Value, in fantasy baseball, is in the eye of the beholder.
He's an example I've used often on these pages during his still-young career, but Adalberto Mondesi is as illustrative as you'll find entering 2021. Currently, in ESPN leagues, he's going outside the top-50 picks overall, despite the fact that, from Sept. 4 forward last season he was the most valuable player in fantasy baseball, not to mention that I've ranked him a full round earlier than his ADP (Average Draft Pick) number. In that regard, I consider Mondesi to be a relative bargain -- something I wasn't expecting at the offseason's onset.
Now shift to another ADP source, in this case that of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), which are traditionally 15-team leagues that utilize two catchers in their lineup. Mondesi's ADP there is No. 23 overall, or more than 30 spots sooner, despite the fact that he wasn't even a top-600 fantasy performer through Sept. 3 of last season. That is too steep a price to pay, in my opinion.
But the phrase "in my opinion" is really the crux of the matter, isn't it? We each have our player likes and dislikes, and identifying the contrast between yours and that of your leaguemates represents the quest for finding value. Value is, in effect, the manner in which you put your personal stamp on your fantasy team.
Welcome to my annual "Tristan's Twenty," where I share my value picks, or the names I expect to grace my rosters most often, for the upcoming season. They've been selected accounting for several measures: My rankings, ESPN's ADP, offsite ADP data, comparisons to other analysts' rankings, and industry drafts I've either participated in or witnessed. Always try to acquire as many valuation reference points as you can, so you can identify your best candidates for your own leagues.
Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins
He showed an encouraging progression during his age-23, 24 and 25 seasons (finishing SP38, SP30 and SP23 on the ESPN Player Rater), only to have a look of giving back many of those gains in 2020 (SP47). Besides 2020 representing a precariously small sample size, Berrios' fastball never seemed right, as he used it roughly 5% less often, with hitters batting .380 against it and making hard contact 60% of the time they put it into play. Still, the right-hander threw it harder on average than ever before (94.5 mph) and, with all pitches combined, he had career-best strikeout and swinging-strike rates, which suggests this was a fastball command issue. That's fixable. Berrios is still a top-20-starter caliber arm, going at a price a bit beneath that.
Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
His rookie season, on the whole, might have been statistically forgettable, but consider the context before drawing rash conclusions. Carlson's Cardinals had a 16-day gap between games due to their early-season COVID-19 outbreak, after which he was summoned from the alternate site -- his first of an eventual two stints there -- just in time for the team to play three doubleheaders in his first five days in the majors (and he indeed played every inning for them in that five-day stretch). Carlson didn't really seem to capture momentum until his mid-September recall, after which he slugged .611 with promising underlying metrics. That's a small sample, but that's what the whole year was, and we should all remember that we were on board with the possibility of 20/20 numbers and a .280 batting average from him one year ago at this time.
Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
He got off to a horrible start in Boston's first 20 games of 2020, just as he did through the same stage of 2019. Still, the .378 wOBA he had in the team's final 40 contests was eye-catching, being that it was a point better than he had in 2019 as a whole (.377). Here's another fact supporting his underlying MVP-caliber ability: Devers and Christian Yelich are the only two players who has had top-10 qualified Statcast average exit velocities in both of the last two seasons. I look around the industry and see countless ranking sets placing Devers at the bottom of that four-man, Nolan Arenado/Alex Bregman/Anthony Rendon third base tier (and Manny Machado isn't leaps and bounds ahead of it, either). I see no reason to be any less enthusiastic about Devers in 2021 than any of the others.
Ty France, 2B, Seattle Mariners
He's the kind of pick you should love at the back of your mixed-league draft. This is a line drive-hitting, versatile performer who has many paths to playing time on a rebuilding team. France managed a .302 batting average and a 32.8% line-drive rate while playing all but two innings of Seattle's final 23 games of 2020, making at least four starts at three different positions (second base, third base and designated hitter). While it wasn't present in the majors last year, France has exhibited more lift on the ball in the upper minor-league levels. There's a path to a .300-plus, full-season batting average here, just as there is to a 20-25 home run season -- although probably not both, as 15 homers might be the max in a .300 season, with a .270 average more likely to accompany the increased power.
Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres
Many of his underlying metrics suggest that he's a way better player than he has shown in the majors thus far and, to be fair, he was awfully good in 2020. Grisham has exhibited 92nd-percentile (or better) Statcast sprint speeds in both of his two big-league seasons, had a manager-pleasing 10-of-11 success rate stealing bases last year, has flashed elite center field defense and cut his chase rate (swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone) by more than 3% from 2019-20. Looking at his swinging-strike metrics, I find it difficult to believe that he has struck out more than a quarter of the times he has come to the plate in the majors thus far (25.7%, to be exact), with my immediate reaction that some polish to his two-strike approach might vault him into fantasy's elite. Grisham's multi-category ability makes him quite appealing in this steals-starved environment and, if it's a coin-flip call, I'd say he leans more towards the side of "budding superstar/top-30 performer" than an overvalued sixth-round pick.
Sean Manaea, SP, Oakland Athletics
Pinpoint control and a ground-ball leaning has always been a welcome pair in a pitcher. Manaea is one of the best at the former, with a 6.1% career walk rate that shrunk to 3.6% in 2020, and he kicked his rate in the latter up to 50.6% last season. No, he's probably never going to be a strikeout artist, with a 90.3 mph (2018-20 rate) fastball that he throws the vast majority of the time. That said, he's a capable, low-risk starter who calls one of the most pitching-friendly environments his home. I'd guess the low K-rate is why Manaea's ADP is only so-so, but he's got enormous potential. After all, in his last 30 regular-season starts, he has 15 wins, a 3.46 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
J.D. Martinez, DH, Boston Red Sox
His 2020 season was disastrous and it's a campaign those who rostered him won't soon forget. Still, recency bias is a dangerous thing in his case, especially considering there's a possible explanation for the poor performance. Martinez was one of the most vocal players regarding his frustrations about limited access to the video room. Martinez's struggles were almost entirely about his performance against fastballs. He batted .173 with a .265 wOBA against them, down from .352/.461 from 2017-19 combined. What if the diminished level of video access was indeed the primary cause? Martinez averaged a No. 25 overall Player Rater finish and No. 33 fantasy-point ranking from 2017-19. We shouldn't forget that.
Dustin May, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Like Manaea, May might not garner the level of fantasy attention he deserves because he doesn't miss enough bats. His strikeout rate thus far is only 20.8%. Still, the 23-year-old has exhibited a good sinker, a good cutter, an extreme ground-ball leaning and an ability to limit hard contact -- all impressive traits for a pitcher of his age and with his limited experience. May also throws hard (his sinker can touch 97 mph) and he has a progressing curveball. With a little more control, he could take a significant leap forward in one of these next few seasons. People are probably afraid to draft him because they see a sixth starter/swingman role in his immediate future, but in a year like this, that's not a bad role to occupy. I want to be on board when May breaks out.
Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics
I keep coming back to this well, but can you blame me? Olson has prodigious (and underrated at that) power, with better-than-50% hard contact rates for 2018-19. It was a still-healthy 45.9% in 2020. He also had a Statcast average exit velocity that has placed in the 91st percentile or better in each of the last three seasons. Olson has homered 99 times in Oakland's last 434 regular-season games, or in 6.2% of his trips to the plate. Just to put into perspective how difficult that is in their pitching-friendly home environment, only 12 times has a batting title-eligible Athletics hitter manage at least that good of a rate, with Olson's 2019 being one and Mark McGwire accounting for three of those seasons. Olson's discounted power is something I want to snatch up before Round 9.
Chris Paddack, SP, San Diego Padres
Here's a classic case of a rookie splash followed by a sophomore slump sequel, except that Paddack's money pitch, the changeup, was every bit as excellent in 2020 as it was in 2019. Statcast said it was worth minus-10 runs in 2019 and minus-8 in the shortened 2020. What went wrong was that his four-seam fastball's command and spin effectiveness collapsed, and hitters batted a whole 104 points higher against it. Paddack entered spring training embracing the kind of advanced analytics that could help him recapture the feel for that pitch -- and that's always good to hear. He has a path to even bigger things than in 2019 if he continues to progress with a curveball that has shown promise early in the spring. I liken Paddack's valuation today to that fo Luis Castillo entering 2018, and I make the comparison in large part because they both possess outstanding changeups.
Freddy Peralta, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
To that earlier point about sixth starter/swingman roles not being a curse, Peralta is one of the game's most recognizable such candidates. Perhaps that's why no one recognizes him a draft-day consideration in 10- or 12-team mixed leagues. Frankly, I don't care what the Brewers do with him, as he'll deliver value regardless of role. They're happy to bounce him between starting, long relief or even short relief, each providing fantasy managers with a different contribution. Peralta's combination of elevated, 93-mph fastball velocity and the slider he added in 2020 boosted his strikeout rate to 37.6%, fourth-best among pitchers with at least as many as his 29 1/3 innings.
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Yes, he has some of the weakest hard-contact metrics in the majors. Yes, his 1.3 feet-per-second Statcast sprint speed drop last season was alarming, especially for a player who generates so much of his fantasy value from his legs. Then there was that report that Robles entered last July's Summer Camp having gained 15 pounds of muscle, surfacing memories of Willie Mays Hayes from "Major League 2." Still, I think last year was an unusual (and forgivable) one. In Robles' case, he entered this spring training committed to recapturing his speed and flexibility -- and his three stolen bases through his first six exhibition games supports the theory. Fantasy managers don't seem to want to pay any premium for Robles this year, but he's still just 23 years old and probably one of the most well-suited candidates to steal 40-plus bases in the game. If you're discounting these stolen bases, I'll happily scoop up those savings.
Taylor Rogers, RP, Minnesota Twins
I'll state upfront that Rogers is a better pitcher, and more suited to close, than Alex Colome. That's no knock on Colome. It's reminiscent of the 2019 deadline deal for Sergio Romo, where Rogers was just fine in the closer role but the Twins weren't about to pass up an opportunity to acquire a good, matchups-capable arm for the late frames. Manager Rocco Baldelli isn't the type to care about roles, and he'll pick the best candidate to win in each save situation, which could be Rogers just as much as it could be Colome. I think there's a realistic path to them evenly dividing 40 successful saves. But here's something to consider if you believe their ADP gap should be wider than its current three rounds: From 2018-20, Rogers' (2.62) FIP was more than a run lower than Colome's (3.63).
Amed Rosario, SS, Cleveland Indians
A fresh start in Cleveland should do him some good, and that the team is willing to experiment with him in the outfield both enhances his paths to playing time as well as his flexibility in fantasy baseball leagues. Rosario is a free swinger, and that's a batting average/on-base percentage problem, but he provides some pop and has much better speed metrics than his 19-of-30 success rate on steals from 2019-20 showed. He's the kind of multi-category, multi-position player you should be targeting in the late rounds of a standard mixed league, and Andres Gimenez's scorching spring start is almost certain to even further suppress Rosario's ADP, increasing that profit potential.
Will Smith, RP, Atlanta Braves
If you're skeptical that he can close on an every-night basis, look no further than his 2019. He was 34-of-38 converting saves with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and a whopping 96 strikeouts. He was also 9-of-11 in saves with a 2.45 ERA when working on back-to-back nights. Smith is plenty capable, armed with a 93-mph fastball and an elite slider. My theory as to why his ADP is so modest is that he failed to capture Atlanta's closer role last year. However, you should remember that a positive COVID-19 test delayed his start to the season and, therefore, he wasn't presumed to be first in line. If you're grabbing full-offseason ADPs, you're doing yourself a disservice, because as the 2021 season dawns, Smith sure looks to be manager Brian Snitker's top choice, especially since he has plenty of other lefties (Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter) who can fill those middle frames. Smith is a great, low-priced saves target.
Will Smith, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wait, what? Another Will Smith? What is this, "Gemini Man"? This Smith's ADP isn't as tantalizing as the former's, but it's also important to remember the variability in catcher ADPs, being that those you'll find offsite often address two-catcher lineup formats, and I'd imagine that ESPN players who see those numbers might bring those influences here. Smith isn't worth a top-100 overall pick, but I also expect that many leagues will see catchers go later, and this youngster isn't one you should let last much longer than that. He enjoyed amazing 36% fly ball, 32% line drive and 47.3% hard contact rates last season. He also showed much better plate discipline in 2020 (at least during the regular season) than in 2019, earning the Dodgers' trust by playing the entirety of 23 out of their final 24 games (albeit seven of them at DH). Smith is growing into one of the position's top young stars.
Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers
Give him credit, as he was recalled from the Rangers' alternate site at roughly the 2020 season's midway point at the age of 21 and having played only 65 games of Double-A ball. He was immediately thrust into the team's everyday center field and leadoff roles. Yet, somehow he chipped in four home runs, eight stolen bases and a 41.6% hard-contact rate. Taveras swung and missed a lot, but he didn't have nearly those high-strikeout tendencies in the minors and, as he adapted to the majors, he began to show hints of learning and improving in that regard. The bottom line is he's fast, a 70-grade (on the 20-80 scouting scale) speedster who has a firm handle on the same role for a rebuilding team. If you need cheap steals, he's going at a great price.
Julio Urias, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
It's rare that I endorse the previous October's breakout pitcher, and Urias absolutely fits the "breakout" description, having recorded the final seven outs of the World Series. Nevertheless, that performance represented the official arrival of this highly touted prospect, concluding a two-month stretch during which he had a 2.12 ERA, an 0.78 WHIP, a .157 batting average allowed and a 26.2% strikeout rate in 11 appearances. Urias is already one of the game's best at minimizing hard contact -- he had a top-five Statcast hard hit rate among pitchers with at least his inning count in both 2019 and 2020. Plus, he hasn't had any problem maintaining elite, 94-plus-mph fastball velocity in his quest to completely miss bats. The only (and most remote) doubt I have about his 2021 is his projected workload, but even 150 frames would result in huge fantasy dividends.
Evan White, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Let's get this out of the way. White made contact barely better than 50% of the time in 2020, with Miguel Sano being the only qualified hitter who did worse. Still, lurking beneath what was a surface-level disaster of a rookie stat line was that he had a 52.5% Statcast hard contact rate that ranked in the 95th percentile, not to mention seven home runs and .226 isolated power over Seattle's final 40 games. White, who had long been regarded a glove-first, batting average-oriented prospect, seemed to flip his entire scouting profile upside-down. He accumulated the whiffs and utilized a much more power-oriented swing. The defense should remain great, fueling playing time, and the rest looks like a player who just needs to adjust and bring the whole package together. He'll only cost you a song -- probably one of my bad ones, at that -- but is certainly worth a flier if you're hurting at first base.
Brandon Woodruff, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
I've watched a lot of drafts this offseason, and Woodruff frequently falls into a "starting pitcher gray area," rarely regarded as one of the 10 universal first- and second-tier options and instead casually bunched in with the next group with ADPs (with 4's and 5's as their first digit). The only reason he's not a locked-in, top-10 starter for me is the question about his ability to approach 200 innings. He has just one professional year over 121 2/3 IP and the Brewers love to mix-and-match -- all game, every game. Woodruff's stuff, on a per-inning basis, is every bit as good as most of the pitchers in that tier. His first-pitch strike rate has soared over the past three years, all the way to a stunning 67% in 2020. He has a great put-away slider, a 96-plus-mph four-seam fastball and sinker, and he has advanced his changeup to the point that he's no longer a platoon-split concern all. If you're looking for a less-prominent Cy Young pick, here's your guy.