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          Fantasy baseball advice for Tuesday: Add Bowden Francis

          Bowden Francis has pitched very well since the All-Star break. Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 10, 2024, 10:41 AM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET , and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Take a Bow(den)

          Back in the spring, Toronto Blue Jays RHP Bowden Francis earned a spot in the rotation. He started two games but yielded 12 runs in 8⅓ innings. Francis then pitched twice as a reliever, winning both outings, but was still optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.

          Bowden returned to the Blue Jays in early June, pitching mostly long relief. He was reinstated into the rotation after the All-Star break, posting a 1.97 ERA and 0.57 WHIP with 47 strikeouts to only five walks in 45⅔ innings. His last five efforts have been quality starts.

          The primary difference in Bowden's approach during his second half run is throwing far fewer curves and sliders while increasing usage of his splitter. He's walking far fewer batters while inducing more soft contact. To wit, in his first stint, Francis recorded a 14.7 K-BB% and a 46.5% hard hit rate. Over his past seven starts, Francis' K-BB% is 25.3, with a 39.1% hard hit rate.

          Even with his second-half exploits, Bowden is still available in more than half of ESPN leagues. His recent success will be tested on Wednesday with a home date against the New York Mets, but you may want to grab him today and stash him overnight. Francis will be tasked with keeping one of the league's top road offenses in check, though the Mets have slowed down significantly away from Citi Field since the All-Star break. Research shows pitchers throwing well in recent efforts usually continue to do so, landing Francis as one of Tuesday's top streaming options and the rankings agree.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          • Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fouled a ball off his left foot in the sixth inning last night. He completed the at bat, grounding out to shortstop, but was clearly uncomfortable while running to first base. Guerrero hobbled to the dugout then went for X-rays. Since he was serving as DH, he was able to stay in the game and, when they came back negative, he took his at-bat in the eighth, striking out. While it's encouraging that Guerrero was able to stay in the game, he's slated for a follow-up examination today, which will clarify his status.

          • Minnesota Twins IF/OF Willi Castro was announced as being in the lineup last night, but didn't appear due to an illness. Castro's spot in center field was taken by OF Michael Helman. This season, Castro has appeared at every defensive position except catcher and first base -- he's even has pitched twice! Currently, he's manning center field with OF Byron Buxton sidelined. Buxton experienced a recent setback during his rehab for a sore hip, but is reportedly running freely again. His timetable to return is still unclear.

          • Atlanta Braves C Travis d'Arnaud was placed on paternity leave prior to last night's game with the Cincinnati Reds. The club recalled C Chadwick Tromp to fill his roster spot, but C Sean Murphy caught last night and is likely to be behind the plate for the upcoming two-game road set with the Washington Nationals. The Braves have Thursday off, so d'Arnaud is expected to be back with the team in time for Friday's opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

          • Philadelphia Phillies C J.T. Realmuto missed his third straight game as he continues to nurse a left knee contusion he suffered while batting last Friday night. Backup C Garrett Stubbs and recently recalled C Aramis Garcia have been filling in behind the plate. Realmuto's status for tonight's home date with the Tampa Bay Rays is unclear.

          • Reds 2B Jonathan India missed last night's road affair with the Braves as he was still dealing with left elbow discomfort. India first experienced the issue on Sunday. He was replaced at the keystone by Santiago Espinal. India is considered to be day-to-day.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • Tuesday's slate features 15 games under the lights, with three starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.

          • Anyone with Houston Astros RHP Spencer Arrighetti (25.3% rostered in ESPN leagues) in their lineup last week was saddled with three earned runs and five hits in ⅔ innings. It could have been worse, but a ball initially scored as a hit was changed to an error on SS Jeremy Pena, saving Arrighetti from six more earned runs. He clearly wasn't sharp, but the rookie did yield a few soft hits along with some of the hard hit variety. The rookie is in a great spot to rebound on Tuesday with a home matchup with the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics sported one of the league's top offenses in July. Since, they've averaged the fourth fewest runs per game in MLB while fanning at an above average clip.

          • New York Mets LHP David Peterson (32.6% rostered) is one of the reasons the Mets have vaulted themselves into postseason contention. The southpaw is 5-1 with a 2.46 ERA since the All-Star break, fanning a respectable 49 in 54⅔ frames.

          • It keeps appearing like St. Louis Cardinals RHP Andre Pallante will move back to the bullpen, but injuries have kept him in the rotation for much of the season. Lately, Pallante has filled in for RHP Lance Lynn (knee), though Lynn is slated to return on Wednesday. Pallante has pitched well, albeit with a couple of hiccups including his last outing when he surrendered five earned runs to the Milwaukee Brewers in five innings. However, in his prior four efforts, Pallante registered a 2.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 25⅓ stanzas. He's in a favorable spot to get back on track with a rematch against the Reds at home. On the road, the Reds tote the eighth-lowest wOBA and fifth-highest strikeout rate versus righties.

          • Tuesday marks the return of Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (91.9% rostered). As tempting as it may be to unleash him at home against the Chicago Cubs, Yamamoto will likely be kept to a pitch count after rehabbing from a right rotator cuff strain. He made only two rehab starts, both lasting just two innings. Unfortunately, the Dodgers care more about getting Yamamoto ready for their postseason run than boosting his fantasy team managers.

          • Betting tip of the day: Prior to his last outing in which Houston Astros SP Spencer Arrighetti notched only two outs, he had logged at least six frames in seven out of eight starts. Look for the right-hander to get back on track this evening at home facing the Oakland Athletics. I'm taking Arrighetti for over 17.5 total outs recorded (-105).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday