Milwaukee Brewers RHP Trevor Megill has been one of the top success stories among closers this season, as he entered this week with a 2.48 ERA and 19 saves in 21 opportunities. The surprising Megill, 30, with nary a save to his big-league resume prior to this season, missed a few weeks in April with a concussion, but he quickly emerged from a committee to save his first career game on April 25. He became the team's top closing option. The problem is, the real top closing option has returned to health.
Indeed, RHP Devin Williams was arguably fantasy's top relief pitcher over the past two seasons, saving 51 games with a 1.73 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 14 wins and 38% strikeout rate, and he may have been the top option in fantasy drafts this season if not for the early March announcement that he would miss roughly three months due to stress fractures in his back. Well, it has been three months. Williams has pitched well in his current rehab assignment, and he may re-join the Brewers any day now.
Fantasy managers should see opportunity here. Assuming Williams is fully healthy -- and why would the first-place Brewers risk anything if he was not -- there is not going to be a closing committee. Williams will close, Megill will join Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero as setup options, decimating his fantasy value. Thank you for efforts, Mr. Megill, but Williams is one of the best relief pitchers in the sport. That's just how it goes.
By the way, for those still studying pitchers like Williams and not running backs like Kyren Williams, the relief pitcher remains available in nearly 60% of ESPN standard leagues. That will change quickly. We cannot presume top-five closer performance over the final two months, but he does have the ability. Go get Williams if you can.
Stock rising
Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk, LHPs, Miami Marlins: The dreadful Marlins really should move these veterans at the trade deadline for future assets, and it becomes anyone's guess who replaces them for leverage roles. Perhaps fantasy managers should ignore the Marlins if Scott and Puk move on. Did you know they rank as the top two relief pitchers on ESPN's Player Rater over the past 30 days, and each is a top-three reliever for fantasy points over that span (along with Houston Astros LHP Josh Hader).
Scott, who retired two hitters in last week's All-Star game, has not permitted a run in nearly six weeks. One of fantasy's top surprises last season, when he struck out 104 hitters, Scott should be rostered in more than 61% of fantasy leagues, whether he is dealt or not. Puk has been nearly as dominant, not permitting an earned run for four weeks, while piling on the strikeouts and holds. They deserve to pitch for contenders.
Kirby Yates, RHP, Texas Rangers: Yates handled the eighth inning for the AL in the All-Star game, fanning two of the three hitters without incident and, like Miami's Scott, there is little reason for fantasy managers to ignore him, even if he ends up on another team next week. The Marlins surely are more likely to trade assets than are the Rangers. Yates boasts a 1.24 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season, and after saving only three wins in June (not his fault at all) he already has six saves in July. Saves are fickle, based on opportunity. Yates is making the most of his one-year contract, and he may close for a better team soon.
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies: The best team in baseball may interrupt its ninth-inning tandem soon, as LHP Jose Alvarado has struggled with his control lately, while Hoffman continues to dominate. Hoffman has fanned all six of his outs over his last two appearances. He has permitted just one hit and nary a run over his last seven outings. The surprise All-Star lowered his ERA to 1.09, while Alvarado has allowed runs in four out of six appearances, spiking his ERA to 4.24. Hoffman should see more save chances moving forward.
Stock falling
Evan Phillips, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Phillips was struggling before the All-Star break, having allowed runs in four out of six outings, but was still soundly in play for closing opportunities. That situation changed this past weekend, when the Boston Red Sox got to Phillips for four hits, five runs (four earned) and a pair of walks on consecutive days, while he earned only four outs. RHP Daniel Hudson rescued Phillips to save Sunday's win.
Phillips' last save came on July 5. Thanks in part to a suddenly ineffective slider, left-handed batters are enjoying themselves against him with a .320/.393/.640 line, forcing manager Dave Roberts to turn to Hudson and LHP Alex Vesia. It seems likely the Dodgers will add bullpen assistance by the deadline, too. For now, Phillips should not be in active fantasy lineups.
Alexis Diaz, RHP, Cincinnati Reds: Diaz finished up the first half of the season by allowing seven hits and four runs (one earned) over three outings -- and those runs didn't exactly come against offensive powerhouses (Marlins, Detroit Tigers). His last save came on July 3. Last season's ERA, walk and strikeout rates are but a memory for Diaz, whose average fastball velocity is down to 93.9 mph, far from his 95.7 mph average in 2022. The sputtering Reds continue to assign him all their save chances, though, as intriguing RHP setup man Fernando Cruz is having a rough July as well.