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'It's like a Chiefs-Pirates derby' - Nigeria and South Africa promise thriller WAFCON semifinal

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How Nigeria got the best out of Esther Okoronkwo to demolish Zambia (1:31)

Ed Dove thinks Nigeria have unlocked the potential of one of Africa's best attacking players as Esther Okoronkwo shines in Nigeria's big win over Zambia. (1:31)

Nigeria's deep history in the tournament will collide with South Africa's recent surging momentum when both sides meet in the semifinal of the Women's Africa Cup of Nations on Tuesday.

Of the 12 previous editions, the Super Falcons have won nine and chasing their 10th title, while South Africa are hoping to defend the lone crown they won at the last edition. Banyana Banyana are chasing their third consecutive Final, and have played in six overall Finals.

Despite the Super Falcons dominance, both of the tournament, and of their head to head encounters in this competition and outside, Nigeria coach Justin Madugu is ceding the favourites tag to Banyana Banyana going into the contest.

"We are not looking at them as underdogs," he said. "They will be favourites as defending champions. They took the crown from us, so we want to do the same."

Nigeria have not gone two WAFCONs without a title since... never. South Africa want a third consecutive final, to become only the second team to retain the title after Nigeria and, of course, the symbolic shift it brings.

One is fighting to restore supremacy. The other is fighting to confirm it was no fluke.

"When we won the last WAFCON we said that medal is going to mean so much, that the medal is going to change things at home," said Banyana Banyana coach Desiree Ellis.

"Some things have changed, some haven't changed. Winning again hopefully will elevate women's football. We yearn for a professional league back home because we don't have a professional league and hopefully through that, it will make sponsors realize that it's not just talk.

"Hopefully that will spur sponsors to come forward not just Banyana Banyana but also league football, youth football as well as a professional league.

"That is the most important thing, getting a medal to change things, getting a medal to create opportunities, getting a medal to make sure that women's football continues to grow and develop with sponsors on board."

History favours Nigeria, by no small margin

These two sides are no strangers to each other. Both have been involved almost from the very beginning of competitive African women's football in 1991, when Nigeria brushed past all opposition and then beat Cameroon in the final.

South Africa's first involvement came in four years later, when they made their way to the final, only to suffer an 11-2 shellacking on aggregate, including an embarrassing 7-1 defeat in their own Johannesburg backyard.

While the scorelines do not have the same lopsided look these days, the numbers in the win-loss column aren't even. Between 2000 and 2022, both sides have met at the tournament nine times. Nigeria have won six times and South Africa three times.

In total, the teams have clashed 25 times since that first meeting in a 1995 FIFA Women's World qualifying match that the Falcons won 4-1. The Super Falcons have won 15 times, with six games ending in draws and the Banyana winning four times.

Still, the South Africans have established themselves as the most consistent threat to Nigeria's dominance on the continent, with their slick play and possession-based football.

Since securing their historic first win back in 2012, they have won three of the last four games between the sides at the tournament. Additionally, they bested the Super Falcons four years ago to win the Aisha Buhari Cup in Lagos in September of 2021.

They did suffer a setback in 2024 Olympic qualifying, losing 0-1 on aggregate over two legs. But both coaches are quick to downplay the significance of past results while talking up the intensity of the rivalry.

"Every game is different," said Madugu. "What has passed has passed. Tomorrow's game is the one that determines what happens and we are fully ready towards that."

Ellis agreed: "Winning the last two games against Nigeria doesn't mean anything. It is a completely different game, it is a completely different tournament. Three years down the line, you don't look back, you look forward.

"Results in the past tells you that you can but it doesn't meant that it is going to happen until you step out on the pitch and try to do our jobs. We are not looking at past results, we are looking at the now. We know it is going to be a difficult game.

"You take things for granted at your own peril and this team is a team that will never do that. We will give them the respect that they deserve but we are also a team that can play."

One thing both coaches do agree on is that the rivalry between the two will be a huge factor in motivating the players.

"They are South Africa, we are Nigeria," Madugu said. "We all know what is at stake when it comes to games between countries. We know what rivalry means between us so we are not take it anything for granted."

Said Ellis: "It's like a Chiefs-Pirates Derby where you know who you are up against. The players know the strength of Nigeria. So I don't think they need any motivation."

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1:48
Why South Africa need a 'big improvement' ahead of WAFCON semifinal

Ed Dove reacts to South Africa's penalty shootout win over Senegal in the semifinals of the Women's Africa Cup of Nations.

Will Nigeria's winning line-up remain?

The Super Falcons coach has made it clear that his selection choices for a starting XI are based on the opponent and what strategy he decides to employ.

The suggestion is that there will be more tweaks to that selection against Banyana Banyana, despite the side coming off a 5-0 thrashing of Zambia on the weekend.

Madugu acknowledged that it is a tough call to make: "When you have a group of players where everyone is showing desire, everybody wants to play, everybody is working and doing what they are supposed to do and then out of 21, you can only pick 11 to start, It's tough.

"You have to watch every single thing they do, because when you have three people playing one position and you know that any of that three can do what you want, how do you separate them?

"And then you also have to look at the opponent, their strengths and weaknesses and decide which of the players will do best against that particular opponent."

It is unlikely Madugu will start with the same lineup he did against Zambia. Expect a more robust midfield to counter Banyana's passing and possession game, as well as a bit of physicality.

Unlikely to be a goal-fest

Nigeria may have blown Zambia apart in the quarterfinals and South Africa may have squeaked past Senegal on penalties, but a high-scoring game here would be a surprise.

Since 2008, games between both sides have been decided by a single goal, and never more than three goals in total have been scored per game. This one should be no different.

Both sides boast excellent defences. Between them, they have only allowed one goal in eight games so far, leaving the margins razor thin. On the other hand, they are the two highest scoring sides in the tournament, with 16 goals between them.

One area where that might be a factor would be in the aerial contests between the two. Despite being smaller, Banyana Banyana won most of their aerial duels against Senegal in and outside the box.

Nigeria are not only bigger than Senegal, but also won most of those duels, too. That should be an interesting sub plot to keep an eye on.

To add a little more spice to the jollof, South Africa have not lost a WAFCON game in regulation time since 2018, but Madugu is hoping to change that: "Records are meant to be broken. No matter how long it takes. We hope that by tomorrow that record will no longer exist."

Ellis acknowledges that the tactical battle will ebb and flow: "You just have to be on top of your game because you are coming up against an opponent that is very strong, and opponent that hasn't conceded and that has scored goals. So we have to make sure that we have a Plan A and Plan B and a Plan C.

"The quality that they have in the team has always stood out. The experience they have in the team, that has always stood out. The confidence they have in the team, that has always stood out.

"Over the last couple of years we have sort of matched that. But if you look at the Nigeria squad they have now, it is a very good one. It is a squad that they have shown at this tournament that they are here to fight and we must be ready for that."