Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

Todd ZolaApr 20, 2025, 10:30 AM ET
Close
Follow on X

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league

STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.8	Sonny Gray	R	@NYM	95.3%	+120	7.5	53%	5.8	1.8	6.2
13.4	Tarik Skubal	L	KC	99.8%	-210	6.5	56%	5.9	2.1	6.1
13.2	Jesus Luzardo	L	MIA	85.8%	-340	8.5	59%	5.8	2.4	6.7
12.8	Tyler Glasnow	R	@TEX	94.9%	-160	8.5	60%	5.7	2.4	6.7
12.2	Dylan Cease	R	@HOU	97.4%	EVEN	7.5	49%	5.7	2.3	6.9
12.0	Framber Valdez	L	SD	96.7%	-120	7.5	51%	5.9	2.3	6.1
11.6	Logan Henderson	R	ATH	1.5%	-130	8.5	58%	5.5	2.4	5.6
11.6	Luis Castillo	R	@TOR	96.1%	-120	8.5	55%	6.1	2.6	5.6
10.6	Clay Holmes	R	STL	45.9%	-145	7.5	47%	5.4	2.0	5.5
9.8	Joe Ryan	R	@ATL	94.1%	EVEN	7.5	57%	5.4	3.0	6.0
9.7	Merrill Kelly	R	@CHC	21.5%	+110	7.5	50%	5.6	2.7	5.6
9.5	Max Fried	L	@TB	98.9%	-155	7.5	55%	5.4	2.5	5.7
9.4	Ryan Pepiot	R	NYY	25.1%	+130	7.5	45%	5.2	2.4	5.1
9.3	Mitch Keller	R	CLE	59.5%	-115	8.5	53%	5.9	3.0	5.4
9.2	Michael Wacha	R	@DET	13.0%	+175	6.5	44%	5.5	2.6	5.0
8.8	Easton Lucas	L	SEA	11.8%	EVEN	8.5	45%	4.9	2.1	4.8
8.7	Yusei Kikuchi	L	SF	68.4%	-105	8.5	48%	5.4	3.0	5.5
8.6	Jameson Taillon	R	ARI	8.3%	-130	7.5	50%	5.5	2.8	4.6
8.4	Charlie Morton	R	CIN	5.5%	-180	9.5	62%	5.5	3.1	5.5
8.1	Tanner Houck	R	CWS	43.1%	-285	9.5	66%	5.3	2.9	4.9
7.8	Jeffrey Springs	L	@MIL	19.4%	+110	8.5	42%	5.1	2.6	4.8
7.6	Grant Holmes	R	MIN	13.5%	-120	7.5	43%	4.9	2.6	5.1
7.6	Connor Gillispie	R	@PHI	0.8%	+270	8.5	41%	4.9	2.7	4.9
7.2	Logan Allen	L	@PIT	9.6%	-105	8.5	47%	5.2	2.8	4.7
7.2	Justin Verlander	R	@LAA	12.2%	-115	8.5	52%	5.5	3.3	4.9
6.5	Tyler Mahle	R	LAD	47.2%	+135	8.5	40%	4.4	2.4	4.3
3.7	Sean Burke	R	@BOS	2.5%	+230	9.5	34%	4.5	3.4	4.3
1.8	Randall Wynne	R	@BAL	0.0%	+150	9.5	38%	4.4	3.7	3.2
1.7	Jake Irvin	R	@COL, Gm. 1	13.4%	-120	10.5	52%	5.1	5.2	5.0
0.6	Brad Lord	R	@COL, Gm. 2	0.4%	-120	10.5	56%	3.3	3.5	3.4
-0.4	Kyle Freeland	L	WSH, Gm. 1	5.4%	EVEN	10.5	48%	5.1	5.6	4.1
-3.6	Antonio Senzatela	R	WSH, Gm. 2	0.2%	EVEN	10.5	44%	4.2	5.7	3.5

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

Last time out, Boston Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck was crushed for 11 earned runs in only 2 1/3 innings. It's going to take a while to bring his ERA down to a respectable level, but Sunday's home start against the Chicago White Sox is the ideal first step.
New York Mets RHP Clay Holmes' transition to the rotation is still a work in progress, but there are encouraging signs. Specifically, the former Yankees closer has rung up 18 hitters over his last two outings, spanning 10 1/3 innings. He also walked five, but the damage has been minimal since he hasn't yet surrendered any home runs this season. On Sunday, Holmes faces a St. Louis Cardinals lineup with below-average power in spacious Citi Field.

Pitchers to avoid on Sunday

The Cleveland Guardians lineup isn't imposing, but they put the ball in play and will accept walks. This is the type of offense that can give Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Mitch Keller a hard time. Keller has fanned only 17 batters over 23 innings while issuing eight walks. Especially on the final day of the head-to-head scoring week, there are safer options.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Sunday

Often, we'll point out an under-the-radar target for hitting in points leagues, but when a doubleheader is scheduled in Coors Field, there is no reason to overthink matters. The four scheduled starters are all at the bottom of Sunday's rankings. The Washington Nationals are sending two righties to the hill, giving Colorado Rockies' lefties Ryan McMahon and Zac Veen an edge, along with switch-hitter Michael Toglia. The Rockies are deploying one lefty and one righty, giving Nathaniel Lowe, Dylan Crews and Amed Rosario the best chance to start both ends of the twinbill.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Jonathan Aranda | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.47 EV
One reason to bet this: Aranda's 93 mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the game since the start of last season (96th percentile).

LaMonte Wade Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.88 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1 mph in this matchup, the best of the day for hitters.

Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.01 EV
One reason to bet this: McLain hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (39% -- 88th percentile), which sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out toward the league's fourth-shallowest CF fence in today's game.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Charlie Morton | OVER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $37.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Morton's fastball spin rate has increased 103 rpm this season (2352 rpm) from where it was last season (2249 rpm).

Jameson Taillon | UNDER 1.5 ER (+125)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.61 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 16.1 mph in this contest, the best of the day for mound aces.

Jake Irvin | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.50 EV
One reason to bet this: The Colorado Rockies have six batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Irvin in this game.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Reds @ Orioles | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $8.54 EV

Mariners @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $6.18 EV

Nationals @ Rockies | NRFI (+110)
Projection: 48% chance of NO RUN with a $0.38 EV