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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday's MLB games

          Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal is easily one of the highest rated starting pitchers of Thursday's six-game slate. Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images
          • Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterApr 4, 2024, 11:00 AM ET
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            • Fantasy baseball, football and basketball analyst for ESPN
            • Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
            • Author of "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments"
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Tigers' Skubal pushed again

          A mere six games grace the Thursday MLB schedule, with five of them coming during afternoon hours, eastern time. Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal was supposed to be easily the highest-rated starting pitcher of the 12, not only because he was on tap to face a struggling Mets lineup, but because he looks like a legitimate ace. Skubal made 15 big-league starts in 2023, compiling a 2.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with his final six outings making fantasy managers quite excited for 2024, as he posted a 1.25 ERA and 0.67 WHIP, walking only six hitters and striking out 52.

          Skubal's 2024 debut continued the dominant theme, as he permitted three hits with nary a walk in a 1-0 win over the White Sox. He fanned six. The beleaguered Mets have lost all four games they played (scoring eight runs), and have had three other games postponed. They had a relief pitcher and their new manager suspended, too. Thursday was supposed to be a day off, until rain intervened -- and now they have to play two games.

          Perhaps things are turning around? The Mets will head off for a 10-game road trip starting Friday, but at least they now will get to miss Skubal, as the Tigers have opted to promote Matt Manning to start one of Thursday's games, with Skubal going in the home opener on Friday.

          What you missed on Wednesday

          Mother Nature continues to wreak havoc on the MLB schedule with two more postponements. Last night's interleague affair between the Chicago White Sox and the Atlanta Braves has been rescheduled for June 27, which is a mutual off day for both teams. The Braves are off today, so Spencer Strider will get a couple extra days of rest in advance of his home start Friday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The White Sox open a four-game road series today against the Kansas City Royals. A bullpen game was expected last night, so the White Sox can drop those plans and send Michael Soroka to the hill on regular rest.

          For the second straight day, the New York Mets' game against the Detroit Tigers was called off. The clubs will play a single admission doubleheader today with the first game starting at 12:10 PM ET. It will be chilly, so the usual advantage of using batters with two games will be lessened, but with only four other games on the schedule, deploying hitters in Queens can't be avoided. On the other hand, two of the top four highest ranked starters on today's card are Tigers with Matt Manning (0.5% rostered in ESPN leagues) slated to take the hill in the second while Casey Mize (11.9%) poised to handle the opener. Tigers closer Jason Foley (31.8%) is a must add for the twinbill.

          Updating a note from yesterday, the timeline for Josh Jung's return is now eight to 10 weeks with Texas Rangers general manager Chris Young reporting the surgery to repair the fracture in Jung's right wrist was more involved than expected.

          Veteran Jason Heyward was placed on the IL with back soreness. He last appeared on April 1 so the earliest Heyward can return is April 13. Enrique Hernandez has been platooning with Heyward with Hernandez also starting the last two games in which the Los Angeles Dodgers faced a right-handed starter. However, the club claimed lefty swinging Taylor Trammell off waivers from the Seattle Mariners, so look for Trammell to claim the playing time against righties.

          It's been a rough first week for Kansas City Royals closer Will Smith. He secured the save on Tuesday, but was charged with a loss in his first appearance and again yesterday. Smith has yielded six earned runs in only 2 2/3 innings. He has thrown 28 pitches over the past two days, so he's likely unavailable today against the White Sox. The problem is next-in-line James McArthur hasn't fared much better, though he's been victimized by a bloated .538 BABIP which is sure to regress. McArthur pitched yesterday, garnering a hold despite yielding two runs in an inning to the Baltimore Orioles. Since McArthur threw just 12 pitches, and did not pitch on Tuesday, he'll likely get the call for a save today. If he converts, Smith's ninth inning duties could be in jeopardy.

          Another intriguing late-inning scenario is developing in the Minnesota Twins' bullpen. Griffin Jax logged the first two saves with expected closer Jhoan Duran sidelined with a sore oblique. Brock Stewart has served as the primary setup man. Yesterday, Stewart worked the seventh inning with the Twins leading the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3. This set up Jax to handle the eighth and the meat of the Brewers lineup. Jax delivered a clean inning, then the Twins added an insurance tally in the top of the ninth, which negated the save scenario for Steven Okert who walked the leadoff hitter, then fanned the next three to seal the four-run win. The takeaways are Jax may not gather all of the Twins saves in Duran's absence while Okert becomes more alluring in leagues scoring holds, since he may also log the occasional save. As for today, all three pitched yesterday, but since each was working on two days of rest, they are all available when the Twins host the Cleveland Guardians at 4:10 PM ET. Jax (13.8%) remains the primary pickup, with Stewart (1.5%) and Okert (0.1%) also in play on a short slate.

          Everything you need to know for Thursday

          • Twins ace RHP Pablo Lopez hosts the Guardians and their rather punchless lineup. Last season, when Lopez fanned 234 hitters in his American League debut, he struggled against Cleveland, posting a 4.58 ERA in three starts, permitting 24 base hits and seven walks over 17 2/3 innings (1.75 WHIP). Do not read much into those numbers. Lopez stymied the Royals in his season debut, striking out seven over seven innings of one-run ball. He sure looks like a top-10 fantasy starter, and perhaps an underrated one for Thursday based on these ratings.

          • The Pirates started this season facing myriad left-handed starting pitchers, leaving left-handed hitters Jack Suwinski and Rowdy Tellez struggling for playing time. Suwinski hit 26 home runs last season, all but two off right-handers, while Tellez has hit 44 of 49 home runs off right-handed pitching since the start of 2022. The Pirates face the Nationals on Thursday, and flyball-oriented RHP Josiah Gray should be good for a few long balls. Gray permitted 79 home runs over his first three big-league seasons (in only 71 starts), and then he allowed two home runs (seven runs overall) in his season-opening loss to the Reds. Keep Suwinski and Tellez in mind.

          • The lone night game on the schedule pits new White Sox RHP Michael Soroka against new Royals RHP Seth Lugo. While these pitchers are rated similarly, it doesn't feel like a fair fight. Soroka, the former Atlanta All-Star who finished second in 2019 NL Rookie of the Year voting, has struggled with injuries and performance since then. He permitted four runs over five frames in his White Sox debut against the Tigers, and perhaps the most concerning number in his line was nary a strikeout while facing 24 hitters. Lugo, who fashioned a 3.57 ERA for the Padres last season over 26 starts, then tossed six shutout innings against the Twins on Saturday, is the superior choice in fantasy.

          • Betting tip of the day: Things are not going well for the Marlins, winless after seven games, and they hit the road to face Lance Lynn and the Cardinals. Lynn is hittable, for sure, but the Marlins aren't hitting much. LHP Ryan Weathers got hit hard in his first start, and he has earned his career 5.91 ERA. Look for Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and their pals to tee off, so take the Over 8.5 runs (-125) and the home team to cover -1.5 (+140).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday