0	4.8
7.3	Casey Mize	R	BAL	42.3%	47%	5.1	2.7	4.4
7.3	Chad Patrick	R	@STL	2.5%	50%	4.9	2.5	4.3
7.2	Matthew Liberatore	L	MIL	9.7%	50%	4.8	2.3	4.2
6.9	Ben Lively	R	BOS	2.1%	45%	5.1	2.9	4.7
6.8	Brandon Young	R	@DET	0.2%	53%	4.6	2.5	4.2
6.4	Sean Burke	R	@ATH	2.1%	37%	4.8	2.8	4.5
6.2	Taijuan Walker	R	@CHC	6.2%	47%	5.1	2.9	4.4
6.0	Kyle Hendricks	R	@MIN	1.3%	31%	5.1	2.8	4.0
5.9	Cal Quantrill	R	@SEA	0.3%	38%	5.1	2.8	4.2
4.7	Carlos Carrasco	R	TOR	0.8%	45%	4.7	3.0	3.8
4.0	Andrew Abbott	L	@COL	20.2%	60%	5.2	4.9	5.8
-1.5	Kyle Freeland	L	CIN	2.9%	40%	4.9	5.8	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Athletics RHP Luis Severino rebounded from a pair of subpar efforts with two solid outings, including yielding just one earned run over eight innings in his prior start, on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers. Severino returns home for a matchup with the Chicago White Sox. Through Wednesday's action, the White Sox have averaged the second-fewest runs per game in MLB.
We're at the point of the season where early season success necessitates reevaluating initial expectations. St. Louis Cardinals LHP Matthew Liberatore is a prime example. The lefty entered the season with a 4.99 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and was earmarked for the bullpen. A strong spring earned Liberatore another start in the rotation and he has delivered four efforts hurling at least six frames, recording three quality starts. The key is fanning 24 with just two walks in 25 frames. Liberatore isn't experiencing a change in velocity, nor has he significantly altered his pitch mix, other than trading some sinkers for changeups. The main difference is that Liberatore is pounding the zone, throwing strikes at a 67.3% clip compared to his career 63.2% level. There is no guarantee Liberatore maintains his control gains, but his early success merits streaming consideration. On Friday, the lefty has a home date with the Brewers and their below average walk rate.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Zac Gallen is experiencing the opposite as Liberatore as Gallen's 58.2% strike mark is well below his career level, fueling a high 10.7% walk rate. The Atlanta Braves visit Chase Field on Friday. Their offense started slowly but has been one of the most productive in the league for the last week. Gallen's uncharacteristic control issues are too risky to trust.
Minnesota Twins RHP Pablo Lopez is ticketed to return from the IL for a home start against the Los Angeles Angels. This isn't a hard pass. In season-long rotisserie leagues, Lopez is in play, facing a lineup with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate. However, the Twins bullpen is solid so Lopez may not work deep into the game, especially since he managed only 4 2/3 innings in his sole rehab start. There are likely better options in leagues with a games started maximum.

Hitters to stream on Friday

The Cincinnati Reds open a weekend set in Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies sending LHP Kyle Freeland to the hill. Several right-handed (or switch-hitting) batters are widely available in ESPN leagues, including Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain, Austin Hays, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.