Monday morning's news that Fernando Tatis Jr. needs surgery to repair a fractured wrist certainly upends many fantasy baseball drafts, as he was Tristan H. Cockcroft's No. 7 overall player for points-based leagues and Eric Karabell's No. 3 overall player for rotisserie formats, at the time. Early indications are that Tatis will miss up to three months, which would place his probable return sometime in mid-June.
We asked the hosts of our ESPN Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast to weigh in on where they think the San Diego Padres shortstop should be drafted in the wake of this news.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: There are so many frustrating things about this bit of terrible news, not the least of which is that we've now seen three huge names in our game -- Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr. and now Tatis, dealing with "fantasy landscape altering" injuries over the past year. It's probably completely unfair to put Trout and Tatis in this same sentence, but Tatis' injury history is growing similarly disconcerting, as he has played in only 71% of the Padres' games in his big-league career. Thankfully, he's still only 23 years old, with plenty of time to reverse that trend, but I already had injury questions about him, mostly related to the shoulder issues he played with throughout 2022, and that was the reason for his mere No. 7 overall ranking.
Frankly, he would have been my No. 2 overall player (Shohei Ohtani still presents a huge format-specific advantage in points leagues) if injuries weren't a question. Tatis' contact quality is massive, effectively tops in the league, and he's a 48/30 player on average in the big leagues when scaling to 162 games played. Now? Gosh, I'm really not sure how far I'd push Tatis down in the rankings because of the upside he still brings when on the field, but I'd say it's in the Jake Cronenworth/Trevor Story range, which is 10th-11th among shortstops and between 91st and 119th overall (pending other adjustments currently in process today).
Eric Karabell: I moved Tatis into the eighth round, which might not be enough based on him potentially missing half the season, but then again, he is a special player and a five-category provider in roto. I remain concerned about the iffy shoulder popping in and out of place, and we always worry about wrists healing properly and sapping power. Then again, Tatis overcame the shoulder issues a season ago to produce monster statistics. I could see him being fantasy's best player for the second half of this season and, whereas it would be silly to risk a truly high draft pick on him at this point, I guess Round 8 is where I would start considering him. I don't know -- ask me in a week? We are hardly doctors. What concerns you more, Tristan, his shoulder or his wrist? Oh, and this has to affect his dynasty worth as well, right?
Cockcroft: To the "not being doctors" point, the first thing I react with is how much of the last two years' worth of baseball has been clouded with periods where I can't trust we're getting 100% of the injury updates we usually do. This one came out of nowhere, probably in part because teams couldn't interact with players during the lockout, and I can point back to all those 2020 pandemic periods where players had issues addressed during the downtime, so could that happen here? The persistent shoulder issues bothered me back in April of 2021, and at midseason, and they still bother me now. They're not in the rearview mirror for me. But you're also spot on that Tatis excelled despite the longest of odds when healthy last year. He's truly special and there's no saying he can't deliver 15 weeks of excellence (rather than a full 26 weeks).
Dynasty-wise, I don't think this changes a whole lot, other than the concern I raised about an injury pattern, plus the missed 2022 time. It's a rich crop of young players, though, so he's probably not going to earn that No. 1 overall spot now. Still, he's surely going to stay among my first-rounders.
I think Tatis is now the ultimate risk/reward pick for 2022, and your bench/injury spot rules come directly into play. I can see a top-50 case just as easily as one that has him 200th. I really don't think I'll be drafting him for the expected price in a points league.
Karabell: Yeah, messing with durability concerns in drafts tends to not be my thing, even while acknowledging the massive statistical upside. Perhaps I need to be more aggressive in dropping him in the rankings. On our Monday podcast, we discussed who plays more games between Trout and Acuna and I think we would both reluctantly agree that Tatis now ranks third on that list. Then again, we rank Trout and Acuna far better. What I hate doing is calling a player "brittle" and then rethinking his overall value because of it, but I just do not know how we can avoid this discussion with Tatis. It's such a shame.
Meanwhile, we must discuss the impact on the Padres. Unless they sign Carlos Correa or Story, at this point we presume Ha-Seong Kim is the shortstop. He's a solid defender who showed little at the plate. Cronenworth could slide over from second base, too. Manny Machado has played a little shortstop in his time as well. The Padres have options and I bet they add another infielder at some point soon. This may all set up Tatis to handle outfield duties permanently when he does return. It may not affect fantasy this season, but it could in the future. And, of course, missing his bat for half a season hardly helps Cronenworth, Machado and the rest of the Padres lineup.
Cockcroft: That's a good point about the increasing possibility of an outfielder's future for Tatis. My initial thought was that the Padres are set up nicely as far as roster flexibility and that all this means is that the fantasy names we know get a small boost as they divide up the vacated at-bats. I'm a Trent Grisham fan, for example, and yes, Cronenworth (retaining shortstop eligibility!), Kim and maybe even Jurickson Profar benefit. I'm not moving anyone up, though, since -- barring one of those out-of-nowhere moves you hinted at -- the at-bats will get spread around. That will be offset by the loss of overall lineup production, affecting the runs/RBI/turns through the lineup anyway.
Karabell: Ultimately, fantasy managers need to prepare for injuries in their drafts/auctions and decide how much it matters to them. There are no guarantees about what day Tatis returns -- or Acuna for that matter. Trout is not playing all 162 games. These are great players, but decide your level of risk before drafting. It may be higher in some leagues depending on the rules, the depth, all of it. In a standard ESPN league, a 10-teamer, there will be replacement players on the waiver wire. Perhaps you would be more likely to draft Tatis and Acuna there. Know your league rules and just hope for the best when it comes to health.