The recent midseason top-50 prospect rankings compiled by ESPN's Kiley McDaniel have Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll at the very top, and fantasy baseball managers certainly have much to look forward to with this talented player. Carroll, 21, may not debut in the major leagues until next season, since he has batted only 116 times at Triple-A Reno, but his full-season numbers at three minor-league levels this season sure do impress. We're talking about a .315 batting average with a 1.047 OPS, 21 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 85 games.
Carroll didn't exactly fall out of favor with fantasy managers during a 2021 season in which he batted a grand total of 29 times, but certainly there were concerns when he needed season-ending surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. There is always some degree of risk in projecting players with significant shoulder injuries, even batsmen, and Carroll's development was delayed. Well, he has alleviated all worries this season. Carroll, the No. 16 overall pick in the 2019 draft, is a five-tool talent with power, speed -- and plenty of both -- combined with plate discipline. He figures to handle center field in Arizona for a long, long time.
Fantasy managers often try to look at the most recent season for advice on how to handle investing in prospects, but there are few answers there. Every player is different. Just look at the Seattle Mariners with Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez. Everyone loved them both entering the 2021 season, with Kelenic a bit more beloved at the time. And then, well, Kelenic played in the majors. He was terrible. People tried to make the case that Rodriguez would struggle, too. Now he's a potential first-round pick in 2023 fantasy drafts. Don't try to read into prospect comparisons or history.
Three rookie-eligible players just missed my top-100 roto ranks entering this season, with Chicago Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki leading the way ahead of both Kansas City Royals IF Bobby Witt Jr. and Rodriguez several rounds behind. Later in the rankings, I was aggressive with Detroit Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson, Houston Astros SS Jeremy Pena and Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman. Suzuki's situation was different, obviously, with years of professional experience and maturity, and a guaranteed big-league job. It looks pretty silly now, as Suzuki ranks 74th among outfielders on the full-season Player Rater, while Rodriguez and Witt are top-20 players overall and Rutschman just might make the Hall of Fame by next week.
All jokes aside, Rodriguez, Witt and Rutschman are obviously special. Perhaps Torkelson joins them next season. I've compared him to Chicago White Sox 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn, another right-handed power bat and top pick who struggled in his first season, but who knows? Heading into 2021 we all thought Kelenic, Philadelphia Phillies 3B Alec Bohm and Pittsburgh Pirates 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes were special. Perhaps they will be.
Anyway, none of this has anything to do with Carroll. He looks to be a special talent and we should find out next spring, but my very early opinion on 2023 rankings is that he may just end up at the back end of my overall top 100, before we even know when he will debut in the majors. It's OK to be really optimistic.
As for the rest of McDaniel's list, here are others I may be really aggressive in ranking for 2023 purposes. After all, turns out I wasn't aggressive enough on Rodriguez, Witt and Rutschman at all.
Orioles 3B Gunnar Henderson ranks second on the list, and there is a good chance he debuts this September -- like, in just a few weeks -- because the big-league baseball team is contending for a playoff spot (which is awesome, by the way). Henderson is quite polished as a hitter but seems unlikely, at least early on, to have the same impact for fantasy in terms of home runs and stolen bases. Remember, McDaniel's list is not for fantasy purposes. That noted, Henderson seems like he belongs in my top 150 for next season, for sure. For context, Jonathan India, Ty France and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. just barely made it into the top 150 this season.
New York Yankees SS Anthony Volpe has 16 home runs and 39 stolen bases for Double-A Somerset, and it seems reasonable that the organization would want to give him a few hundred plate appearances of Triple-A action before promoting him. Or perhaps not, as the current big-league team struggles. Regardless, it may be tough to select Volpe in 2023 redraft formats unless we think he starts offering big-league statistics by June. I'd probably rank him after Round 20 for now. Sure, he figures to be better in fantasy than Houston's Pena, for example, but we knew Pena was making the Astros for Opening Day.
St. Louis Cardinals 3B Jordan Walker is No. 5 on McDaniel's list and the fact that he now sees regular starts at each outfield spot (including center field) for Double-A Springfield is a strong indication that the organization realizes he's nearly ready to hit major-league pitching. That's something he can't do as a third baseman with Nolan Arenado on the roster for myriad more years. Walker is hitting .306 with 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 92 games. As with Volpe, he'll need a few hundred plate appearances at Triple-A before joining the big club, but he figures to be impactful enough for us to rank him in the top 250.
Texas Rangers 3B Josh Jung is staying at third base, and his situation is a bit reminiscent of Carroll's in that Jung is having his own "lost season" right now. Shoulder surgery kept him off the diamond until he made his 2022 debut only a week ago at Triple-A Round Rock. Jung boasts an impressive 1.464 OPS and four home runs in his first six games. Small sample caveats apply, of course, but Jung is hitting .323 with power across his minor-league career, and he sure appears to be ready. The Rangers don't need to promote him in the next month to realize he's capable of starting next Opening Day for them. If I ranked Torkelson in my top 200 this season, Jung warrants that same kind of attention for 2023.
Where are the pitchers and catchers? Well, there's a big difference in projecting immediate fantasy relevance for hitters and pitchers. There is far more variance, too, and by the way, a struggling pitcher can torpedo a fantasy team in the standings far more than a hitter can. I think Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez may make the team next April, but I cannot rank him among the top-75 starters yet. The same goes for Cleveland Guardians RHP Daniel Espino, No. 12 on McDaniel's list but lacking any Triple-A experience.
As for catcher, Francisco Alvarez (New York Mets), Gabriel Moreno (Toronto Blue Jays) and Tyler Soderstrom (Oakland Athletics) all rank quite well on this list, but the task of being ask to handle the responsibilities of catching and being able to hit like Rutschman has so far? That can challenge even the top prospects. In addition, while the Mets would seem most likely to push Alvarez because of his lack of positional competition and the team's lofty expectations, Moreno and Soderstrom may need trades to open up a path to playing time. That noted, any or all of these players could join Rutschman among the top-10 fantasy catchers by next summer. Since you only need one catcher in ESPN leagues, it's best to focus on other positions.