Betting the NBA Finals: Bets that stand out for Game 4

The Indiana Pacers continue to play the the role of the little engine that could.

Bennedict Mathurin came off the bench to pour in 27 points in Wednesday night's 116-107 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder to lift the Pacers to a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals.

Indiana's reserves outscored the Thunder bench 49-18, and now the Pacers will be looking to build on their series lead at home on Friday.

Despite the 2-1 series deficit, the Thunder remain the favorite to win the Finals (-220) and are 6.5-point road favorites in Game 4.

Here are our analysts' bets that stand out for Friday's game, scheduled to tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN3.

Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET

Game 4 bets that stand out

Pacers +6.5 (-120) vs. Thunder

The Pacers have established at this point that they are, at worst, on the Thunder's level in this matchup. The Thunder being favored by 6.5 points, on the road, is the equivalent of them being favored by almost double-digits at a neutral site. This would only make sense for two very unevenly matched teams, and I don't believe that to be the case. Plus, the Pacers play better than their norm in Indianapolis, with the role players more likely to produce excellent results, while the Thunder in these playoffs have played significantly worse on the road (4-4, -7.1 point scoring margin) than at home (10-2, +19.7 scoring margin). I expect the Thunder to give their best shot to stay in this series, but even in their Game 4 wins in their previous two series, the games have been close and competitive. I'll take the Pacers with the points. -- Snellings

Bennedict Mathurin over 10.5 points (-115)

Mathurin's scoring has been inconsistent in these playoffs, but when he's had one great game it has tended to suggest another is coming. In other words, his good scoring games have come in clusters. In the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks, his 13-point game was followed by a 14-pointer. Against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the conference semifinals, he scored 11 points in Game 1 and followed that up with 19 and 23 in the next two games. Same story against the New York Knicks in the Eastern finals; he hadn't produced double-digits in any of the first three games, but when he dropped 20 in Game 4 and followed that up with 23 in Game 5. Fast forward to this series. After scoring 14 points in Game 2, he went for a career playoff-high 27 last game. I believe he's got the third strong game in the set coming, enough that he should against surpass 10 points. -- Snellings

Jalen Williams under 32.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-115)

Williams is coming off an excellent Game 3 in which he posted 26 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in 36 minutes, but I expect Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle to make defensive adjustments to slow him down in Game 4. And with the Thunder down 2-1 in the series, MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projects to have a massive usage rate and should be ultra aggressive with the Thunder trying to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole. It's worth noting that Williams has gone under this line in 12 of 20 games this postseason. -- Moody

T.J. McConnell over 13.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-125)

McConnell has cleared this line in each game of the Finals, despite averaging just 16.6 minutes per contest, and has gone over this mark in seven of his past nine playoff games overall. If the Thunder want to slow down the Pacers in Game 4, they'll need to contain Tyrese Haliburton. Whether or not they succeed, McConnell has consistently provided a spark off the bench, and that trend should continue. -- Moody

Projections and injury reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET

Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers

8:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Line: Thunder -6.5 (-120) | Pacers +6.5 (EVEN)
Money line: Thunder -230 | Pacers +190
Total: 227.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 0.6, straight up 52%, 226.3 total points.

Injury report:
Thunder: Nikola Topic, (OFS - Knee)
Pacers: Jarace Walker, (OUT - Ankle); Isaiah Jackson, (OFS - Achilles)