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ESPN's Win Probability (WP) model liked that 4th down decision on the goal line by the Eagles. In total it was a +3.4% WP decision. WP for a FG attempt would be 69.3%, while the WP for going for the touchdown was 72.7%. Philadelphia needed a 41% chance of success to make it worth the risk, and the league average there is 57%.

Brian Burke, ESPN Analytics7y ago