The first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff is here, and the matchups are brimming with betting value. With powerhouse programs and underdog contenders squaring off, this introduction into the 12-team format could bring drama from start to finish.
On Saturday, SMU faces Penn State in a David-and-Goliath battle where speed meets strength. Clemson looks to defy the odds against Texas, a program riding high on a mostly dominant season, and Ohio State seeks redemption against Tennessee after falling short in its rivalry showdown with Michigan.
As the stakes rise, each game presents unique opportunities to evaluate talent, analyze matchups and make sharp predictions. Let's dive into the action and uncover where the value lies in these marquee CFP showdowns.
While I typically love betting totals, the first round of the playoffs has me leaning toward spreads instead, as predicting an over or under in these high-stakes matchups feels like it comes with more variance.
Here are all the odds and lines for the College Football Playoff matchups ahead of the first round.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
11-seed SMU at 6-seed Penn State (-8.5, 53.5)
Saturday, Noon ET on TNT/Max
SMU has one of the most disruptive defensive fronts in the nation, ranked 18th in PFF's pass-rush grade and tied for fourth nationally with 40 sacks. This unit has excelled at applying pressure, a key factor against Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, who has struggled under duress. Against other top-tier defenses in Ohio State and Oregon, Allar averaged just 186 passing yards, totaling three touchdowns and three interceptions.
SMU's defense is not just about the pass rush. The unit is a brick wall against the run, ranking seventh in rushing defense and 15th in overall defensive success. The Mustangs are built to limit Penn State's star running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Forcing Penn State into third-and-long situations (SMU is 17th nationally in third-down conversions allowed) will allow the Mustangs' pass rush to shine, creating opportunities to disrupt Allar's rhythm and make Penn State's offense one-dimensional.
The Nittany Lions' offensive struggles are compounded by questionable play-calling from offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and keep in mind that head coach James Franklin is 3-19 against top-10 opponents. While tight end Tyler Warren has emerged as a reliable weapon, averaging seven receptions per game, Penn State's tendency to underutilize his versatility limits its ability to generate big plays. This conservative approach could keep the game within reach for the Mustangs.
SMU is a challenging underdog with the tools to disrupt Penn State's offense and keep the game competitive. With Franklin's questionable track record in big games, SMU plus the points offers value in a matchup where defense and coaching could swing the outcome.
Pick: SMU +8.5
Penn State coach James Franklin details his issue with the timing of the transfer portal after backup quarterback Beau Pribula's decision to transfer.
12-seed Clemson at 5-seed Texas (-12, 51.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on TNT/Max
Disrespect a team with championship pedigree at your own risk. Clemson catching more than a touchdown? That's a line worth biting into -- and maybe even feasting on.
Cade Klubnik is a weapon at quarterback. He has racked up the 11th-most passing yards in the nation while throwing just five interceptions, showcasing his ability to move the ball efficiently and protect it under pressure. But what really sets Klubnik apart is his mobility. He rushed for 62 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries against South Carolina's relentless pass rush. Klubnik's quick decision-making and ability to escape pressure will be crucial against Texas' formidable defensive front.
Meanwhile, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has looked shaky of late. He has taken seven sacks and thrown three interceptions over his past two games, exposing his vulnerability to pressure. Ewers lacks the mobility to evade defenders, a glaring weakness that Clemson's aggressive defense can capitalize on. Klubnik's ability to extend plays and deliver accurate throws under duress gives Clemson a clear edge in critical moments.
Big plays? Clemson has them. Klubnik carved up South Carolina with throws of 28, 36 and 40 yards in the first half alone, showcasing his ability to stretch the field and keep defenses honest. That explosiveness will test a Texas secondary that hasn't faced an offense as polished as Clemson (ranked 11th by PFF).
Clemson thrives in the spotlight, and a double-digit spread against a team with this level of talent and experience is flat-out disrespectful. The Tigers have the tools to cover this number.
Pick: Clemson +12
9-seed Tennessee at 8-seed Ohio State (-7, 46.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on ABC,/ESPN
Ohio State, led by quarterback Will Howard, has one of the nation's most efficient passing games, ranking seventh in passing touchdowns and second in the Big Ten with nine yards per attempt. Howard, who set a school record with a 74% completion rate, has the poise and precision to exploit Tennessee's secondary.
The Buckeyes' receiving corps adds another layer of difficulty for Tennessee. With 934 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, freshman WR Jeremiah Smith has emerged as a dynamic playmaker and is already part of the way-too-early 2025 Heisman conversation. Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate provide additional big-play threats. The Buckeyes' receiver depth can overwhelm a Volunteers defense that was torched by Georgia for 453 total yards and failed to register a single sack and didn't force a turnover. If Tennessee struggled against a Georgia offense that has been inconsistent all season, containing Ohio State's elite passing attack will be an even greater challenge.
Plus, experience could really come into play. Tennessee freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava faces a daunting task against Ohio State's defense. Iamaleava's inexperience, combined with Ohio State's No. 1 overall defense and relentless pass rush led by JT Tuimoloau, could spell trouble for the Volunteers. Iamaleava has shown issues with decisiveness and accuracy, particularly under pressure, which Ohio State's NFL-caliber secondary, featuring Davison Igbinosun and Jordan Hancock, is poised to exploit. This a defensive unit has been elite in limiting scores, leading the nation in touchdowns allowed.
After a tough loss to Michigan, Ohio State is primed for a bounce-back performance. Howard's ability to respond to adversity, coupled with Tennessee's defensive shortcomings and Iamaleava's inexperience, creates a perfect setup for the Buckeyes to dominate. Expect Ohio State to reassert its offensive dominance and cover the spread.
Pick: Ohio State -7
10-seed Indiana at 7-seed Notre Dame (-7, 51.5)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN
Indiana's offense sparkled at times this season, but when tested against elite defenses, it's a different story. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been exposed under pressure, as seen in two critical matchups against Ohio State and Michigan. He was unable to establish a rhythm in the passing game against the Buckeyes, scraping together a 44% completion rate. The Michigan game was even worse, as Indiana mustered just 18 total yards in the second half with Rourke looking completely overwhelmed.
Now, the Hoosiers face a Notre Dame team armed with the seventh-best defense in the nation. The Irish allow a stingy 151 passing yards per game, second-best in the nation. The Fighting Irish's defensive front is relentless, and their secondary thrives on mistakes. Notre Dame forced four interceptions against stronger passing teams like USC, Navy and Louisville, a warning sign for Rourke, whose medium-to-deep passing tendencies could play right into the Fighting Irish's hands. Combine that with Rourke's struggles against top-tier defenses (nine sacks, two touchdowns, one interception and a 52% completion rate) and this has all the makings of another nightmare outing.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame's offense has progressed throughout the year. The Fighting Irish have become a well-oiled machine under offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, averaging 40 points per game. Quarterback Riley Leonard's dual-threat capabilities and a ground attack averaging an incredible 6.3 yards per carry (second-best in the nation) give the Irish unmatched versatility. Whether it's pounding the rock or stretching the field, the Irish have the tools to exploit any vulnerability in Indiana's defense.
This game sets up perfectly for Notre Dame to assert its dominance. The defense can smother Indiana's offense, while a balanced, explosive attack keeps the Hoosiers on their heels. The spread is manageable. The Irish aren't just covering this game, they're controlling it.
Pick: Notre Dame -7.5. Line closed at Notre Dame 6.5. Notre Dame won 27-17.