The College Football Playoff field is still taking shape and this weekend will be huge in determining who's in and who's out. The biggest treat on Saturday is a matchup of top-five teams, as the undefeated No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) visit the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) in a Big Ten battle.
The Hoosiers can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win, while the favored Buckeyes (-13.5) need to win to stay alive in the race for Indianapolis. Indiana is an underdog for the first time this season and puts its undefeated road ATS record on the line as Ohio State looks to extend its 31-game unbeaten streak against the Hoosiers.
This will be the fourth time an AP top-five team is a double-digit underdog in a regular-season game over the past 10 seasons (previous teams are 1-2 ATS) and 15th time over that span when including postseason games (underdogs are 4-10 ATS).
As things stand heading into the weekend, Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship at 3-1 (-8000 to make the CFP). Despite its undefeated mark, Indiana is the ninth choice at 25-1 (-350 to make the CFP).
Kickoff from Columbus, Ohio, is at noon ET Saturday on Fox.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Ohio State -13.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -550, Indiana +380
Over/under: 51.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
First-half spread: Ohio State -7.5 (+102), Indiana +7.5 (-125)
First-half moneyline: Ohio State -420, Indiana +290
First-half total points: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Maldonado's pick: Indiana +13.5
Despite Indiana's 10-0 record and dominant performances, the betting line moving from +11.5 to +13.5 in Ohio State's favor reflects a startling level of disrespect for the Hoosiers, suggesting that oddsmakers and bettors remain skeptical of their ability to compete with the perennial powerhouse Buckeyes.
Indiana's best chance to cover the double-digit spread lies in exploiting quarterback Will Howard's limitations. While the Hoosiers' offense will play a role, their defense holds the key to keeping this game competitive.
Howard struggles to outrun edge rushers, presenting an opportunity for Indiana's defense, particularly Mikail Kamara. The Hoosiers' standout defensive end leads the Big Ten with 9.5 sacks and can be a gamechanger if able to generate pressure and force Howard into rushed decisions. Often faltering when faced with an aggressive pass rush, Howard's vulnerability has led to a troubling number of turnovers, most notably seven fumbles in the 2024 season alone, tied for the fifth-most among quarterbacks.
Howard's struggles extend beyond ball security to accuracy. When forced out of the pocket, Howard's accuracy diminishes significantly, with his struggles maintaining downfield vision leading to inaccurate passes, ranging from underthrows to wild overthrows. On passes of 10+ yards, Howard is completing only 59% outside the numbers and 68% between the numbers, suggesting limitations in arm strength or timing on longer throws to the sidelines.
To exploit these weaknesses, Indiana's defense might design blitz packages pushing Howard to his non-dominant side, utilize edge rushers to contain him while applying interior pressure. Linebacker Aiden Fisher can be used as a spy to track Howard and focus on tighter coverage in the middle of the field while challenging the Buckeyes' QB to rely more on less efficient outside throws.
While an outright victory might be unlikely, Indiana's focus on exploiting Howard's weaknesses gives the Hoosiers a solid chance to keep the game within the spread. The key lies in consistent execution of their pressure packages and capitalizing on forced mistakes.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Indiana is 8-2 ATS, tied with Arizona State and Colorado for best record among Power 4 teams.
The Hoosiers are one of eight teams undefeated ATS on the road; their +19.8 cover margin per road game is third-best in FBS.
This is Indiana's first game as underdog.
Indiana is 3-9 ATS against ranked teams since 2021, third-worst in FBS over that span (minimum 10 games).
Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in conference play, tied for the second-worst in FBS (only Florida State is worse).
The Buckeyes are 5-10 ATS against top-10 teams over the past five seasons, third-worst in FBS (min. 10 games).
Ohio State has a 31-game unbeaten streak vs. Indiana since 1989 (30-0-1) and is 17-12-2 ATS over that span.
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