The semifinal round of the 2025 College Football Playoff begins with a showdown from the Sunshine State as Notre Dame takes on Penn State in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
Both teams advanced to penultimate round of the playoff with dominant wins. Notre Dame took care of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl behind a big game from quarterback Riley Leonard. Meanwhile Drew Allar and Tyler Warren showcased a special connection and had two touchdowns to lift Penn State over the Boise State Broncos last Friday.
Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Penn State and the line his since increased to -2.5. The total opened at 44.5 points and has stayed the same.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
7-seed Notre Dame vs. 6-seed Penn State
Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Spread: Notre Dame (-2.5)
Moneyline: Notre Dame (-135), Penn State (+115)
Over/under: 45.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First-half spread: Notre Dame -0.5 (Even), Penn State +0.5 (-120)
First-half moneyline: Notre Dame (-125), Penn State (-105)
First-half total points: 21.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Notre Dame total points: 23.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Penn State total points: 21.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Notre Dame by 1.5 (54.3% chance to win)
Considering Notre Dame's dominance this season, this matchup promises to be more sizzle than fizzle.
Notre Dame's offense sputtered in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, with the running game reduced to a whisper. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combined for just 56 yards on 16 carries, leaving quarterback Riley Leonard to shoulder the entire offensive load. While Leonard's dual-threat ability kept the Irish afloat, their biggest plays -- a short-field turnover and a kickoff return touchdown -- felt more like fortunate breaks than reliable production.
Penn State, on the other hand, dominated Boise State by silencing Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, holding him to a season-low 104 rushing yards, with just 39 in the first half. Their dominance extends beyond defense. Drew Allar, often labeled as a conservative passer, dealt two touchdowns to Tyler Warren and Penn State broke open the game late after Nick Singleton's electrifying 58-yard touchdown run.
Notre Dame's defensive issues only raise the stakes for Penn State. The absence of Rylie Mills, their star defender and captain, exposes significant vulnerabilities. Without Mills, Notre Dame's interior run defense is not only weaker but also more susceptible to being exploited. Mills' absence limits their ability to pressure the quarterback and leaves a leadership void that could spell trouble against a Penn State offensive line that has excelled in creating opportunities for Drew Allar and Nick Singleton. Without Mills anchoring the middle, a once-reliable run defense faces significant cracks, as evidenced by Georgia's ability to establish their ground game in the quarterfinals. This opened up opportunities in the passing game -- a blueprint Penn State's balanced and explosive offense could easily follow.
The quarterback battle offers contrasting styles. Leonard's athleticism and mobility are undeniable, but his inconsistency in deep passes and struggles under pressure remain liabilities. Allar, with his NFL-ready arm and calm decision-making, has evolved into Penn State's ace. His ability to exploit Notre Dame's defensive gaps, particularly with playmakers like Warren and Singleton, could be the tipping point.
With both teams having ample time to prepare, Penn State's balanced approach shines brighter. Their defense, ranked 18th in success rate, rivals Georgia's in physicality, while their offense adds a level of firepower Notre Dame can't match. The Irish might need some magic to keep pace, but magic doesn't stand a chance against a team playing with house money.
Penn State looks ready to call Notre Dame's bluff. Their ability to neutralize stars like Jeanty and execute on both sides of the ball highlights a team built for high-stakes moments. If their defense can replicate that success by shutting down Notre Dame's ground game and containing Leonard's mobility, even Marcus Freeman's best playcalling might fall short.
With Notre Dame struggling to generate consistent offense against such a disciplined and physical team, the scales tip toward the Nittany Lions. In this showdown, Penn State isn't just in the game -- they're holding the winning hand.
Pick: Penn State (+2)