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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday

          After a year honing his skills in South Korea, Erick Fedde is winning games for the White Sox. AP
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJul 22, 2024, 11:12 AM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Hug watch

          It's that time of the year again -- the time when players are traded midgame and are often shown hugging their teammates in the dugout. Hence the term, "hug watch" was coined.

          The Chicago White Sox are reportedly listening to offers on starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde. Dealing for Crochet will require a hefty prospect package, with the risk that Crochet may not be able to pitch much in the postseason since he's already logged 107⅓ innings after throwing a total of just 25 frames last season.

          Fedde may not be as dominant as Crochet, but the asking price will be lower. Plus, Fedde can add depth to a playoff rotation. Fedde pitched for the Washington Nationals from 2017-22, recording a 5.41 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. Last season, he pitched for the NC Dinos in South Korea. He treated his time overseas as a laboratory, altering his repertoire.

          The big change was altering the grip on his "get me over" breaking ball, adding 4 mph to the pitch and turning it into a sweeper. Fedde also tweaked the grip on his other three offerings and everything seemed to click. Fedde led the KBO in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He collected the Choi Dong-won Award, that league's version of the Cy Young award.

          While Fedde hasn't maintained the same level of dominance during his return to MLB, he's no doubt a better pitcher. His strikeout rate is similar to his mark with the Nationals in 2022, but his walk rate is lower. Also, he's doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the yard. In today's landscape, those traits can manifest success, even without gawdy strikeout totals.

          On Monday, Fedde is slated to pitch the opener of a four-game set in Arlington against a Texas Rangers offense that hasn't been as productive as last season. So far, they check in with the ninth-lowest wOBA when a right-hander is on the hill. Fedde is in a good spot to impress teams desiring to lengthen their rotation down the stretch.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez had to leave Sunday's game after crashing into the outfield wall. X-rays were negative and manager Scott Servais has deemed Rodriguez as day-to-day due to an ankle sprain. Yesterday, Rodriguez was replaced by 1B Ty France. France was still able to play despite being having been placed on irrevocable waivers earlier in the day. The club plans on calling up 1B Tyler Locklear to take over full time, though they may opt to wait until France is off the roster (after either being claimed or clearing waivers).

          • Atlanta Braves 2B Ozzie Albies suffered a fractured left wrist while applying a tag on a stolen base attempt in the ninth inning of yesterday's contest. The initial timetable is for Albies to miss around eight weeks. In the interim, Whit Merrifield, Nacho Alvarez and Zack Short are expected to man the keystone for the Braves. Albies will join SP Max Fried on the IL. Updating a note from yesterday, an MRI on Fried's throwing arm came back negative, but it's still unclear as to when he'll return from left forearm neuritis.

          • The Boston Red Sox will be without closer Kenley Jansen for their three-game road set with the Colorado Rockies. Jansen's atrial fibrillation has been exacerbated in the past on trips to Coors Field. Jansen will remain in Boston with manager Alex Cora likely using a committee approach for saves.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers SS Miguel Rojas had to exit last night's game in the third inning due to right forearm tightness. The club doesn't consider the injury to be serious, but Rojas is still expected to miss today's matchup with the San Francisco Giants.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Thirteen games comprise a busier than normal Monday ledger, including a 1:05 p.m. matinee in the Bronx featuring the New York Yankees hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. All of the other dozen contests will be under the lights,

          • The Oakland Athletics are averaging the seventh-fewest runs per game this season. However, in July, they've been putting up a whopping 7.5 runs per game, most in the league. On Monday, Houston Astros SP Spencer Arrighetti (2.2% rostered) is tasked with slowing down the hottest offense in the league. Arrighetti was piling up the strikeouts heading into the break (28 over his prior 22 frames), but he also walked nine batters while yielding three homers. Under the circumstances, avoiding Arrighetti may seem like the right call, but the truth about streaks is they're not predictive, and larger samples are more trustworthy. In leagues with game starts or innings limits each week, not using Arrighetti is defensible, but it may not be the right move.

          • On the surface, New York Mets SP David Peterson (4.9% rostered) and his 3.09 ERA has stepped up to help an injury-riddled rotation. However, a 1.42 WHIP and a 4.53 xFIP indicate that Peterson has enjoyed a lot of good fortune. Normally, this would be a warning not to get trapped into using a perceived solid starter, but with a road date with the Miami Marlins on the docket, Peterson is still in play as a streaming option. The Marlins have been the worst team against left-handers all season.

          • St. Louis Cardinals SP Andre Pallante (1.9% rostered) has filled in nicely with SP Steven Matz on the IL. Over his past four outings, Pallante has recorded a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, albeit with a tepid 20 punchouts over 24 frames. However, he doesn't walk too many batters and keeps the ball in the yard. On Monday, Pallante draws the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The Pirates sport the third-lowest wOBA and seventh-highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.

          • Betting tip of the day: Making a prop bet on a switch-hitter gives us the advantage of the platoon edge, regardless of who is pitching. This is even more beneficial when a lesser starter is followed by weak relievers. The Miami Marlins don't have a terrible bullpen, but they aren't exactly dominant. The call is for New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor to enjoy a productive game with the Marlins sending SP Yonny Chirinos to the hill. I'll take Lindor for over 1.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+105).

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday