<
        >

          Fantasy baseball news or noise: Ohtani's pitching timetable, Alonso's return to Flushing

          Pete Alonso will be back at first for the Mets in 2025, but when will Shohei Ohtani return to the mound? SARAH YENESEL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Feb 7, 2025, 12:16 PM ET

          It's February and the fantasy baseball offseason is, pardon the pun, in full swing. Right now, most sports fans are devoting the majority of their attention to the NFL, NBA and NHL, where the games (both real and fantasy) take center stage -- and understandably so.

          Perhaps you're hearing about the latest baseball buzz only in passing, if at all. That's perfectly fine. We're paying attention to what's going on and are here to let you know about the top stories of the past week. Are they something you need to file away for draft day or are they likely to have little impact when all is said and done?

          Read on and find out whether these breaking developments are truly news or if they're just noise.

          Shohei Ohtani should resume pitching in games in May

          Ohtani, the consensus No. 1 overall player for 2025 ESPN fantasy baseball leagues, warranted some attention on the injury front as spring training dawned. He was unable to pitch for the entirety of last season as he recovered from September 2023 surgery for a UCL tear in his right elbow. Then he required surgery for a dislocated left shoulder in November, repairing an injury he suffered during the 2024 World Series.

          There had already been some question as to exactly when he'd be cleared to pitch in 2025, with previous reports signaling he would not do so during the team's season-opening series in Japan. His shoulder issue could have been a complication on the hitting side as well. All indications are that Ohtani has made a full recovery from the shoulder operation, and should be 100% for those games in Japan, however, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters this week that a projected May return to the mound for Ohtani "sounds about right."

          We'll get a better sense of how Ohtani is meeting that timetable once spring training opens next week, but it seems fair to project him to make about 20 starts this season, accounting for him being limited to hitting duties only for the first 40-45 Dodgers games, before embarking on an "every sixth game" pitching schedule.

          Even 15 starts from Ohtani could be worth as many as 230 fantasy points, prorating his 2021-23 per-start average, which is a big deal considering he already averaged 518 fantasy points with his bat from 2022-24, third best among hitters (Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge). There's an excellent chance Ohtani's fantasy managers in 2025 will end up squeezing 700-plus points out of him.

          Fantasy impact: News

          New York Mets and Pete Alonso finally come to an agreement

          It's big news in the Big Apple, as Alonso and the Mets agreed to a two-year, $54 million contract on Wednesday, finally bringing to an end his tumultuous 97 days of free agency. The deal does include an opt-out after the 2025 season, so both parties might be right back in the same position nine months from now, but Alonso's return significantly deepens a Mets lineup that already scored a big offseason win with the free-agent acquisition of 26-year-old superstar (and active leader in OBP) Juan Soto.

          Expect Alonso to slide into the No. 3 spot in the Mets lineup, behind Francisco Lindor and Soto, which could be a significant boon for the first baseman in the RBIs department. Bear in mind that Aaron Judge, who hit third behind Soto for 153 games for the New York Yankees in 2024, enjoyed not only a career year, but also one of the best overall power seasons in baseball history. While Alonso's contact quality and strikeout rate both declined slightly last season, returning to the Mets represented about the best-case scenario for his repeating or even exceeding his 2024 stat line.

          Alonso's return is bad news, however, for Brett Baty, once one of the Mets' top prospects. He's much less likely to sneak in time at third base, a position at which Mark Vientos broke through in 2024. Baty should spend a good share of time again in Triple-A.

          Fantasy impact: News

          Kansas City Royals won't go with a traditional closer

          Following last Saturday's news that the Royals had signed former Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies closer Carlos Estevez to a two-year, $22 million contract, questions were raised as to who would occupy the ninth inning for the team in 2025. Lucas Erceg, a midseason acquisition from the Athletics, excelled in the closer role down the stretch, converting 14-of-16 save chances with a 3.46 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 29.5% strikeout rate across his final 23 appearances (playoffs included). Estevez, however, will make $10.1 million in 2025 alone, a salary that made it seem likely he'd claim the ninth-inning role for himself.

          Royals manager Matt Quatraro quelled both assumptions at Estevez's introductory news conference, however, saying he won't set defined bullpen roles at the onset of the season. Both Estevez and Erceg will get opportunities to close games, along with potentially other Royals relievers (Hunter Harvey? John Schreiber?).

          That said, when Quatraro had Scott Barlow pitching at a high level entering 2023, he leaned mostly on the right-hander as his closer rather than going the committee route, and again, when Erceg emerged late last season, Erceg was Quatraro's go-to guy. The strategy initially might be to seek the hot hand and then to lean mostly on that individual, meaning spring training and April might prove to be an effective Estevez-versus-Erceg battle for ninth-inning duties. It's a situation to watch over the next two-plus months.

          Fantasy impact: News

          Previous off-season news or noise content