The 2025 men's NCAA tournament tips off Thursday and with it comes the excitement of the round of 64 -- one of the most thrilling betting opportunities in all of sports.
Whether you're eyeing point spreads, moneylines or over/unders, certain matchups stand out as prime betting opportunities.
Here is Greg Peterson to factor in team trends, injuries, momentum and more to identify the smartest wagers to make as March Madness gets underway.
Odds are accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Friday's Games
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Akron
Bet: Akron +13.5
While Arizona's Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love are big-name guards, both have been unable to knock down outside shots, combining to shoot just 31.6% from 3-point range. Akron has the athletes to keep up with Arizona's fast pace, though there isn't a true star player on the team. The Zips run a nine-man rotation who all average at least 6.3 points per game on a team that averaged 84 PPG, completely changing their formerly slow and controlled identity from when they lost to Creighton in the 2024 NCAA tournament. This new style gives the Zips a better chance to keep things close in this one.
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Lipscomb
Bet: Lipscomb +14.5
Iowa State will be without starting guard Keshon Gilbert (groin) for this game and the entirety of the NCAA tournament. Gilbert, who averaged 13.4 points and a team-high 4.1 assists per game, was also a big part of one of the nation's best defenses in generating turnovers. Now the Cyclones face a Lipscomb team that does not beat itself, committing only 9.5 turnovers per game, and has one of the best mid-major players in the nation in Jacob Ognacevic. Ognacevic missed the entire 2023-24 season due to injury, and the 6-foot-8 forward has made up for lost time, making 40.2% of his 3-point shots with 20.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He is out to give Iowa State an unexpected first-round test.
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Robert Morris
Bet: Robert Morris +22.5
Alabama plays at the fastest pace in all of college basketball and lives and dies by the 3-point shot, with Illinois being the only NCAA tournament team that attempts more per game. The Crimson Tide have allowed at least 79 points in nine of their last 11 games, and play a Robert Morris team that has four of its top six scorers shooting at least 38.4% from 3-point range, including 6-foot-9 Alvaro Folgueiras, who had 14.1 points, 9.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game to go 42.3% shooting from 3-point range. Alabama has the propensity to go cold from long distance, giving Robert Morris a chance to make things interesting.
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Troy
Bet: Kentucky -10.5
While Kentucky is dealing with an injury to Jaxson Robinson, who averages 13 points per game, the team still has five other players who average more than 10 points per game, including the 16.2 points per game of Ortega Owen. Troy will be playing its fourth game this season against a power conference team, having already lost to Oregon, Arkansas and Houston by at least 16 points in all three matchups. In addition, their 27.3% shooting on the road from 3-point range ranks among the lowest of all NCAA tournament teams. Add in Troy's consistent turnover issues, and this game has blowout potential.
No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10 New Mexico
Bet: New Mexico +3.5
Marquette enters the NCAA tournament in a funk, losing three of its last four games, and has a negative rebound differential this season. That disadvantage on the glass becomes more glaring as it faces New Mexico senior center Nelly Junior Joseph, whose 11.2 rebounds per game ranks third in the country among qualifying players. No player on Marquette averages more than 5.5 rebounds per game, putting the Golden Eagles at a significant disadvantage in this key area.
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Liberty
Bet: Liberty +6.5
Oregon has received great versatility from 7-footer Nate Bittle, who shot 39.7% from 3-point range in Big Ten Conference play and headlines an Oregon team that has no true strengths or weaknesses. As for Liberty, this team is looking to dominate along the 3-point arc with the third-lowest opponent 3-point shooting percentage in the nation at 28%. The Flames are also the only team in the nation that shot over 50% from the floor in games played away from home, headlined by Colin and Taelon Porter, who both shot over 44% from 3-point range. With a 7-1 record in neutral court games this season, Liberty will feel right at home against Oregon.
Thursday's Bets and results (1-3)
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Utah State
Bet: Utah State +5.5 (Lost)
UCLA coach Mick Cronin has complained about UCLA's travel schedule, likely due to the team going 2-7 in games played in the Eastern or Central time zones. Well, this one is being played in Lexington, Kentucky (Eastern time). Utah State, despite an offseason coaching change, maintained much of its guard play that won a game in last year's NCAA tournament, as Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez combined for 31.7 points and 6.4 assists per game. Utah State has the chance to spring the upset with UCLA's inconsistent play away from home.
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 High Point
Bet: High Point +8.5 (Lost)
With the departure of Zach Edey, Purdue has not been the same time in the post and have seen their 2-point shooting defense slip all the way to 350th among the 364 Division I teams. High Point should exploit that with an offense that is third in field goal shooting percentage away from home. Additionally, sophomore forward Juslin Bodo Bodo's 8.4 rebounds per game gives the team plenty of second chances to score. Bodo Bodo has won the Big South Defensive Player of the Year Award in two straight seasons and gives High Point both the edge on the glass and a chance to pull a first-round stunner.
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 VCU
Bet: BYU -2.5 (Cashed)
BYU has a bit of a built-in edge with the game being played in Denver, as it is used to the elevation from playing in Provo, Utah. Meanwhile, VCU has experienced close to no elevation changes in any of its games. BYU's 3-point shooting has traveled well, ranking 16th in 3-point shooting away from home at 37.7% with Richie Saunders being a big reason for it. The junior forward averages a team-best 16 PPG and was voted the Big 12's Most Improved Player this season. VCU is a trendy pick, but BYU is in its element with this matchup.
No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Georgia
Under 150.5 (Lost)
While most think of Gonzaga for its high-flying offense and point guard Ryan Nembhard leading the country in assists, the Bulldogs have a sneaky defense that ranks 17th among the 364 Division I teams in points allowed on a per possession. These are also two of the worst shooting 3-point shooting teams away from home in the tournament; Georgia is 347th at 28.7%, while Gonzaga makes only 31.1% of its 3s away from home. While many are expecting points, these teams have shown that they don't deliver offensive fireworks on the road.