In a season where unpredictability has become the norm, Week 7 of the 2024 college football season presents a tantalizing tetrad of underdog opportunities. As the leaves turn and conference races heat up, four matchups stand out as potential upset specials.
These games feature underdogs with the bite to match their bark, each poised to defy the odds and further muddle the college football landscape. From Sun Belt showdowns to a Big Ten clash, these tilts offer a compelling narrative of resilience, tactical acumen and the ever-present potential for David to topple Goliath. As we dive into the analysis, it becomes clear that in college football, the label of "underdog" is often just that -- a label, waiting to be torn off by teams hungry to prove their mettle on the national stage.
Overall: 16-13-2
Best bets: 4-2
All lines current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.
Old Dominion Monarchs (ML Even) at Georgia State Panthers
Old Dominion has faced a gauntlet of opponents through the first half of the season. With the 36th-toughest schedule in the nation, the Monarchs have faced several difficult matchups, including a strong South Carolina Gamecocks defense and a 4-1 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers team. Despite the difficult schedule and 1-4 record, three of Old Dominion's losses have been by eight points or fewer.
Facing Georgia State as a 1.5-point underdog should be a cake walk. The Panthers' defense ranks 113th in defensive success rate and 103rd in EPA per rush. Those weaknesses align well with Old Dominion's offensive strengths, particularly its run game featuring Aaron Young and Bryce Duke. The Panthers' poor rush defense could lead to difficulties getting off the field on third downs, an area where they already struggle (116th in third-down conversions allowed).
Georgia State will be the least-challenging defense Old Dominion has faced this season. Though the metrics might not appear impressive for the Monarchs, their strength of schedule has prepared them well for this matchup. I'm backing the underdog to win outright on the money line.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +10 at James Madison Dukes
In a Sun Belt showdown between two 4-1 teams, I'm backing the Chanticleers as 10-point underdogs despite their unfavorable history in this matchup. Coastal Carolina has been outscored by James Madison 103-21 over the past two years, which probably explains the large spread between these competitive teams.
This pick is as much of a fade on James Madison as it is backing Coastal. The Dukes are coming off a loss to UL Monroe. Despite outgaining ULM 399-257 in total offense, the Dukes reached the end zone only twice and struggled on fourth downs, converting only 1 of 5 attempts. More concerning is James Madison quarterback Alonza Barnett III's performance under pressure; he went 0-for-9 passing when pressured, compared to 20-for-38 with a clean pocket. Barnett is now 3-for-19 passing on the season when under pressure. Notably, Monroe's pass rush ranks 109th in the nation by PFF. The Chanticleers have more pressures, sacks and quarterback hits than ULM this season, suggesting they could exploit this weakness.
Offensively, Coastal Carolina has shown the ability to put up points. The Chanticleers have averaged 38 points this season with a balanced attack -- 241 passing yards and 197 rushing yards per game. Coastal Carolina could challenge James Madison's defense, as the Chanticleers have been highly efficient inside the red zone, ranking 27th in touchdowns scored. This efficiency could help them maximize scoring opportunities in Week 7 and keep pace with James Madison.
Though the Dukes are favored, the Chanticleers have the potential to keep the game within the 10-point spread, especially if they can leverage their offensive strengths and apply quarterback pressure.
Colorado Buffaloes +4.5 vs. 18. Kansas State Wildcats
Colorado +5.5 was my first bet of the week, but with the line now at +4.5, it's no longer my favorite play. Nonetheless, Colorado's offensive firepower with Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy contender Travis Hunter, along with the team's defensive playmaking ability, remain compelling factors.
An under-the-radar strength that could propel Colorado past Kansas State is its third-down efficiency on both sides of the ball. The Buffaloes convert 44.62% of their third downs on offense and hold opponents to just 34.67%. In contrast, the Wildcats convert 38.7% and allow a 35.7% conversion rate.
This third-down efficiency disparity, often overlooked in headline stats, could be crucial in Colorado's ability to dictate the game's tempo and potentially upset Kansas State. It demonstrates both offensive execution and defensive strength in critical situations, potentially becoming the deciding factor in what promises to be a closely contested matchup.
Week 7 best bet: Washington Huskies (+3, +120 ML) at Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 4-1 to the over this season, partly due to an improved offense but also because of a regressed defense. In 2023, Iowa's defense was elite, ranking first in fewest yards allowed per play at 3.9. Midway through 2024, Iowa has dropped to 59th, giving up 5.5 yards per play and struggling to prevent explosive plays.
In only four FBS games, Iowa has already given up more 50-plus-yard plays (four) than in all 14 games of the 2023 season (two), with three coming against nonconference opponents Iowa State and Troy. That exceeds the total from Iowa's 2021, 2022 and 2023 regular-season nonconference slates combined.
Iowa safety Quinn Schulte attributed these big plays to "poor communication in the back end and poor technique and fundamentals." But it is clear the loss of All-American defensive back Cooper DeJean, a 2024 second-round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles, has also affected its performance.
Washington will look to exploit Iowa's defensive regression, as the Huskies rank fifth in FBS with 111 plays of 10 yards or longer through six games, according to ESPN Research. Washington also has 32 plays of 20 yards or longer, tied for 17th in FBS. Their offense has remained potent despite the 2023 season overhaul.
Fifth-year quarterback Will Rogers leads Washington's offense with his accuracy on short-to-intermediate passes (71.65%) and a quick release. Under Jedd Fisch's system, Rogers has thrown for 1,625 yards and 12 touchdowns. Wide receiver Denzel Boston leads the Big Ten and is second in FBS with eight touchdown receptions.
The Huskies also boast an explosive running game led by Jonah Coleman. At 5-foot-9 and 229 pounds, Coleman is difficult to tackle. He leads FBS with 24 rushes of 10-plus yards, four more than early Heisman Trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty.
Though Iowa is known for its strong defense and home-field advantage, the Huskies' balanced and explosive offense gives them a chance to overcome the Hawkeyes. I recommend taking both the points and money line, as this appears to be a "wrong team favored" scenario.