NFL betting: Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 11

We're betting to win.

And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

2. A less-efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense) and alternate lines. Less attention means less-efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or another. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

Defensive player props

Patrick Queen (PIT) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-125)

I'm well under here, forecasting a mean of 7.1 tackles + assists for Queen against his former team, the Ravens. It seems like straightforward reasoning from the model as I've previously written how with all else being equal, the model will lean under on an average off-ball linebacker with an 8.5-tackle line. However all else isn't equal here, as Queen's tackle numbers are poor, with a 15% tackle rate against the run and 12% overall, both of which are below average for the position.

Baltimore is favored, but only by three points and they are middle of the pack in terms of pass rate over expectation. I don't see anything that should move us off the under.

Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL) under 0.5 sacks (-210)

If there is one player my sack model has loved to fade this year, it is Madubuike. We were spared last week from betting against him when he recorded three sacks (!) against the Bengals because odds weren't up for him at the time, but his performance and ensuing odds bump probably only increased the chances the model would bet against him in Week 11.

Until last week Madubuike had just two sacks on the season and he has not delivered in pass rush win rate where his 7% at defensive tackle ranks 33rd out of 47 qualifiers at the position. Plus, he is fighting against the natural defensive tackle low sack base rates. I make the fair price -301.

See also:

• Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT) under 6.5 tackles + assists (-120)

• Brandon Stephens (BAL) under 4.5 tackles + assists (-125)

• Tuli Tuipulotu (LAC) under 0.5 sacks (-105) (added 11/15)

• Devonte Wyatt (GB) under 0.5 sacks (-210) (added 11/15)

• Jeffery Simmons (TEN) under 0.5 sacks (-165) (added 11/15)

Running back receptions

Kareem Hunt (KC) over 2.5 receptions (+100)

I'm changing things up. Every week I've written here about how high man coverage teams and high blitz teams allow fewer receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs. There's one problem: this year the two teams that we would target with that strategy (the Broncos and Vikings) are both allowing plenty of receptions to opponent running backs. Let's try flipping it around and looking at something else.

Bills cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford rank fifth- and eighth-lowest in target rate allowed among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The knock-on effect there is that they allow more running back targets than anyone (26% of opponent targets go to running backs). Let's roll with Hunt, off a 10-target (!) game when we were fading him, to at least catch the ball three times.

Is this a smart pivot or me just flailing at my previous angle failing to pan out? Tune in to find out!

Alternate Receiving Yards

Xavier Worthy (KC) 40-plus receiving yards (+210)

This slightly unnerves me because of what I wrote about above Benford and Douglas deterring targets above. But this space is about following my betting models' outputs, and my alternate receiving yards model likes no pick better than this one. Here's what gives me confidence: we're betting alts for a reason here, and the model likes this alt the best, and for a reason. Worthy has a 24.5 receiving yard median line, which both the sportsbook sets and my model knows, but he is not a normal 24.5-median receiver. He's a deep threat who is running a vertical route a high 43% of the time but is catching passes on just 8% of his routes, second-lowest among 81 qualifying wide receivers.

The point being that Worthy is all variance, but if he hits, he's much more prone to hit big. The model sees that and thinks his upside isn't being fully accounted for in the current price. Let's take advantage.

Anytime touchdown

Puka Nacua (LAR) to score 1-plus touchdowns (+155)

The thesis for Nacua is roughly the same as it was when we picked him to score last week (and he missed), though I probably only feel stronger about the selection now. The idea here is that Nacua's playing time this season is possibly leading to these increased odds even though extenuating circumstances affected him in three of the four games he's played.

In Week 1, Nacua played only 32% of the Rams offensive snaps before suffering a knee injury that would land him on IR. In Week 7, in his first game back from injury, he played 57% of the snaps as he worked back into form. In Week 8, he was ejected for throwing a punch and only played 35% of snaps. Only last week did we really get a view of his true workload ought to be, when he played 79% of the snaps against the Dolphins and caught nine passes for 98 yards. I make Nacua -108 to score against the Patriots.