Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

ESPN Fantasy

Apr 7, 2025, 08:19 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR MONDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.4	Kodai Senga	R	MIA	82.6%	-250	7.5	64%	5.9	1.9	6.9
13.9	Logan Gilbert	R	HOU	99.6%	-165	7.5	57%	6.1	2.2	6.1
12.2	Hunter Greene	R	@SF	93.1%	+125	6.5	52%	5.7	2.2	6.2
11.3	Michael King	R	@ATH	96.7%	-150	8.5	54%	5.4	2.3	6.3
10.8	Logan Webb	R	CIN	96.6%	-150	6.5	48%	6.1	2.6	5.3
10.4	Nathan Eovaldi	R	@CHC	83.7%	+110	5.5	50%	5.6	2.5	5.6
10.3	Zac Gallen	R	BAL	92.7%	-135	8.5	48%	5.6	2.7	6.1
10.3	Justin Steele	L	TEX	86.7%	-130	5.5	50%	5.5	2.5	5.6
10.2	Carlos Rodon	L	@DET	84.9%	-165	8.5	56%	5.5	2.7	5.7
9.6	Zach Eflin	R	@ARI	58.3%	+115	8.5	52%	5.4	2.6	5.1
9.3	Valente Bellozo	R	@NYM	0.1%	+205	7.5	36%	5.2	2.1	4.8
9.3	Hayden Wesneski	R	@SEA	4.0%	+140	7.5	43%	4.9	2.0	4.7
8.2	Dustin May	R	@WSH	36.5%	-190	7.5	57%	4.8	2.3	4.7
7.8	Luis Severino	R	SD	31.6%	+125	8.5	46%	5.6	3.0	4.9
6.8	Casey Mize	R	NYY	14.7%	+140	8.5	44%	4.9	2.7	4.6
6.5	MacKenzie Gore	L	LAD	74.7%	+160	7.5	43%	5.0	3.2	5.6
6.4	Matthew Liberatore	L	@PIT	4.0%	-125	8.5	60%	4.6	2.5	3.8
6.0	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	@KC	2.8%	EVEN	7.5	53%	4.8	2.7	4.0
6.0	Easton Lucas	L	@BOS	0.9%	+110	8.5	46%	4.2	2.3	4.2
5.9	Richard Fitts	R	TOR	4.5%	-130	8.5	54%	5.0	3.0	3.9
5.7	Michael Lorenzen	R	MIN	3.0%	-120	7.5	47%	5.1	3.2	4.3
3.7	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	STL	0.2%	+105	8.5	40%	4.2	2.7	3.8

Pitchers to stream on Monday

Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Dustin May will make his second start of the season on the road against the Washington Nationals. May tossed five frames in his debut, fanning six with three walks. The Dodgers could use another solid effort from May with LHP Blake Snell on the IL, thinning a rotation lacking depth. The Nationals have fanned at the highest clip in the league to open the season.
Houston Astros RHP Hayden Wesneski has been a fantasy breakout candidate for a few seasons, but he never garnered a sustained look from the Chicago Cubs before being dealt in the Kyle Tucker deal. Injuries have paved the way for Wesneski to open the season in the rotation. He punched out six San Francisco Giants over five frames in his Astros debut but walked three and yielded a home run. On Monday, he faces the strikeout-prone Seattle Mariners in T-Mobile Park, the best pitching venue in the league.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

New York Mets pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
The average pitcher would post a 2.88 ERA in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 2.98 ERA in this matchup.

New York Yankees pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.57 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.83 ERA in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.58 ERA in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.23 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream on Monday

Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Carmen Mlodzinski is filling in for RHP Jared Jones who is on the 60-day IL with a UCL sprain. Mlodzinski was slated to be a reliever and isn't fully stretched out. While it won't be ideal hitting conditions for the visiting St. Louis Cardinals, the favorable matchup puts Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera and Victor Scott II in play to fill lineup holes created via an 11-game slate.

Hitters to avoid on Monday

Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert has benefited from a favorable early schedule with three home starts. He has fanned 18 with just one free pass in 12 frames over his first two outings. On Monday, he faces the Astros. Even on an abbreviated slate, it's best to look elsewhere for offense with the Astros sporting the third-highest strikeout rate in the league.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Sutter Health Park grades out as the No. 6 park in the game for left-handed home runs, via my projections.

Tyler Soderstrom | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Soderstrom is in the 84th percentile for offensive skills -- per my Expected wOBA (xwOBA) projections.

Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Cruz has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity (a reliable stat to assess power) of 121.5 mph, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Dustin May | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Will Smith, the Dodgers' expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to my projections.

Richard Fitts | UNDER 3.5 K (-130)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Connor Wong, the Red Sox' expected catcher in today's game, grades out as a weak pitch framer, according to my projections.

Hayden Wesneski | UNDER 5.5 K (-110)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.55 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.8 mph in this contest, the second-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Reds @ Giants | NRFI (-150)
Projection: 60% chance of NO RUN with a $0.68 EV

Astros @ Mariners | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $0.45 EV