I traded for San Francisco Giants closer Will Smith in an NL-only league on Monday afternoon and, while I had to do it because the offer simply made perfect sense in relation to my team's needs, I really do not know if I will be getting 25 more saves or perhaps no more than a handful. The rumor mill is buzzing with talk about the Giants trying to move their closer -- and for sensible reasons -- although I find that too often fantasy managers read too much into rumors and the potential for real-life player movement. Sure, Smith might pitch for another team in a setup role later this week. It could also happen on the final day of July, which is fine. That's three months away. Perhaps he gets hurt. Perhaps he saves 30-plus games. It is all a risk.
Here are the facts. Despite Monday's come-from-behind win, in which Smith saved his seventh game, the Giants are underwhelming and likely will not be playoff-bound for the third consecutive season. They're clinging to the memories of a magical run of World Series titles with older players and, perhaps, after years of denial, they even realize it. Smith is playing on a one-year contract at the age of 29 following his best season, and relief pitchers are highly volatile in the first place. There is no guarantee in RP performance from week to week, let alone from season to season. April and May trades in real life are rare, but the same credo holds forth in real life as it does in fantasy. Why wait until the trade deadline to acquire a player or the statistics you know you need when you can do so months prior? Hey, it makes sense!
Giants manager Bruce Bochy, who is retiring after this season, keeps mentioning that right-hander Mark Melancon -- who is nearly impossible to trade due to his contract -- will see save opportunities. It all seems odd, but then again, Bochy must know the Giants can move Smith whenever they want. This is not a call for fantasy managers to invest in Melancon. After all, he is 34 and getting by on guile these days. He last reached 40 innings in a season back in 2016. To me, it is not a problem recommending Smith. He is a better pitcher, even for a role in which opportunity occasionally trumps skill -- and despite a higher ERA that only blew up Sunday when the New York Yankees got to him. Smith's investors should not feel an unusual need to sell, either.
My point is -- and this might run counterintuitive for a writer -- do not believe every rumor you read. In this particular trade, I had my choice of Smith, Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Hector Neris and Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Greg Holland in exchange for a starting pitcher to better balance out two fantasy teams. I chose Smith, who was terrific last season and, really, this season until Sunday. He has seven of his team's eight saves and he retires hitters from both sides of the plate. The case is also temporarily clear for Neris, who is a closer today but perhaps not this weekend if David Robertson returns. Holland appears to be in no danger of losing save chances to anyone as long as he thrives. It might not work out, I admit, but there are risks for most players. Smith boasts a 2.77 ERA over 82 innings in a Giants uniform and, Melancon talk aside, this is not a closer timeshare. It is all Smith for today. Until it isn't.
As for Neris and Holland, they have their risks as well, though they are not currently in the rumor mill. Neris has pitched exceptionally well since his recall from Triple-A Lehigh Valley for the final six weeks of 2018. When his splitter is working, it is indeed tough to hit. The Miami Marlins got to him in his second inning of work last Thursday night, but Neris closed out his next save chance and warmed up Sunday when the lead was only three runs in the eighth inning. Robertson should be in play for save chances soon, and lefty Adam Morgan (a failed starter thriving in relief) has earned a role as well, so there is risk that Neris will end up having to share. The rumor mill could say Neris is in danger of sharing the role soon. As with Smith, what would that really mean?
With Holland, it is clear that Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano are both setup men. The reason Holland remains available in nearly 40 percent of ESPN standard leagues is a trust factor after he was so bad for much of 2018 -- and that's no rumor. The St. Louis Cardinals gave him a one-year deal for $15 million and released him after 25 innings of a 7.92 ERA and 2.24 WHIP. He saved nary a game for them! Holland pitched well later for the Washington Nationals, however, so who knows what to believe? Still, the current version of Holland looks very good. He is the only one of 32 pitchers with three-plus saves who has yet to permit a run, earned or otherwise. I suppose if it lasts much longer and Smith is setting up, either in Cleveland or ahead of Kenley Jansen, then I will have chosen poorly. Then again, Smith could also end up closing in Boston or Atlanta!
The other current closer mentioned in the standard rumor mill as trade bait is Baltimore Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens. Again, this might seem obvious, but last-place teams -- and the Orioles are 3-10 in home games! -- do not need to employ good closers. They should trade them for "the future" whenever possible. Bad Phillies teams of recent lore returned usable players for the likes of Ken Giles and Jonathan Papelbon. The Orioles and Giants can both find someone else to save their games. Then again, there is no hurry, either -- so Smith and Givens investors should take a deep breath. It should not be this way, but the market for Smith and Givens might not heat up for another three months.
Monday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: 2-for-3, HR, SB
Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves: 2-for-4, HR, 2 RBI
Mike Soroka, SP, Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Zach Davies, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Lowlights:
Todd Frazier, 3B, New York Mets: 0-for-5, 2 K
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals: 0-for-4, 2 K
Patrick Corbin, SP, Washington Nationals: 5 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston Red Sox: 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Tanner Roark, SP, Cincinnati Reds: 3 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
Monday takeaways
��Casey Mize throws a no-hitter in his Double-A debut!��
The top #Tigers prospect spins a Maddux (98P) and the @erie_seawolves' 2nd no-no in five days.
��: https://t.co/3WqK8zWYJF pic.twitter.com/ZccHs5HUEL
- Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) April 30, 2019
Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize was the first pick of the 2018 amateur draft and, as such, was likely targeted by many a dynasty league manager quickly. It makes sense. Then again, it would be a big surprise if Mize, no matter how well he should perform in 2019, makes his big league debut before 2020. As such, those in redraft formats need not react to this efficient no-hitter, as impressive as it was, by adding him to teams. The Tigers are not likely to compete for a playoff spot in 2019, so rushing this potential ace seems silly. Still, those Mize investors have to love his Double-A debut, dreaming of potential top-20 fantasy starting pitcher status by, well, let us say 2021!
Milwaukee's Jesus Aguilar entered play with a .123 batting average and not a single home run. I admit I was not feeling much like activating him in any league. Now he has two home runs! Pessimists can note that the right-handed hitting Aguilar hit these home runs off Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, just coming off the injured list. It is quite possible Aguilar hits the bench in favor of Eric Thames for Tuesday as the Rockies plan to go with right-hander German Marquez. Fair enough, but Aguilar slugged 26 of his 35 home runs last season versus right-handers. One nice Monday does not mean all is well for the most-dropped first baseman in ESPN standard leagues but, if you still have him, keep him around a little bit longer. Remember what Matt Carpenter did after mid-May last season.
The Tampa Bay Rays are not messing around! The organization promoted 1B prospect Nate Lowe and hit him fifth, as the designated hitter, at Kansas City. Lowe doubled and walked in five plate appearances after hitting .300 with power and plate discipline at Triple-A Durham. Lowe, not to be confused with unrelated second baseman Brandon Lowe, should provide modest power and batting average. He is one to watch, even in standard leagues, but first base is deep. Christian Walker and Luke Voit remain available in too many leagues. Those investing in Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz, among other Rays, should not worry. They will continue to play and hit.
Health report
Giants LHP Derek Holland has a bone bruise on his left index finger and should miss a minimum of one outing. However, what caught my eye was his potential replacement in the rotation this week. Right-hander Tyler Beede is a former first-round amateur pick who earned raves this spring for improved control and he has thrived at Triple-A Sacramento, with 34 strikeouts (10 walks) and a 1.99 ERA in 22⅔ innings. While this hardly means fantasy managers in standard leagues should run out to get him, it is not too late for Beede, 26, to emerge.
Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder A.J. Pollock has an elbow infection and figures to miss at least the rest of this week and part of next -- but the good news is that this is not a long-term problem. Pollock has had long-term issues in the past. The Dodgers can turn to Alex Verdugo and he looks terrific.
W2W4
Los Angeles Angels right-hander Griffin Canning makes his big league debut against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays. Canning posted big numbers at Triple-A Salt Lake (0.56 ERA, 17 K in 16 innings) and the Angels sure need rotation help, but I find it dangerous to rely on rookie pitchers. Studies show the first outing is often a good one in comparison to later when hitters get the proverbial book on the newcomer but still, it is risky.
Interleague play is in full bloom on Tuesday as the Tigers, Cleveland Indians and Yankees all lose the designated hitter in trips to NL parks. Fortunately, each of those teams is either so short-handed due to injury or has the ability to move its usual DH options to first base, as in the case of Miguel Cabrera, who should be with Aguilar on your bench anyway thanks to a .364 slugging percentage that shows no signs of rising. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs play in AL parks. One would assume Kyle Schwarber will handle the DH duties -- which is so obviously perfect for him with the Cubs playing in Seattle, as he is no Gold Glover in left field.
Most recent KaraBlogs
Monday, April 29: Weekend wrap, young Nationals hitters, prospects
Thursday, April 25: Free agents to get, including Gio Gonzalez, Brandon Lowe and Mike Soroka
Wednesday, April 24: Kris Bryant struggles, Luke Voit does not
Tuesday, April 23: Closer report: Seattle's slew of options
Monday, April 22: Weekend wrap, injured stars edition