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          Fantasy baseball Thursday advice: Ride Bowden Francis' hot streak

          Jays pitcher Bowden Francis allowed just one hit while striking out 12 his last time out. Cole Burston/Getty Images
          • Mike Sheets
          Aug 29, 2024, 10:30 AM ET

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Jays' Francis looks to continue momentum

          Bowden Francis was largely off the fantasy radar in most standard leagues heading into last week's action, but his latest performance against the Los Angeles Angels turned some heads. In Saturday's outing against the Halos, the 28-year-old right-hander carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning before surrendering a solo homer to Taylor Ward. He finished the night with eight innings of one-run ball, allowing one hit and recording a career-high 12 strikeouts.

          While that one-hit, 12-K effort was undoubtedly Francis' most dominant outing of the season, he has actually pitched quite well since officially joining the Toronto Blue Jays' rotation earlier this month. Before the one-hitter, he had allowed just three earned runs over his previous three starts combined, giving up seven hits and one walk across 19 innings while striking out 22.

          The underlying numbers suggest that Francis is succeeding more with his location than pure stuff, as he doesn't throw particularly hard (his fastball averages 93.3 mph), and has been below average at generating swings and misses at pitches outside the zone (28.3%). That makes him a bit riskier for fantasy purposes and likely limits his ceiling, but it's hard to ignore the results he has produced thus far.

          Thursday's matchup against the Boston Red Sox will be a tough test for Francis, so he's not a no-brainer streaming option. Still, at this point in the season, I'd recommend riding his hot streak. He's a free agent in 70% of ESPN Fantasy leagues, so there's a good chance he's available in yours.

          What you may have missed on Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman has missed both games of the series thus far with the Baltimore Orioles as he's nursing a hairline fracture in his right middle finger. It's not clear if there is a cause and effect, but since suffering the injury on August 17, Freeman is batting just .130/.200/.217 with seven strikeouts over 25 plate appearances. Freeman's availability for tonight's series finale is not known.

          • Boston Red Sox 2B/SS David Hamilton was hit in the fingers while bunting in the eighth inning. He stayed in the game to run the bases but did not come out on defense in the ninth. Hamilton's status is unclear. He's hitting .258/.324/.468 with three homers and seven stolen bases in August.

          • Also for Boston, 3B Rafael Devers missed his second straight game due to lingering soreness in both of his shoulders. His status for tonight's game is uncertain. Romy Gonzalez has manned the hot corner in Devers' absence.

          • Oakland Athletics OF Miguel Andujar is slated to undergo season-ending core muscle surgery. He'll finish with 75 games played and 310 plate appearances, both the second-highest total of his career. Daz Cameron is the likely beneficiary in terms of playing time.

          • The San Francisco Giants are expected to get starting catcher Patrick Bailey (oblique strain) back today as he is likely to be activated from the 10-day IL in advance of today's road matinee with the Milwaukee Brewers.

          Everything else you need to know for Thursday

          • With Jordan Montgomery being shifted to the bullpen, Ryne Nelson (17% rostered in ESPN leagues) will remain in the Arizona Diamondbacks' starting rotation for the rest of the season. The right-hander has certainly earned his spot, posting a 2.76 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his past 10 appearances (nine starts), with 62 Ks in 62 innings. While Thursday's opponent, the New York Mets, have hit well in August (107 wRC+), they also have a 25.6% strikeout rate (eighth-highest in MLB), giving Nelson some nice strikeout upside in this matchup.

          • Aaron Civale (13% rostered) has been inconsistent since being acquired by the Milwaukee Brewers, but he finds himself in an appealing spot Thursday, facing a San Francisco Giants offense that has been below average in August (96 wRC+), sporting the third-highest strikeout rate (27%) in baseball. That's enough to consider Civale as a streaming option on Thursday's 11-game slate.

          • Lucas Erceg of the Kansas City Royals has been one of the top closers in fantasy over the past month, yet he's rostered in only 17% of ESPN leagues. Since being traded from Oakland at the deadline, the righty has spun 12 1/3 scoreless innings with just one walk and 15 strikeouts. Erceg has also notched six holds and five saves over that stretch. Even if you don't necessarily need saves, he can help your ratios on days like Thursday when there isn't a full slate of games.

          • Valente Bellozo holds a solid 3.35 ERA across his first seven big league starts, but it looks like he's doing it with smoke and mirrors. His xERA is 5.04, and his 47.4% hard-hit rate would rank as the 13th-worst in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. This house of cards could easily collapse on Thursday with a visit to Coors Field, where Ryan McMahon (45%), Nolan Jones (33%), Ezequiel Tovar (26%), Michael Toglia (12%) and Charlie Blackmon (6%) are all viable streaming options.

          • Betting tip of the day: As noted above, Ryne Nelson draws a Mets team that is striking out more than 25% of the time in August, including 28% of the time over the past week. Take over 5.5 strikeouts (+105) for Nelson, who has fanned at least six batters in five straight starts.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday