Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Todd ZolaApr 19, 2025, 11:00 AM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.5	Paul Skenes	R	CLE	99.8%	-175	7.5	63%	5.8	1.8	6.4
14.2	Kodai Senga	R	STL	84.8%	-175	8.5	62%	5.9	1.8	6.5
13.0	Logan Gilbert	R	@TOR	99.6%	-125	8.5	56%	6.1	2.3	5.7
12.4	Hunter Greene	R	@BAL	96.8%	EVEN	9.5	56%	5.9	2.5	6.4
12.4	Michael King	R	@HOU	97.0%	-115	7.5	53%	5.5	2.1	6.4
11.1	Chris Sale	L	MIN	96.0%	-200	7.5	52%	5.5	2.6	6.3
10.4	Shane Baz	R	NYY	72.9%	-130	9.5	55%	5.5	2.4	5.6
10.4	Roki Sasaki	R	@TEX	81.2%	-105	8.5	53%	6.1	3.2	6.2
10.2	Garrett Crochet	L	CWS	99.6%	-340	8.5	59%	5.1	2.5	6.3
10.2	Seth Lugo	R	@DET	66.5%	+105	7.5	53%	5.9	2.8	5.3
9.9	Zac Gallen	R	@CHC	90.5%	-105	7.5	55%	5.6	2.7	5.8
9.6	Hayden Wesneski	R	SD	19.5%	-105	7.5	47%	5.1	2.3	5.0
9.5	Jose Berrios	R	SEA	57.1%	+105	8.5	44%	5.7	2.8	5.5
9.1	Landen Roupp	R	@LAA	5.2%	-145	8.5	59%	5.2	2.6	5.2
9.0	Nathan Eovaldi	R	LAD	83.8%	-115	8.5	47%	5.4	2.8	5.4
8.8	Shane Smith	R	@BOS	8.5%	+270	8.5	41%	5.0	2.4	5.3
8.3	Matthew Liberatore	L	@NYM	5.6%	+145	8.5	38%	4.8	2.0	4.5
7.8	Ben Brown	R	ARI	2.8%	-115	7.5	45%	4.7	2.3	5.1
7.7	Brandon Young	R	CIN	0.1%	-120	9.5	44%	5.2	2.8	4.9
7.7	Luis Severino	R	@MIL	23.8%	+105	8.5	50%	5.5	3.1	5.0
7.3	Ben Lively	R	@PIT	2.2%	+145	7.5	37%	5.2	2.7	4.5
7.0	Taijuan Walker	R	MIA	10.4%	-215	10.5	52%	5.2	3.0	4.9
6.7	Casey Mize	R	KC	35.7%	-125	7.5	47%	5.1	2.8	4.1
6.4	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	@ATL	1.7%	+165	7.5	48%	4.9	2.9	4.5
6.1	Chad Patrick	R	ATH	1.8%	-125	8.5	50%	4.7	2.8	4.2
5.3	Kyle Hendricks	R	SF	2.1%	+120	8.5	41%	5.1	3.1	3.9
5.3	Cal Quantrill	R	@PHI	0.6%	+180	10.5	48%	5.1	3.2	4.1
4.9	Carlos Carrasco	R	@TB	0.9%	+110	9.5	45%	4.7	3.0	4.0
0.7	MacKenzie Gore	L	@COL	79.5%	-145	9.5	48%	4.8	5.5	6.1
0.5	Chase Dollander	R	WSH	8.5%	+115	8.5	52%	4.8	5.2	4.8

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

San Francisco Giants RHP Landen Roupp is off to an uneven start to the season. His 29.9% strikeout rate is near elite, and he has only surrendered one homer in 15 frames. However, the 26-year-old has allowed a lot of traffic with a 10.4% walk rate and a high .410 BABIP. The BABIP is due for a correction, but walks have always been an issue for Roupp. On Saturday, Roupp faces an impatient Los Angeles Angels lineup that is striking out at the eighth-highest clip in the league, setting him up for a solid effort.
St. Louis Cardinals LHP Matthew Liberatore has pitched better than his 3.93 ERA suggests. The irony is that the mark represents a career best and exceeds expectations but is victimized by a low 60.2% left on base rate. It's only 18⅓ innings, but Liberatore is exhibiting much better command and control, with just one free pass and one homer allowed over his three appearances. Next up is a road game in pitcher friendly Citi Field, facing a Mets lineup that has struggled facing southpaws.
Detroit Tigers RHP Casey Mize introduced a cutter to his repertoire at the expense of his knuckle curve and a few sliders. Even though he was hit hard in his last outing, overall Mize has demonstrated improvement. Mize is in a great spot to get back on track, with a home date against the Kansas City Royals who will tote the league's lowest wOBA versus righties into Comerica Park.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

This could be considered low-hanging fruit, but in leagues with a games started limit, or if you are in a tight battle in a head-to-head league, avoiding Texas Rangers RHP Nathan Eovaldi for his home affair with the Los Angeles Dodgers is the safe play. The veteran's velocity is down, and his average exit velocity allowed and HardHit% are both up.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Saturday

New York Yankees RHP Carlos Carrasco has pitched better than his 5.94 ERA indicates, but he's still a below-average hurler with five homers allowed in 16⅔ innings. Lefty-swinging Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe are both candidates to take advantage of Carrasco's generosity.

Hitters to avoid on Saturday

It won't be snowing in Denver, but it will still be a cold and uncomfortable at bat for the Colorado Rockies with LHP MacKenzie Gore on the hill. Rockies' right-handers Kyle Farmer, Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar and Sean Bouchard may seem like options with the platoon edge, but it's best to resist the temptation.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $49.83 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits many of his fly balls to center field (39.4% -- 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out toward MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fence in today's game.

George Springer | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.06 EV
One reason to bet this: In comparison to his 87.4 mph average last year, Springer's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.6 mph.

Alec Burleson | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.80 EV
One reason to bet this: Burleson has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his fly balls (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's fourth-shallowest LF fence in today's game.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Jose Berrios | OVER 2.5 ER (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.09 EV
One reason to bet this: With six batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Berrios will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances.

Chris Sale | OVER 7.5 K (+110)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.47 EV
One reason to bet this: The Twins have four bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per my projections) (DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien).

Roki Sasaki | OVER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.08 EV
One reason to bet this: Globe Life Field grades out as the No. 6 ballpark in the game for strikeouts, via my projections.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

White Sox @ Red Sox | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $2.93 EV

D-Backs @ Cubs | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $0.62 EV