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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Last season, San Francisco Giants RHP Landen Roupp recorded a 21.7% strikeout rate in 50 1/3 innings, a mark well below his norm in the minors. It's only 22 frames, but the 26-year-old righty has fanned 31.2% of hitters this season. Next up is a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that puts the ball in play, but they're experiencing a steep park downgrade on the road in Oracle Park.
The Chicago White Sox are destined for the AL Central basement but it's clear that they have a plan: Building around young starting pitching. One of the pieces is RHP Shane Smith, acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers with the first pick in the 2024 Rule 5 draft. Most Rule 5 hurlers spend the first season with their new club toiling in low leverage scenarios, but Smith has been thrust into the limelight, starting four games, two of which were quality efforts. Thursday brings a divisional matchup on the road against the Minnesota Twins and the lineup sporting the third lowest wOBA and averaging the fifth fewest runs per game in the league.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
After opening the season with eight punchouts in 4 1/3 frames, Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Corbin Burnes has fanned just three in each of his three subsequent starts. His strikeout rate has fallen for four straight season and now he's working on a fifth. His two-seam fastball and cutter velocity are both down over 1-mph. On Thursday, Burnes has a home date with the Tampa Bay Rays. The visitor's lineup isn't imposing, but they don't strike out. It's best to avoid Burnes until his velocity picks up and he misses more bats.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A+ | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.28 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.59 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: F | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.89 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Royals hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.77 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.74 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
The Pittsburgh Pirates have rotation reinforcements coming but they're currently saddled with sending RHP Carmen Mlodzinski and his 7.41 ERA and 2.00 WHIP to the hill every fifth day or so. The Los Angeles Angels draw Mlodzinski at home in Angels Stadium. Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Logan O'Hoppe, Jorge Soler, Kyren Paris and Nolan Schanuel are all options to fortify a Thursday lineup dampened with an abbreviated right-game ledger.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Umpire: A+ | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels LHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .336 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .326 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .285 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Umpire: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Tyler Soderstrom | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Compared to last season, Soderstrom has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23-34 degrees from 17.5% to 22.1% this season.
Mickey Moniak | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Moniak's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13% to 23.4%.
Triston Casas | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.32 EV
One reason to bet this: Casas has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Mariners has just one same-handed RP.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Drew Rasmussen | UNDER 2.5 ER (-160)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.33 EV
One reason to bet this: Chase Field projects as the No. 30 stadium in baseball for home runs, via my projections.
German Marquez | OVER 3.5 K (-110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all starters, Marquez's fastball velocity of 95 mph is in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.
J.T. Ginn | UNDER 2.5 ER (-130)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Ginn is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.5% GB% via my projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park - the No. 7 HR venue in the majors - in this matchup.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Rockies @ Royals | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $6.51 EV
White Sox @ Twins | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $5.73 EV
Rangers @ Athletics | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $1.29 EV