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College Football Playoff betting guide: Do underdogs Penn State have an edge against Notre Dame?

Drew Allar and the Penn State Nittany Lions bring a balanced offensive attack to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Capital One Orange Bowl. AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

The semifinal round of the 2025 College Football Playoff begins with a showdown from the Sunshine State as Notre Dame takes on Penn State in the Capital One Orange Bowl.

Both teams advanced to penultimate round of the playoff with dominant wins. Notre Dame took care of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl behind a big game from quarterback Riley Leonard. Meanwhile Drew Allar and Tyler Warren showcased a special connection and had two touchdowns to lift Penn State over the Boise State Broncos last Friday.

Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Penn State and the line his since increased to -2.5. The total opened at 44.5 points and has stayed the same.

All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.


College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

7-seed Notre Dame vs. 6-seed Penn State
Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Spread: Notre Dame (-2.5)
Moneyline: Notre Dame (-135), Penn State (+115)
Over/under: 45.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First-half spread: Notre Dame -0.5 (Even), Penn State +0.5 (-120)
First-half moneyline: Notre Dame (-125), Penn State (-105)
First-half total points: 21.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Notre Dame total points: 23.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Penn State total points: 21.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Notre Dame by 1.5 (54.3% chance to win)