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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Blake Snell of the San Francisco Giants has an 8.49 ERA at home in 11 1/3 innings. John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 2, 2024, 11:16 AM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What is that Snell?

          The elongated free agency aside, SP Blake Snell was an enigma during draft season. He was coming off winning the NL Cy Young. Using outcomes, he certainly deserved the award. However, the underlying metrics suggested he tag-teamed with Lady Luck for most of the season. Snell benefited from a .256 BABIP and 86.7% left-on-base mark. Both of those were driven by an 83rd percentile Hard-Hit%. Snell's 31.5% strikeout rate was 94th percentile, but his 13.3% walk rate was just 4th percentile, and highest ever for a Cy Young winner.

          Research indicates that a pitcher has a limited influence on his Hard-Hit%. Last season, Snell consistently located in zones conducive to generating soft contact, so from that perspective, the low Hard-Hit% was warranted, and not good fortune. That said, it's hard to fathom how a pitcher with such poor control can flip the switch and command his pitches to this area. Further, if this was by design, it's essentially a skill. As such, the southpaw should have been expected to maintain the ability this season.

          The catch is, even those adept at analyzing pitching didn't expect Snell to repeat last season's exploits. If that's the case, maybe the luck aspect wasn't the low Hard-Hit%, but rather the extended period Snell was able to have his pitches land in the zones resulting in softer contact.

          Unfortunately, circumstances have delayed learning the answer. Snell's dawdling signing and subsequent late start to the season cast a shroud over his early performances. The subsequent Grade 2 adductor strain costing Snell over a month further clouds matters.

          In two starts since coming off the injured list, Snell has been pitch inefficient. He tossed 87 and 90 pitches, but logged only 3⅓ and four innings, respectively. The lefty fanned 12 but walked six over those 7⅓ frames. He's giving up harder contact, though his .480 BABIP is higher than expected when factoring in the elevated average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.

          Snell deserves the benefit of the doubt, so he should be considered a work in progress. In fantasy terms, he's someone to hold in reserve. Only those who live dangerously should have Snell active against the New York Yankees on Sunday. His next start lines up in Arlington, another tough matchup, but after that the schedule gets easier. The Giants-Yankees tilt comprises one of the standard 15-game Sunday ledger. Action commences at 1:05 p.m. ET with the Houston Astros hosting the Minnesota Twins, then culminates with the Philadelphia Phillies entertaining the St. Louis Cardinals in the ESPN Sunday night affair.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • The Philadelphia Phillies had to go to the bullpen early yesterday after SP Ranger Suarez was hit in the left hand by a 106.1 MPH line drive, courtesy of St. Louis Cardinals OF Alec Burleson. Suarez retrieved the ball and lobbed it to first, recording the final out of the second inning but he was unable to come out for the third. X-rays revealed no break, but Suarez's left thumb is swollen, rendering him questionable for his next start. Five Phillies relievers covered the final seven frames, with RP Spencer Turnbull fanning six over three innings to pick up the win in the 6-1 victory. If Suarez can't make his next start, Turnbull is the likely substitute.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays placed RP Jordan Romano on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation. With struggling RP Erik Swanson trying to get back on track with Triple-A Buffalo, RP Yimi Garcia is in line for the bulk of the Blue Jays' saves, with RP Chad Green in the mix.

          • Middle infield has been a revolving door for the Boston Red Sox all season. Their woes continued yesterday with 2B Vaughn Grissom landing on the 10-day IL with a mild hamstring strain. In addition, backup 2B Romy Gonzalez was also placed on the 10-day IL with a strained left hamstring. The Red Sox called up INF Jamie Westbrook from Triple-A Worcester to serve as depth while 2B Emmanuel River and SS David Hamilton cover the middle. The club hopes to have OF Tyler O'Neill back early this week, freeing up Rafaela to help as well.

          • In the top half of the third inning, Chicago White Sox OF Andrew Benintendi took Milwaukee Brewers SP Robert Gasser deep. In the bottom half, Benintendi had to exit the contest with left Achilles tendinitis. He's questionable today when the White Sox try to avoid the sweep. If Benintendi can't play, OF Dominic Fletcher is the likely replacement.

          • Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams was a late scratch on Saturday. He hurt his shoulder after diving for a ball on Friday night. Abrams status for today's interleague affair with the Cleveland Indians is unclear. The Nationals lost the first two games of the series. Today they'll face SP Carlos Carrasco who will be activated from the IP to make the start.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • The top-ranked streaming option is Arizona Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt (24.1% rostered in ESPN league). Pfaadt will take the hill in Citi Field to face the lineup averaging the third-fewest runs per game in home games. Pfaadt's 4.16 ERA is judged half a run too high by the associated 3.65 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA.

          • The safest streaming candidate is SP Gavin Stone, who will toe the rubber in Dodgers Stadium for a home date with the Colorado Rockies. Stone is also coming off a gem, tossing seven shutout stanzas against the Mets, with seven punchouts and no free passes. For the season, Stone has only 41 strikeouts in 57 frames, but he's limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard. The Rockies' lineup is one of the least productive on the road in the league, in part due to an elevated strikeout rate.

          • Cincinnati Reds SP Nick Lodolo (42.3%) will be making his second start since coming off the injured list after nursing a groin strain. In his return, Lodolo picked up where he left off, yielding just one run in 5⅓ innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in Great American Ballpark. Lodolo has rung up 46 in 40⅓ innings, walking just four while surrendering only four homers. On Sunday, Lodolo has a road date in Wrigley Field against a Chicago Cubs offense with a below-average wOBA and above-average strikeout rate.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: Something must give. The Kansas City Royals host the San Diego Padres with SP Cole Ragans on the hill. Ragans boasts a 29.7% strikeout rate, the 10th highest among qualified starters. Meanwhile, the Padres 19.0% strikeout rate facing right-handers is the fourth lowest in the league. Ragans averages 7.4 strikeouts per six innings, so accounting for the lineup, I'm going to play it safe by backing the Over on 5.5 strikeouts (-110).

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          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

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