Identifying breakout pitchers is one of the most fun parts of the fantasy baseball season.
What is a breakout? There is no set definition, which is what makes it so fun, but for the purposes of this article, I'll be looking at starters drafted outside the top 50 by average draft position who could jump into the top 30.
Intriguing arms within that top 50 who are being tabbed for breakouts include Lance McCullers (the biggest mover during the past seven days), James Paxton and perennial breakout contender Kevin Gausman. Those are the known potential breakouts, though. I'm going a little deeper so you don't have to pay such a premium in your draft for a potential big hit.
Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: 212.4 overall, SP56
The former Mariners super-prospect came over in the big Jean Segura trade this winter, and looks poised for the big season he's been hinting at for a few years now. Of course, Walker is just 24 years old, so it's not like we've been waiting forever.
It looked like we were getting the breakout last year, as he posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.12 WHIP combo through June, but it fell apart from there. He made just 10 starts the rest of the season and missed a month to foot tendinitis. We later learned that 10 bone spurs were rattling around in his foot, greatly influencing his delivery. No doubt, they were the culprit behind his disgusting 2.1 HR/9 IP rate in those last 10 starts.
A reliable third pitch has eluded Walker through his first 357 major league innings, but he has been developing a slider this spring to go with his fastball/splitter combo. He is the rare pitcher who struggles more against same-handedness batters, so a slider could be just what he needs to chisel into that .809 OPS he had against righties last year. Moving from Seattle to Arizona is a downgrade in park, but substituting pitchers for DHs cancels out some of that. With health, he has the stuff to conquer any environment.
Jharel Cotton, Oakland Athletics
Pick: 227.6 overall, SP76
A brilliant post-call-up performance from the 25-year old Cotton didn't go unnoticed, but it also hasn't driven his price too high, thankfully.
He came over in the big Rich Hill deal last year, and showed off his brilliant slider in a five-start stint to close out the season (2.15 ERA, 0.82 WHIP). Nobody thinks he can maintain those kind of numbers over a full season, but a 3-something ERA in 170-plus innings is definitely doable. In addition to an elite changeup, he has a fastball (92 mph), cutter (88 mph) and curve (77 mph), giving him three different velocity bands (the change and curve are both high-70s) to keep hitters off balance from the change.
Perhaps the most impressive part of his debut was the 13 percent swinging strike rate, which bodes well for his strikeout rate going forward. He fanned only 7.1 batters per nine innings, compared to a 10.0 mark in 447 minor league innings. Swinging strike rate correlates very well with strikeout rate, and so he's due for a big upgrade if he continues to miss bats at this clip.
The A's might not be ready to let Cotton push north of 180 innings in his first full season as a major leaguer, but the surge in strikeouts will offset a shortened workload. Look for an upside of a 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 in 170 innings. For those concerned about the innings total, there were four pitchers with fewer than 180 innings in the top 25 SPs on the Player Rater last year.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals
Pick: 232.2 overall, SP77
It can be lazy to compare a player to their older brother if all the pair share is a last name, but Joe is a spitting image of Tyson Ross. In fact, he's Tyson 2.0 as he's already flashed a viable third pitch, which has eluded big bro throughout his career. Unfortunately, he also shares the health concerns that have plagued Tyson (and currently have him shelved in Texas).
After putting together a 3.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 95 1/3 innings, Joe was sidelined for over two months with shoulder inflammation. He made it back in September for three abbreviated starts (2.79 ERA, 14 Ks in 9 2/3 IP) and an uninspired postseason start (2 2/3 IP, four earned runs), but regardless of the results it's just a positive that he finished the season on the field.
Ross is overlooked in a rotation with two aces (Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg) and two established veterans (Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez), which is fine, because it keeps the fantasy hype down, too. If anything, it's a positive to be around four pitchers who have done so much in their careers already. Health is undoubtedly the major concern, as Ross can be successful even if the changeup takes some time, but the price is such that the risk is minimal. A former top prospect who sits 93-94 mph with a devastating swing-and-miss slider? Yes, please.