After a dazzling first season that saw her win Rookie of the Year honors and elevate WNBA betting interest to new levels, Caitlin Clark's second campaign has been largely derailed by injuries, much to the chagrin of the Indiana Fever, and to bettors who backed her and want to continue backing her in the betting markets.
After not missing a game during her four years at Iowa and her rookie season in the W, Clark has missed 11 contests this year, including the Commissioner's Cup final, which the Fever managed to win without her. ESPN reported that WNBA betting was down as much as 50% with Clark on the bench during her first extended absence in May. More recently, BetMGM told ESPN that it has seen 39% fewer tickets and 32% less handle in Fever games this season when Clark doesn't play.
Clark's absence most immediately impacts the MVP futures market, where she was easily the most backed player at the beginning of the season; ESPN BET reported upward of 63% of the bets and handle on her to win the league's highest individual honor. Clark entered the season as the +200 favorite and was briefly odds-on at -115, but then consistently lengthened due to injuries all the way to +3300, fourth on the board.
Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier, meanwhile, was the second-most backed by bets (13.7%) and handle (22.1%) at ESPN BET and has rewarded those who took the chance on her +300 preseason odds, jumping out to a commanding -550 odds lead coming out of the All-Star break. DraftKings now reports Collier as its most-backed pick by wagers (47%).
The only player who can seemingly challenge Collier for MVP at this point is Alyssa Thomas, who has been resurgent in her first campaign with the Phoenix Mercury. ESPN BET gave Thomas +4000 odds to win MVP at the start of the season, but she has jolted all the way to +550 after leading Phoenix to a somewhat surprising third-best record in the league.
Sportsbooks, however, were largely wise to her ascendancy and moved her odds quickly, making her less appealing to bettors, who are backing her with less than 2% of the handle across the marketplace. In general, the public is more attracted to the odds of Breanna Stewart (+2000) or A'ja Wilson (+5000) outside of Clark and Collier.
Chasing the title
Clark's presence or lack thereof has influence on more than just the individual markets, of course: After entering the season at +350 to win the 2025 WNBA Finals, the Fever have slipped to +825, according to ESPN BET odds. Indiana was easily the sportsbook's most backed team with 67.8% of the handle on opening night, and while that number has fallen somewhat, bookmakers are staying wary of what Clark & Co. can do under the right circumstances.
"The Fever are, by far, still our most bet team to win the championship," said ESPN BET VP of sportsbook strategy & growth Adam Landeka over email. "Bettors seem confident that Indiana will make the playoffs, where a healthy Caitlin Clark can potentially lead them on a run. Especially with a more attractive price right now, this is a market we'll be keeping a particularly close eye on until the end of the season."
As a representative from BetMGM put it, "The action on the Fever is so lopsided at this point, we are not concerned at this time with other teams."
That would include the Mercury, who began the campaign at +1000 and have worked their way down to +550 at ESPN BET. The book reports the team as its fourth-most backed by total bets, leading Landeka to call them "one of our bigger liabilities," though it would appear to be much less than the danger Indiana poses.
Landeka also notes some significant liability on the Golden State Valkyries, who have massively outperformed preseason expectations as an expansion team, surpassing their win total of 8.5 on June 29, less than halfway through the season. Now up to 10 wins, Golden State is just outside the playoff picture and shows odds of -140 to make the playoffs -- an enormous improvement from the +1300 they had at the start of the campaign, per ESPN BET lines.
For those overperformers, though, there were some underperformers -- most notably, the Las Vegas Aces, who began the season tied with the Fever for the second-best title odds at ESPN BET and have fallen all the way to +2500, seventh on the board; the Aces' bet share at the book has diluted significantly from 11.1% to 6.5%.
Notably, the "no" option on Las Vegas' to make the playoffs market began the season at +1800, and now stands at +380.
Undisputed ROY?
Bookmakers largely expected Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers to be the most impactful rookie in the WNBA this season and were dead-on with that prediction. The 2025 first overall draft pick was a consensus odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year and has only widened the gap amid a spectacular professional debut, going from -275 to -5000 at ESPN BET.
Of course, bettors foresaw this coming as well, backing Bueckers at high rates across sportsbooks, but those incredibly short odds dictated that she won't be a problem for the books even if she wins the award.
BetMGM notes "no liability" on Bueckers, while Landeka says that Washington Mystics players Kiki Iriafen or Sonia Citron (both +3000) winning would be worse results for ESPN BET. Landeka also mentions that Seattle Storm center Dominique Malonga, who is currently off the board, has the most tickets to win Rookie of the Year.