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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
The Cincinnati Reds visit South Beach for a matchup with the Miami Marlins. RHP Brady Singer gets the ball for the Reds. Three of his four starts have been in hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, but the ground ball specialist has posted a 2.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home. In his sole road effort, Singer surrendered three runs in five frames to the Milwaukee Brewers, but the Marlins are a less potent offense in a better pitching venue.
With Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes struggling, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is showing signs of returning to form for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The lefty only has one win in four outings, but he's fanned 29 while issuing only six walks in 22 innings. Next up is a home affair with the Tampa Bay Rays. Splits facing left-handed pitching can be misleading early in the season, but the Rays' struggles could be real with their right-handed lineup being devoid of Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe. Plus, this will be just the fourth road game of the season for the Rays, as their schedule is front loaded with home games to avoid the summer heat in Tampa Bay.
Only six of Wednesday's starters are rostered in over half of all ESPN leagues and no one should be avoided, so here is a bonus streamer. Other than a blip on the road against the Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates LHP Andrew Heaney has been stellar, allowing just two runs in 19 1/3 innings. The southpaw should register his fourth strong effort over five outings with a road tilt in Anaheim facing a weak Los Angeles Angels lineup fanning at an above average clip.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Padres hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.43 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.83 ERA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.85 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.01 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.81 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.78 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Injuries are forcing the Atlanta Braves to send RHP Bryce Elder to the Truist Park hill, despite the righty posting a 6.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 starts over the past two seasons. The St. Louis Cardinals' wOBA is a surprising sixth best in MLB, and it should get better facing Elder. Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson are the main beneficiaries.
Hitters to avoid on Wednesday
With so many lineups in a favorable spot on Wednesday, consider benching Milwaukee Brewers batters for their road date with RHP Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants. The hitters are experiencing a steep park downgrade and are facing a hurler with an impressive 38 punchouts in 30 frames.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .356 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .261 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: F | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.18 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year. Just compare his 98.4-mph average to last season's 95-mph EV.
Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.49 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1 mph in this game, the fourth-best of the day for batters.
Luis Garcia Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme groundball batters like Garcia usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Kumar Rocker | OVER 3.5 K (-150)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Doug Eddings profiles as a huge "pitcher's umpire" and is expected to be calling pitches in this game.
Carlos Rodon | UNDER 6.5 K (-150)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.93 EV
One reason to bet this: With seven batters who hit from the opposite side in the projected lineup, Rodon encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.
Zack Wheeler | UNDER 6.5 K (-100)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Wheeler has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 11.78 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be at 10.17 - a 1.61 K/9 difference.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Reds @ Marlins | NRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $3.27 EV
Brewers @ Giants | NRFI (-150)
Projection: 61% chance of NO RUN with a $3.10 EV
Orioles @ Nationals | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $1.41 EV