Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Friday
Athletics RHP Luis Severino rebounded from a pair of subpar efforts with two solid outings, including yielding just one earned run over eight innings in his prior start, on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers. Severino returns home for a matchup with the Chicago White Sox. Through Wednesday's action, the White Sox have averaged the second-fewest runs per game in MLB.
We're at the point of the season where early season success necessitates reevaluating initial expectations. St. Louis Cardinals LHP Matthew Liberatore is a prime example. The lefty entered the season with a 4.99 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and was earmarked for the bullpen. A strong spring earned Liberatore another start in the rotation and he has delivered four efforts hurling at least six frames, recording three quality starts. The key is fanning 24 with just two walks in 25 frames. Liberatore isn't experiencing a change in velocity, nor has he significantly altered his pitch mix, other than trading some sinkers for changeups. The main difference is that Liberatore is pounding the zone, throwing strikes at a 67.3% clip compared to his career 63.2% level. There is no guarantee Liberatore maintains his control gains, but his early success merits streaming consideration. On Friday, the lefty has a home date with the Brewers and their below average walk rate.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Zac Gallen is experiencing the opposite as Liberatore as Gallen's 58.2% strike mark is well below his career level, fueling a high 10.7% walk rate. The Atlanta Braves visit Chase Field on Friday. Their offense started slowly but has been one of the most productive in the league for the last week. Gallen's uncharacteristic control issues are too risky to trust.
Minnesota Twins RHP Pablo Lopez is ticketed to return from the IL for a home start against the Los Angeles Angels. This isn't a hard pass. In season-long rotisserie leagues, Lopez is in play, facing a lineup with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate. However, the Twins bullpen is solid so Lopez may not work deep into the game, especially since he managed only 4 2/3 innings in his sole rehab start. There are likely better options in leagues with a games started maximum.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.27 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.74 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.79 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.33 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.85 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.82 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Friday
The Cincinnati Reds open a weekend set in Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies sending LHP Kyle Freeland to the hill. Several right-handed (or switch-hitting) batters are widely available in ESPN leagues, including Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain, Austin Hays, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Reds pitchers
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. Rockies pitchers
The average hitter would post a .332 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
The average hitter would post a .328 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Miami Marlins RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
The average hitter would post a .264 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates LHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
The average hitter would post a .264 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Padres pitchers
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Oswaldo Cabrera | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Yankee Stadium has the eighth-lowest average fence height in the majors.
Kyle Isbel | OVER 0.5 HR (+1600)
Projection: 7% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.29 EV
One reason to bet this: Isbel's launch angle this year (14.8 degrees) is quite a bit better than his 8.8 degrees figure last year.
Ben Rice | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Rice has made sizable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 15.6% rate last year to 24.5% this year.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Matthew Liberatore | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.69 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 9 venue in the majors for suppressing strikeouts, according to my projections, is Busch Stadium.
Kyle Freeland | OVER 3.5 K (-110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.85 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.0 mph in this contest, the fourth-strongest of the day.
Nathan Eovaldi | UNDER 5.5 K (-150)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Oracle Park profiles as the No. 27 venue in baseball for strikeouts, per my projections.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Brewers @ Cardinals | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.52 EV
Marlins @ Mariners | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $1.20 EV