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          Betting tips for 'Monday Night Football': Buccaneers vs. Chiefs

          Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes have been a part of some exciting, high-scoring games dating back to their college days. AP Photo/Chris O'Meara
          • ESPN
          Nov 4, 2024, 09:30 AM ET

          The final game of Week 9 pits Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City, Missouri, on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). The Chiefs (7-0) sit atop the AFC standings and are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET (+400). Despite Mahomes' shaky play this season, the Chiefs offense has remained a strong suit, leaning on a Kareem Hunt-led rushing attack and a physical defense.

          Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-4) look to bounce back after losing back-to-back games in Weeks 7 and 8 to the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons respectively. Tampa Bay enters the matchup with some key players out with injury including Mayfield's top two receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. As such, the Chiefs opened as 8.5-point favorites early last week as the line has since moved up a half a point to Chiefs -9. The total for the matchup has remained the same at 45.5 points.

          Here is everything you need to know to bet on Buccaneers-Chiefs and Seth Walder's favorite bets for the game.

          Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

          Game lines

          Spread: Chiefs -9
          Money line: Chiefs (-450), Buccaneers (+340)
          Over/Under: 45.5

          First-half spread: Chiefs -5.5 (-110), Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
          First-half moneyline: Chiefs (-320), Buccaneers (+240)
          Buccaneers total points: 26.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
          Chiefs total points: 20.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

          Seth Walder's pick

          Nick Bolton under 8.5 tackles + assists (-118)

          Bolton has a 14% tackle rate -- meaning he records a combined tackle on 14% of his defensive plays -- which is almost exactly average for an off-ball linebacker. Also like most linebackers, Bolton has a much higher tackle rate on opponent designed runs (20%) than opponent dropbacks (11%). And in this case, Bolton should expect to see fewer opponent runs: the Chiefs are 9-point favorites, which means the Bucs will likely be playing from behind and therefore passing frequently. In addition, the Bucs are pass-heavy anyway: Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats. My model forecasts 7.5 tackles + assists for Bolton.

          The props

          Passing

          Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
          Mahomes total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
          Baker Mayfield total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -155/Under +120)
          Mayfield total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +135/Under -170)

          Rushing

          Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
          Bucky Irving total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over Even/Under -130)
          Rachaad White total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
          Mahomes total rushing yards: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
          Mayfield total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

          Receiving

          Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -130/Under Even)
          Cade Otton total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -130/Under Even)
          Jalen McMillan total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
          DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
          Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
          Noah Gray total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -105/Under -120)
          Rachaad White total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
          Justin Watson total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
          Bucky Irving total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over +115/Under -145)

          Betting trends

          Courtesy ESPN Research

          • The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including 8-2 ATS as road underdogs.

          • Five straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total.

          • Patrick Mahomes is 22-28 ATS in his career when laying at least seven points (0-2 ATS this season). Unders are 29-19-2 in Mahomes starts at home, including 14-6 over the past three seasons.

          • Baker Mayfield is 5-10 ATS in prime-time games. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in prime-time games this season.

          • Underdogs of at least six points are 21-12 ATS this season. Underdogs of at least seven points are 14-6 ATS. Underdogs of 7-9 points are 14-1 ATS this season.

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