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          Betting tips for Chiefs-Raiders: Will Kansas City finally cover?

          Travis Kelce has seen an increase in targets over the past three games and faces a Raiders team vulnerable against tight ends. Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images
          • ESPN
          Nov 29, 2024, 09:00 AM ET

          With Thanksgiving finished, Black Friday brings another showdown of NFL action featuring the Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, 5-6 ATS) hosting their AFC West rival, the Las Vegas Raiders (2-9, 4-7 ATS) from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

          Last year, the Raiders were able to pull off an upset victory over the defending Super Bowl champs on Christmas. This year, the Chiefs enter Friday's holiday matchup as 12.5-point favorites with a total of 42.5 points.

          In the last game between the Chiefs and Raiders on Oct. 27, Kansas City narrowly escaped Las Vegas and the Raiders were able to cover the 8.5-point spread in a 27-20 loss. Since then, the Chiefs have lost only one game, a 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 11.

          Here is everything you need to know to bet Chiefs-Raiders and Anita Marks' best bets for the game.

          Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

          Game lines

          Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)
          Moneyline: Chiefs (-900), Raiders (+550)
          Over/under: 42.5 points (over -110/under -110)

          First-half spread: Chiefs -7.5 (Even), Raiders +7.5 (-120)
          First-half moneyline: Chiefs (-450), Raiders (+320)
          Chiefs total points: 27.5 (over -105/under -125)
          Raiders total points: 13.5 (over -125/under -105)

          The props

          Passing

          Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (over -135/under +105)
          Mahomes total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -125/under -105)
          Aidan O'Connell total passing yards: 249.5 (over +115/under -145)
          O'Connell total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -120/under -110)

          Receiving

          Brock Bowers total receiving yards: 59.5 (over -130/under even)
          Jakobi Meyers total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -135/under +105)
          Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 59.5 (over +110/under -140)
          Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 34.5 (over -130/under even)
          DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 39.5 (over even/under -130)
          Tre Tucker total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -130/under even)
          Noah Gray total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -120/under -110)

          Anita Marks' picks

          Raiders +12.5 vs. Chiefs

          KC is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more this season. They win but don't cover and almost lost to the Carolina Panthers last week. All of their wins are by a very close margin and Kansas City's 14th ranked offense has not lit up the scoreboard. This week the Chiefs face a Raiders team that would love nothing more than to play spoiler on Black Friday. Aidan O'Connell is expected to start, and the Raiders are 6-3 ATS over their past nine games as a double-digit underdog.

          Travis Kelce anytime TD (+115)

          Kelce is starting to get more action as of late with 12, 16 and 10 targets in his past three home games. The Raiders have allowed five touchdown passes to tight ends over their past three games.

          Betting trends

          Courtesy ESPN Research

          • The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, tied for their longest ATS losing streak in the Andy Reid era. Their last longer ATS losing streak was in 2008-09 (6 straight).

          • The Chiefs are 25-40 ATS as at least 7-point favorites under Andy Reid, including 19-29 ATS with Patrick Mahomes.

          • The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS as double-digit road favorites under Andy Reid (0-9 ATS since 1971).

          • The Chiefs have the worst ATS record (4-7) out of any team to win 10 of its first 11 games in the Super Bowl era (62 teams)

          • Aidan O'Connell is 10-2 ATS in his career, the best mark of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 starts. O'Connell looks to be the 5th player in the Super Bowl era to cover his first six career road starts, joining Doug Williams (8), Dan Orlovsky (7), Patrick Mahomes (6) and Vince Ferragamo (6).

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