The NFL draft is one of my favorite betting events of the year. And just like betting on-field action, I rely on the data to make my wagers for the draft. The key is ESPN's Draft Day Predictor: a probabilistic draft forecasting model. The model utilizes expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs and uses those inputs to determine the full range of outcomes for every prospect based on how predictive those factors have been in the past.
It's important to think of the draft like any sporting event, in probabilities rather than certainties. It may feel like everyone is mock-drafting Mason Graham to the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 5 (more on that in a minute), but even if 100% of mocks included that result, would it be 100% certain? Of course not. And living in that uncertainty is where the predictor -- and hopefully, our bets -- shine.
This year, the predictor sees a bunch of different values across the proverbial betting board, so let's dive into bets it likes at ESPN BET, starting with a long shot I love.
Odds accurate as of time of publication. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET
Players at specific draft slots
No. 4 pick: Mason Graham (+2500)
Scouts Inc. grades Graham as the third-best player in this year's draft, and he is very frequently mocked at No. 5 to the Jaguars. The main contention here is if a player is good enough to be +125 (!) to go fifth overall, surely there is at least a 4% chance he goes one pick earlier. That's all we need to justify this bet and the predictor easily thinks we're there.
The reason Graham is 25-1 is that defensive tackle is one of the few spots that isn't a need for the New England Patriots. But the fact that New England has so many needs makes them a trade-down candidate, and the fact that teams might strongly suspect the Jaguars will take Graham could lead someone to want to jump ahead of Jacksonville to select him. Plus, there's some outside chance that the Patriots simply select Graham because they feel he's the best player, need or not need. It may be an upset, but it feels a lot more plausible than 25-1 to suggest, and the Predictor agrees. We're way off market to a degree I wouldn't buy (32% chance to go fourth overall) but it only has to be slightly directionally correct to be profitable.
The model also likes Graham to be a top-5 pick at +200.
It's not technically a need for the Las Vegas Raiders with Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce on the roster, but the latter is coming off a lost season and signed only a one-year deal this offseason. If the team feels Walker is the best pass rusher available, there's no reason they can't take him.
Plus, both the Predictor and the betting market are confident that Walker will go somewhere between 6 and 10. This feels like a solid price considering we're in that range. The Predictor prices Walker at +285 here.
Other bets in this category:
No. 5 pick: Armand Membou (+1100)
No. 7 pick: Jalon Walker (+900)
No. 8 pick: Armand Membou (+3000)
No. 8 pick: Will Campbell (+2500)
No. 10 pick: Will Johnson (+1500)
Head-to-head prop bets
Jihaad Campbell (+135) to be selected before Grey Zabel (-170)
We're simply following the numbers here. Based on the intel the Predictor has gathered, it gives a high chance that Campbell will be selected somewhere between 10-20 in the draft, with his median selection point coming at pick No. 15. Zabel's curve is significantly different; while still likely a first-round pick, the model gives him only a 7% chance to go in the top 20 and with a median selection point of pick 30. Ultimately the model is very confident in Campbell going first, and we're getting +135 to pick him, too.
Position and conference prop bets
Total defensive linemen / edges drafted in the first round: Under 8.5 (+220)
Let's assume the following players are locks, or close to locks, for Day 1: Abdul Carter, Mykel Williams, Mike Green, Shemar Stewart, Graham and Derrick Harmon. That puts us at six, with Donovan Ezeiruaku, Walter Nolen and Kenneth Grant all pretty strong possibilities to go in the first round, and James Pearce Jr. having an outside chance. As long as Pearce misses, we need just one of the players in the "maybe" group to miss as well. I'd probably bet on each of them individually to be first-round picks, but this is where simulating the draft -- which is how we price these multi-conditionals -- comes in handy. It handles the interaction between the picks and the prospects, and ultimately provides a probability that fewer than 9 defensive lineman or edges are selected. In this case, it believes there's a 69% chance the under hits, even though we're at +220.
Note for this prop: Jalon Walker is presumed to be a linebacker, but if NFL.com classifies him as an edge or defensive lineman, he would count as such, which presents a small risk we aren't factoring in.
Other bets in this category:
Running backs drafted in the first round: Under 2.5 (-240)
Offensive players drafted in the first round: Over 15.5 (-115)
SEC players drafted in the first round: Under 14.5 (+150)
Second running back taken: Omarion Hampton (-260)
Over/Unders
Ashton Jeanty over 6.5 (+250) For the purposes of draft-slot over/unders at ESPN BET, an "under" means earlier and "over" means later than the line.
The Predictor is very confident that Jeanty will go in the top 10, but it would believe that setting the line at 6.5 with serious plus-money to the over is going too far. The Predictor gives Jeanty a 57% chance to be available at pick No. 7, fading the possibility that he goes to the Jaguars at No. 5 or Raiders at No. 6.
I can't help but to be on the same page as the Predictor here. There's a reason running backs rarely go this high in the draft: The surplus value gained if they hit is so much lower than at other positions (like tackle or edge rusher) that are so much harder to find in free agency. I think that positional value element keeps Jeanty as roughly a coin flip to hit the over here, and that's well worth betting considering the price.
Others in this category:
Tyler Warren over 9.5 (-250)
Kelvin Banks Jr. over 13.5 (+260)
Mykel Williams over 15.5 (+360)
Mike Green under 17.5 (+210)
Colston Loveland over 18.5 (+360)
Malaki Starks Over 23.5 (-175)
First-round selection
Luther Burden III to be selected in the first round (+230)
There's no guarantee here, but the Predictor prices Burden in the first round at +108, making this a value if our numbers are correct. ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller tweeted Tuesday that Burden's range is 20-35, and that gives me confidence for teams like the Broncos (20), Texans (25) and Lions (28).
Other bet in this category:
Azareye'h Thomas to be selected in the first round (+850)