<
        >

          Fantasy baseball Sunday advice: Top pitchers to stream

          Luis Severino checks in as one of Sunday's best streamers against the Cincinnati Reds. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 8, 2024, 10:16 AM ET
            Close
            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
            Follow on X

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Seth Johnson makes debut

          The Philadelphia Phillies starting pitching boasts the second best ERA in the league, behind only the Seattle Mariners. The Phillies have achieved this despite a 5.41 ERA from the fifth spot in the rotation, and that includes a 1.78 ERA in 35 1/3 innings from Spencer Turnbull. Taijuan Walker's 6.50 ERA and Tyler Phillips 7.44 mark did most of the damage.

          The Phillies are promoting RHP Seth Johnson from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start Sunday's matinee against the Miami Marlins in Florida. Johnson was acquired at the trade deadline from the Baltimore Orioles as part of the Gregory Soto deal.

          Johnson was drafted 40th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2019 draft. He played shortstop through his junior season in college, but was drafted for his pitching potential. His development was curtailed by Tommy John surgery in 2022. Just as he was about to undergo the procedure, the Rays shipped him to the Orioles in a three-way trade also involving Houston. Jose Siri and Trey Mancini were the other main principles changing teams.

          Johnson primary deploys a four-season fastball that sits around 93 mph but can touch 96 mph, along with a slider/cutter. He's not dominant, averaging fewer than a strikeout an inning while walking hitters at an above-average pace. His forte is keeping the ball in the yard, which is a solid pathway to success, but harder to achieve at the major league level.

          Johnson (0.4% rostered in ESPN league) enjoys a favorable scenario for his inaugural outing. The Marlins sport the fifth lowest wOBA, along with an above average strikeout rate facing right-handers. Johnson merits streaming consideration for those looking to pad their pitching stats.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • After fouling a ball off his knee on Friday night, San Diego Padres OF Jackson Merrill didn't start last night. However, Merrill was able to pinch-hit in the ninth, which bodes well for a return to the lineup when the Padres entertain the San Francisco Giants in the rubber game of their NL West weekend set.

          • Cincinnati Reds OF TJ Friedl left last night's game in the seventh inning due to shortness of breath. He left the ballpark and was accompanied to a local hospital as a precautionary measure. Initial tests did not indicate any issues. Friedl will be re-evaluated before today's road affair with the New York Mets. If Friedl is unable to help the Reds avoid being swept over the weekend, OF Rece Hinds will take his place.

          • Minnesota Twins 1B Carlos Santana had to exit Saturday night's game due to an illness. He was replaced by Kyle Farmer. Santana's availability for the final game of the critical series with the Kansas City Royals is unclear.

          • Atlanta Braves 2B Whit Merrifield has been diagnosed with a fracture in his left foot. He suffered the injury after fouling a ball off his foot last night. Merrifield recently missed two games after being hit in the head by a pitch. Despite the fracture, the club is optimistic Merrifield will miss less than a week, hence avoiding the IL. Luke Williams will likely man the keystone until Merrifield can return to action. The Braves are still hopeful that regular 2B Ozzie Albies returns before the playoffs, but the switch-hitter is experiencing issues swinging left-handed. Albies has been out since July 21 while recovering from a fractured left wrist.

          • Injuries have forced a shakeup in the Los Angeles Angels outfield. Kevin Pillar and Jo Adell were both placed on the 10-day IL with Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio being summoned to fill in and shag flies. Pillar has a sprained thumb while Adell is dealing with an oblique issue. Of the two replacements, Teodosio is the more intriguing, especially for stolen bases. The 25-year-old right-handed hitter posted a .276/.339.418 line for Triple-A Salt Lake. He stole 40 bases in 44 tries and Angels manager Ron Washington is a proponent of the running game. The Angels rank a surprising 10th in MLB with 116 swipes.

          • The Miami Marlins placed RP Calvin Faucher on the 15-day IL due to a right shoulder impingement. Faucher has served as the primary closer since Tanner Scott was dealt at the deadline. Dating back to August 1, Faucher had converted six out of eight save chances. Ninth-inning duties will likely be shared by Anthony Bender and John McMillon.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • The docket's top streamer is New York Mets RHP Luis Severino (28.4% rostered) with a home matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. For the season, Severino's 20.3% strikeout rate is pedestrian, though he checks in with a 25.7% mark nine starts spanning 49 2/3 innings since the break. The Reds are one of the most vulnerable teams with a righty on the hill, fanning at a 24.8% clip.

          • Johnson versus the Marlins is next, followed by Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Jared Jones (48.3% rostered). Generally, three weeks is too small of a sample to cast a judgment, but with Jones, it could be telling. Early on, the rookie was the talk of the town, before his teammate Paul Skenes hit the scene. Jones missed almost two months before returning in late August. He's made two starts since coming off the IL, striking out just eight while issuing four walks and allowing three homers in 10 1/3 innings. How Jones fares in his past three or four outings could have a major effect on his 2025 draft stick. On Sunday, Jones is in a good spot to display his first half form with a home date against the Washington Nationals. Their lineup doesn't strike out much, but they're below average in terms of wOBA and HR% facing righties.

          • Los Angeles Angels RHP Caden Dana earned his second career start after posting a quality start in his MLB debut. The rookie limited the Mariners to two runs on two hits in six frames. However, he only punched out four (the Mariners lead the league in strikeouts) while walking four. Dana will take the hill in Arlington to face a Texas Rangers lineup missing SS Corey Seager for the final three weeks. Since the break, the Rangers have the ninth worst wOBA facing right-handers.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Boston Red Sox will be looking to sweep the Chicago White Sox in Fenway Park this afternoon. With RHP Chris Flexen on the hill for the White Sox, the Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the Sunday slate. When Boston scores a lot of runs, OF Jarren Duran is usually a spark. Back Duran for over 3.5 total Hits + runs + RBI (+150).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday