One of the highlights of the latest offseason has been the influx of players from Asia, with pitchers from Japan the most prevalent overseas additions to MLB rosters. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has dominated the headlines, but Shota Imanaga, Yuki Matsui and Naoyuki Uwasawa will all be joining the group of hurlers coming over to the United States from Japan. A couple of Korean players -- pitcher Woo Suk Go and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee -- have also signed major league contracts.
As all six are expected to play major roles for their teams this season, an outlook for each of these players will follow, along with the names of five players to track as potentially being part of the next wave of players to enter MLB from Asia. Before that, though, we thought it would be wise to provide some background and context. After all, Shohei Ohtani's 2018 arrival in Anaheim may have skewed expectations a bit.
Here in 2024, we're at the point where enough players have made the transition that we know how to compare their final overseas season to their first MLB season and generate a baseline from which to work. However, that's only part of the story. A year ago, the fantasy baseball spotlight was on the implementation of MLB's new rules and how they might affect player performance. The same questions need to be asked when gauging future production for the players cited above.
To that end, I enlisted the knowledge of friend and colleague Tim McLeod. Tim is a dynasty-league wonk, but he also plays in the League of Alternative Baseball (LABR) and Tout Wars, the foremost industry leagues. One of Tim's passions is stocking his dynasty rosters with players from other countries who are likely to be posted. While researching such players, he's become familiar with the culture and style of play overseas. He graciously agreed to address a few of my questions and concerns.
At least through last season, MLB was alone in instituting the pitch clock. Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) is considering it for 2025, while the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) will use it in their upcoming 2024 season. I was curious as to whether the pitch clock would disrupt the routine of pitchers. Tim explained the pace of play overseas may not be as rapid as what transpired in MLB last year, but it wasn't especially slow. In his opinion, after an initial acclimation period, working with a pitch clock should have no effect.
Next on my list was stolen bases and if the new rules governing steals would influence these pitchers. Last season there were 0.92 steals per game in NPB, compared to 1.44 in MLB. Two years ago, there were 0.91 SB per game in the majors, so the leagues saw similar steals volume before last year's rules-influenced MLB uptick. Tim wasn't concerned, noting Yamamoto did a good job in controlling the running game. I'm a bit worried, perhaps because Japanese pitchers tend to use a more deliberate motion, inviting runners to take off. Even so, it's not anything for which I'm going to account in the projections.
Fantasy enthusiasts are likely aware there is less travel and only a six-game per-week schedule overseas. Tim offered an interesting tidbit in that realm. NPB plays a 143-game schedule with two leagues of six teams. Every club plays three games against each team in the opposite league, and a whopping 25 games per team within their league. Tim and I agree this should not hurt the incoming pitchers -- and it may in fact help them. One of reasons for these pitchers having such expanded repertoires is to be able to handle seeing the same hitters over and over again. This should be a benefit, since throwing a wider variety of pitches may make it harder for opposing batters to "get a book" on the new hurlers.
To be honest, our chat didn't unveil any major areas of concern, but it served to satisfy my curiosity in a couple of areas, so that I could present the following with a greater peace of mind. Earlier, I said that we have ample data to translate skills of pitchers coming to MLB by aggregating the stats of their last overseas year and comparing them to those of their first year in the majors. So, let's do that.
The overall trend indicates that skills decline across the board. Strikeouts changed the least, going from 8.95 K/9 to 8.87 K/9. The difference in walks was greater, moving from 2.53 BB/9 to 3.16 BB/9. The home run data is expected, but the extent of the change is a bit alarming, more than doubling from 0.58 HR/9 to 1.32 HR/9.
Keeping all that in mind, here's how we see things shaking out in 2024 for our six new arrivals:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers, coming over from Orix (NPL)
The question isn't whether Yamamoto will be effective, but rather exactly how effective he will be. He's already won Japan's equivalent of both the Cy Young and MVP three times -- and he's just 25 years old. Many experts, including Tim, feel that Yamamoto is the most talented hurler ever to make the overseas transition, and that includes both Ohtani and Yu Darvish.
Tim says Yamamoto's training regimen is like no other, as is his desire to be the best. Yamamoto practices yoga and has been the talk of the Dodgers camp with a warmup routine that even involves throwing a javelin. When he switches to a baseball, Yamamoto throws a four-seam fastball which sits 94-96 mph, a curve, a cutter, a sweeper and a splitter. The splitter would rank as the best one in MLB according to Stuff+, a metric derived by Eno Sarris from The Athletic.
In Japan's shorter season, Yamamoto started only 23 games in 2023. It's clear the Dodgers will give him at least five days rest as often as possible, if not between every outing. Even by gaining an extra start thanks to the early Seoul Series, Yamamoto is earmarked for between 26-28 starts. In Japan, he averaged over seven innings per effort as he was very pitch efficient. It's difficult to envision Yamamoto averaging much more than six frames per outing in Los Angeles, though, portending between 150-170 IP for 2024.
Projections utilize a three-year weighted average as the foundation. Here is our expectation for Yamamoto, along with his NPB numbers over the previous three seasons.
Considering Yamamoto is the best pitcher to ever transition from overseas, the translations of everyone else will not be nearly as rosy. Also, keep in mind all 2024 projections account for team and venue.
Based on early drafts, Yamamoto is a top-12 fantasy SP. His ratios warrant a pick in that neighborhood, but he needs to land in the higher end of his projected workload range in order to merit such a lofty rank. Opting to take that risk depends on the format, but the hype could grow even more, pricing Yamamoto out of plausible profit potential.
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs, coming over from Yokohama (NPL)
Imanaga started the championship game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic, won by Team Japan. "Small sample size" warnings apply, but he was graded as the top pitcher in the tournament by Stuff+. He throws a 92-94 mph four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and split-finger changeup. He's not overpowering, but Imanaga commands and controls his fastball well, and his splitter is solid.
Imanaga's biggest concern is the longball. Translating his HR rate, according to the data presented above, it equates to about a 2.20 HR/9. To put that into persepctive, last year in MLB, Lance Lynn was the worst of all qualified pitchers with a 2.16 HR/9. Translations are not always proportional, but even if Imanaga sports just a 1.50 HR/9, his ERA will suffer.
If Imanaga's strikeout and walk rates translate according to plan, he projects to have a 22.8 K-BB%. This would have landed him fifth among qualified starters, between Freddy Peralta and Zack Wheeler. For context, Peralta sported a 1.41 HR/9 last season, resulting in a 3.86 ERA. This is probably the best-case scenario for Imanaga, with the likelihood of an ERA between 0.25 and 0.50 higher than that.
Yuki Matsui, San Diego Padres, coming over from Rakuten (NPL)
Matsui recorded 95 saves over the last three seasons in NPB, including 39 in 2023. He joins a Padres bullpen without a clear-cut closer. Robert Suarez is considered to be the favorite for saves, with Matsui and Woo Suk Go (see below) also in the mix.
Matsui is a 5-foot-8, 167-pound lefty, so he doesn't fit the mold of a typical MLB closer. His fastball sits just 91-93 mph, but Matsui throws a slider and forkball, both plus-pitches, with his forkball showing diving action to complement his four-seamer.
The key to Matsui's success will be control. Last season, he posted a 5.9% walk rate, translating to a 7.0% mark -- which is well below the MLB average of 8.6%. However, in the prior two years, Matsui's walk rates were 9.8% and 12.2%. While it's encouraging that it dropped for the second straight year, if Matsui reverts to past levels, late-inning duties are in jeopardy.
Matsui should be lumped in the speculative closer bucket. Unless he's named as the Padres primary closer, though, he is best utilized in a streaming capacity, especially in leagues which award points for holds.
Naoyuki Uwasawa, Tampa Bay Rays, coming over from Hokkaido (NPB)
Uwasawa was a starter in Japan, but his likely role with the Rays will be as a reliever. He's signed to a minor league contract with an opt out if he doesn't break camp with the big club, but the 30-year-old right-hander has indicated he would report to the minor leagues if that's where he's assigned.
Uwasawa isn't nearly as intriguing as the first trio of names we've discussed. His strikeout rate last season was just 17.8%. It was 21.0% and 21.1% the previous two seasons, but even those are well below MLB average -- and that's before the numbers get docked by the translation factor.
Uwasawa's allure is that the Rays have done a solid job of getting the best out of their hurlers. While that's a positive endorsement, it doesn't quite move the fantasy needle.
Woo Suk Go, Padres, coming over from LG (KBO)
Go joins Matsui in the Padres bullpen. Like Matsui, Go was a closer overseas, collecting 139 saves over the last five seasons. Go features a 94-95 mph heater which can touch 98, and a slider. He's likely to start the season behind both Suarez and Matsui in the Padres' saves hierarchy. As such, he's more of someone to keep back of mind in case his situation changes, rather than someone to roster in fantasy out of the gate.
Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants, coming over from Kiwoom (KBO)
Fun fact: Lee and Go are brothers-in-law. With Lee slated to play center field and lead off for the Giants, the NL West denizens may face each other a few times.
The translation for batters, especially those coming from KBO, are far less robust. The rule of thumb is to treat their stats as if they came from playing in Double-A, using the average Double-A MLE (major league equivalency).
Lee's game is getting on base. He lacks in both power and speed, so he'll need to rely on his elite contact skills in order to be effective. Lee had a career .340 average in the KBO, though he hit just .318 last season, half of which he missed due to a broken ankle.
With a 7.7% career strikeout rate and a 9.7% career walk rate, Lee has some wiggle room, just in case his plate skills don't completely transition. For fantasy purposes, Lee will be most useful as a daily streamer in category-based leagues for a boost in batting average. The left-handed swinger will also score runs if he hits well enough to stay atop the Giants lineup.
Finally, let's tag Tim back in for a brief review of some of the players most likely to become part of the next wave of new talent coming across the Pacific Ocean over the next couple of years.
Roki Sasaki, SP, Chiba Lotte: Sasaki won't turn 23 until November. He sits triple-digits with his fastball along with plus-secondary stuff (including an amazing forkball). He's expressed an interest to play in MLB, but it's unclear if he has a handshake agreement to leave before 2025 or if he needs to wait until after his age-25 season, when the international rules won't be in play and he can be a true free agent.
Munetaka Murakami, 3B, Tokyo: Murakami displays the best pure raw power in Japan, After the 2022 season, Murakami signed a three-year contract extension with a clause indicating the Swallows must post him after the 2025 season.
Kona Takahashi, SP, Saitama: Takahashi asked to be posted this past off-season, but his request was rejected. He will make his way to MLB at some point, perhaps in 2025. Walks were a problem, but the righty has improved his control over the last couple of seasons.
Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B, Yomiuri: Okamoto has slugged at least 30 homers for six straight seasons, including a career high 41 last year. The catch is that Yomiuri doesn't generally post players. Even so, this is a talent worth tracking.
Shugo Maki, 2B, Yokohama: More of a long-term consideration, Maki is likely 2-3 years away, if he even desires to play in MLB at all.