Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

Todd Zola, FantasyMay 4, 2024, 01:00 PM ET
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- Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
- Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Eyes of Ranger are upon us

OK, who had Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez as the top-ranked pitcher in April? Yeah, me neither. According to the ESPN Player Rater, Suarez topped the list, followed by Shota Imanaga and Tyler Glasnow.

Suarez enters Saturday's home start against the San Francisco Giants with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP. He has started six games, with five wins and a no decision. Suarez has benefited from a .189 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and 92.1% left on base mark, but a 2.37 xFIP and 2.37 SIERA indicate the fall will be cushioned once regression kicks in.

Suarez's strikeout rate is in line with his career trend. Fewer walks and a spike in ground ball rate are fueling his improvement and softening the likely regression. The main source of the regression will be BABIP. High ground ball rates limit homers, but they usually generate an above average BABIP. Suarez's career-high 60.8% ground ball rate should result in a BABIP well north of its .189 level. Over the previous three seasons, Suarez has induced grounders at a 54.5% clip, with the resulting .296 BABIP. Going forward, it's reasonable to expect a BABIP over 100 points higher than the current level.

It's fair to consider whether Suarez can maintain a career-best 3.5% walk rate level, which is less than half of the 8.6% mark he posted from 2021 to 2023. Sure, it's possible, but a move towards his recent career levels is likely.

With the above xFIP and SIERA based on current skill levels, there's a good chance they're undershooting what to expect from Suarez over the next five months. That said, there is ample evidence to increase expectations from drafting season. Suarez was probably deemed a streamer a month ago, but now instead of releasing him and hoping to reacquire for his next favorable outing, Suarez warrants being reserved between efforts.

What you may have missed on Friday

• Trea Turner had to leave last night's game in the fourth inning after he hurt his hamstring scoring from second on a passed ball. Turner singled and then stole second base before scoring on the heads up play. He's quietly batting .343 with 10 steals. His availability for today's evening matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the San Francisco Giants is unclear.

• Giants' catcher Patrick Bailey was hit in the mask by a foul tip in the first inning. He reported having blurred vision, so Tom Murphy came in to handle the catching duties in the second inning. Bailey's status is unknown. The Phillies stole three bases with Murphy behind the plate. Since 2021, Murphy has thrown out only 11.3% of base stealers, so look for the Phillies to remain aggressive if Bailey is out of the lineup.

• George Kirby limited the Houston Astros to one run through six innings last night. Even though he had thrown only 88 pitchers, Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais turned to his bullpen with Kirby pitching with a sore knee. The Astros took advantage, turning a 3-1 deficit into a 5-3 lead in the seventh inning. That's how the game ended, with Ronel Blanco posting another quality start and Josh Hader logging his third save. Kirby is expected to make his next start, slated for next Thursday.

• Nathan Eovaldi was placed on the 15-day on Friday after an MRI showed a strained right groin. Not only will the Texas Rangers need to fill Eovaldi's spot next Tuesday, but they play a doubleheader in Oakland on Wednesday. Mark Leiter syncs up for Tuesday, but that's not official. • Byron Buxton was put on the 10-day IL yesterday. He underwent an MRI which revealed no structural damage, but the Minnesota Twins played it safe with their oft-injured outfielder. Austin Martin was recalled and will play a lot of center field in Buxton's absence.

• Brandon Drury missed his second straight game with a migraine. It's not known whether Drury will be able to return to the Los Angeles Angels lineup today for an early evening affair with the Cleveland Guardians.

Everything else you need to know for Saturday

On Saturday, Suarez will be opposed by Keaton Winn (13.4% rostered in ESPN leagues). Given, this isn't an ideal matchup, facing the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park, but Winn has tossed three straight quality starts, yielding just one run over six frames in each. He fanned only 15 in those 18 frames, but he also administered just three free passes. Perhaps this renders Winn as a better contrarian DFS play that traditional streaming option, but he's still in play for a fantasy spot start.
Great Scott! The much-awaited debut for Christian Scott is on tap with the New York Mets promoting their top pitching prospect for Saturday's road date with the Tampa Bay Rays. Scott earned the nod with a 3.20 ERA and sparkling 0.72 WHIP over five starts for Triple-A Syracuse. The 24-year-old right-hander fanned 36 over 25⅓ frames, while issuing just six walks. The Rays check in with the league's sixth-lowest wOBA and strikeout rate, landing Scott as the slate's top-ranked streamer.
Sticking with Rays-Mets tilt, the Mets have allowed a league-leading 42 steals while throwing out just one. Meanwhile, the Rays have swiped the sixth-most bases, so look for them to try to rattle Scott by being active on the bases. Jose Caballero (15.7% rostered), Jose Siri (2.2% rostered) and Richie Palacios (1.4% rostered) are the primary pilfer targets.
Anyone whose strategy involves streaming pitching knows to check out who is scheduled to face the Chicago White Sox. On Saturday, Lance Lynn (44.9% rostered) and the St. Louis Cardinals will entertain the White Sox. Lynn has recorded a tidy 2.05 ERA over his past four starts, albeit with a slightly high 1.32 WHIP, fueled by 11 walks over those 22 stanzas. Lynn's pedestrian 17 strikeouts in that span warns of an ERA correction, but he should be safe for a start. The White Sox will bring the league's lowest wOBA into Busch Stadium.
The next two best teams to target as streaming opposition are the Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics. The two offensively challenged clubs square off the Coliseum with Paul Blackburn (31.4% rostered) getting the nod for the home team while Trevor Rogers (2.8% rostered) takes the hill for the guests. Both are in play for a fantasy spot start, with Rogers landing a few spots ahead of Blackburn on today's rankings.
Betting Tip of the Day: Christian Scott routinely fanned more than a batter an inning throughout his minor league career. He'll be making his MLB debut for the New York Mets on five days of rest and should have no pitch restrictions. Scott will face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup with an above average strikeout rate with a right-hander on the hill. Taking the over on 4.5 strikeouts (-110) is the safe play, but I like the odds on the over on 5.5 strikeouts (+210), which is my play.

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.0	Tyler Glasnow	R	ATL	99.6%	-185	8.5	51%	5.7	2.0	7.0
13.0	Framber Valdez	L	SEA	96.5%	-140	7.5	51%	6.1	2.3	6.9
12.7	Ranger Suarez	L	SF	93.4%	-185	7.5	58%	6.1	2.3	5.5
12.0	Christian Scott	R	@TB	10.3%	+100	7.5	51%	5.4	1.8	5.6
11.4	Pablo Lopez	R	BOS	97.3%	-175	7.5	62%	5.8	2.7	6.3
11.1	Lance Lynn	R	CWS	49.8%	-185	8.5	53%	6.0	2.7	5.8
10.9	Logan Gilbert	R	@HOU	99.5%	+120	7.5	49%	5.8	2.6	5.8
10.8	Andrew Abbott	L	BAL	19.3%	+100	9.5	56%	5.5	2.6	6.1
10.2	Zack Littell	R	NYM	18.2%	-120	7.5	49%	5.2	2.1	5.1
9.8	Jameson Taillon	R	MIL	18.3%	-130	8.5	63%	5.5	2.6	4.8
9.6	Kevin Gausman	R	@WSH	95.4%	-165	8.5	51%	5.6	2.9	6.0
9.5	Trevor Rogers	L	@OAK	3.6%	+105	6.5	43%	5.3	2.3	5.1
9.2	Paul Blackburn	R	MIA	34.8%	-125	6.5	57%	5.5	2.5	4.8
9.2	Bryce Elder	R	@LAD	13.0%	+155	8.5	49%	5.6	2.5	4.9
9.1	Clarke Schmidt	R	DET	19.2%	-165	7.5	48%	5.1	2.4	5.1
9.1	Jared Jones	R	COL	74.8%	-200	7.5	57%	5.2	2.6	5.3
8.9	Erick Fedde	R	@STL	43.3%	+155	8.5	47%	5.4	2.5	5.1
8.5	Brandon Pfaadt	R	SD	24.2%	-125	8.5	46%	5.5	3.0	5.3
8.4	Michael King	R	@ARI	63.3%	+105	8.5	54%	5.1	2.6	5.2
8.4	Casey Mize	R	@NYY	9.1%	+140	7.5	52%	5.2	2.5	4.7
8.3	Reid Detmers	L	@CLE	86.0%	+125	8.5	49%	5.3	2.7	5.3
7.9	Ben Lively	R	LAA	6.9%	-145	8.5	51%	5.2	2.9	5.1
7.7	Jake Irvin	R	TOR	4.2%	+140	8.5	49%	5.2	2.7	4.5
7.4	Keaton Winn	R	@PHI	15.9%	+155	7.5	42%	5.0	2.7	4.8
6.9	John Means	L	@CIN	8.9%	-120	9.5	44%	4.9	2.9	5.0
6.8	Dane Dunning	R	@KC	20.8%	-120	8.5	48%	5.4	3.2	4.8
6.7	Michael Wacha	R	TEX	10.2%	+100	8.5	52%	5.3	3.3	4.7
5.6	Austin Gomber	L	@PIT	0.7%	+170	7.5	43%	5.1	3.1	4.1
4.4	Chase Anderson	R	@MIN	0.2%	+150	7.5	38%	4.2	2.5	3.6
4.2	Tobias Myers	R	@CHC	0.9%	+110	8.5	37%	4.4	3.0	4.2

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 32%) at Andrew Abbott
Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 4%) vs. Michael King
Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 44%) vs. Tobias Myers
Rhys Hoskins (MIL, 1B -- 37%) at Jameson Taillon
Daulton Varsho (TOR, LF -- 47%) at Jake Irvin
Luis Rengifo (LAA, 2B -- 36%) at Ben Lively
Tyler Freeman (CLE, 3B -- 5%) vs. Reid Detmers
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 20%) at Michael Wacha
Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B -- 19%) vs. Erick Fedde
Alex Verdugo (NYY, RF -- 19%) vs. Casey Mize

Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

Tyler O'Neill (BOS, LF -- 69%) at Pablo Lopez
Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) at Abbott
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 56%) at Clarke Schmidt
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 61%) vs. Keaton Winn
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 52%) at Jared Jones
Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) at Framber Valdez
Jorge Soler (SF, RF -- 67%) at Ranger Suarez
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) vs. King
Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 65%) vs. Myers
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF -- 97%) at Tyler Glasnow