Living in Port St. Lucie, Florida, I have been able to follow the career of Michael Conforto since he played for the Class A St. Lucie Mets. I think he is going to be a solid major leaguer, if not a future All-Star. I believe the Mets feel the same way. He is one of their prime prospects and, what's more, he's already shown he has the chops to succeed in the majors.
Of course, it hasn't been all smooth sailing. Coming off a fine debut in 2015, he was batting .365 with four home runs last April when the wheels came off. Conforto's batting average plummeted to .222 in the next seven weeks and he was sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas. During the last three months of the season, Conforto bounced back and forth between the Mets and the minors. While his numbers in New York recovered only slightly, he batted .422 with nine home runs in 128 Las Vegas at-bats.
Some industry analysts believe the Mets simply mishandled him in 2016. However, so far this spring, Conforto is looking good. He has gotten into 16 of the 25 games the Mets have played, posting a slash line of .356/.370/.622. That's an elite OPS of .992. Yet his current average draft position (ADP) is only No. 322. Going outside the top 300 makes him undraftable in a 12-team mixed league and barely draftable in a 15-teamer. In NFBC online auctions, his average price has been $2.
When I ask people why he is being drafted so low, I get one of two responses:
"He can't hit left-handers." (Well, maybe give him more than 62 AB to really find out.)
"He has no path to playing time." (This is incredibly short-sighted.)
I suppose we're all wired to believe that the current reality is fixed, but that's not how the baseball season works. When we draft a player, we are not really buying the productivity for that player in his current role. We are actually buying a roster spot for six months. We might hope the player spends the entire season productively occupying his spot, but that rarely happens. Slumps, stints on the DL, and managerial whim can all end up shuttling several players in and out of roles.
Here are two important facts all fantasy owners need to recognize:
On average, when you come out of your draft, you will already have 7-8 players on your roster who have some injury risk. These will either be players who spent some time on the disabled list last year, have had offseason surgery or are currently nursing some miscellaneous aches and pains.
By the end of the season, 10-12 players on your roster will have spent some time on the DL. With the introduction of the new 10-day DL, that number could be even higher.
The abundance of DL days opens up many opportunities for undrafted players. Thirty years ago, an average of 39 players made an appearance on each MLB roster during the course of a season. These days, the number is 52. That's 13 more players per team fighting for a nearly fixed number of plate appearances and innings. This splintering of playing time means more chances for a good player to make an impression.
And good players can carve their own path to playing time.
History has shown how often we pass up profit opportunities because we don't view the season as a whole. Getting mired in "no path to playing time" costs us opportunities. Going into last year's drafts, we all expected that Trea Turner could be an impact player, but he had no path to playing time. His ADP on Opening Day was No. 299. Gary Sanchez had an ADP of No. 480!
Back in 2012, despite being hyped as the one of the two best prospects in baseball, Mike Trout came into the season with an ADP of No. 228. Angels manager Mike Scioscia said that, barring an outfield injury, the 20-year old would begin the season in the minors. With Peter Bourjos the incumbent in center field, was it so far-fetched to think that Trout might see regular work before too long? Trout ended up with 559 AB, hit 30 HRs, stole 49 bases and batted .326. Bourjos, well, didn't.
So where is Conforto's path to playing time? Lucas Duda is not exactly the embodiment of health, so a trip to the DL might move Jay Bruce to first base. Aside from the first half of 2016, Bruce has only been a .223 hitter since 2014 -- plus, he had a .612 OPS in Citi Field last year. Yoenis Cespedes has spent time on the DL three times in the last five years and is often missing time even when he's in the dugout. Curtis Granderson's OPS has cracked .800 once in the last four years, and he's now 36. This is almost too easy.
You can find cases like Conforto's throughout each team's depth charts.
Is there any doubt that Yoan Moncada is going to take over at second base for the White Sox at some point -- and likely soon? Yet, he's going at No. 245. Why is anyone even drafting Tyler Saladino?
Think about how we viewed A.J. Reed last year at this time. He came into 2016 ranked No. 298. He's No. 486 now. Yes, his debut was terrible, but he's only 24 and hasn't lost his skills. He might be behind Yuli Gurriel at first base for the Astros, but the Cuban import is 33 and 130 AB hasn't proven anything yet.
Is it a stretch to think that A's prospect Franklin Barreto might make some noise this year? Currently going outside the top 500 (wow!), he's behind Jed Lowrie, who's spent the equivalent of a full season on the DL over the past two years. I can't imagine that Adam Rosales and Joey Wendle will stand in his way.
The Brewers outfield might seem blocked off for Lewis Brinson (No. 419) but Ryan Braun remains a trade chip, Keon Broxton is unproven over a full season and Domingo Santana might be better suited to a weak-side platoon.
Other head-scratchers: It's tough to think of Trevor Plouffe blocking Matt Chapman (No. 716) in Oakland, Justin Smoak blocking Rowdy Tellez (No. 640) in Toronto, or Freddy Galvis blocking J.P. Crawford (No. 462) in Philadelphia.
There are reverse speculations, too. David Dahl might be hurt, but it's absurd to discount him with any speculation that Gerardo Parra will hold on the starting job in Colorado once his health returns. Dahl is too good.
You might say that we can only trust in what we know, but all we know is how each team's depth chart shakes out today. However, we also know there is almost a 50-50 chance that opportunities will open up -- and those opportunities could yield big profits. Because this is a game of percentage plays, those are odds worth taking.