The college football landscape is rife with intriguing matchups in Week 12 that could shape conference races, playoff aspirations and Heisman résumés. From the sun-soaked fields of the Mountain West to the chilly confines of the Big Ten, this weekend's slate offers a diverse array of games.
There are four key matchups that have caught my attention. We'll journey from the islands of Hawai'i to the Silicon Valley, and then trek across the country to the Pacific Northwest before settling in America's Dairyland. Our focus will be on Hawai'i at Utah State and Boise State at San José State in the Mountain West, while UCLA at Washington and Oregon at Wisconsin headline the Power Five action.
Each of these games presents its own unique storylines and betting angles, from high-powered offenses to stout defenses, and from teams looking to prove themselves to those fighting to maintain their lofty standing. As we break down these contests, we'll examine the spreads and totals, offering insights that could help you navigate the often-unpredictable world of college football betting.
All lines current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.
Hawai'i-Utah State OVER 60 points
This matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. Utah State's (lack of) defense is the primary factor driving this prediction, as the Aggies are currently allowing a staggering 46 points per game, putting them 133rd out of 134 FBS teams. Utah State's porous defense presents a golden opportunity for the Rainbow Warriors to put up significant points, potentially reaching or exceeding their season-high scoring output.
The Aggies' defensive struggles are underscored by their tendency to allow touchdowns rather than force field goals. Utah State has given up the fourth-most touchdowns (48) in the FBS while forcing only 15 field goals. This propensity for allowing opponents to find the end zone significantly increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Hawai'i's offense, led by quarterback Brayden Schager, has shown marked improvement and is well-positioned to exploit Utah State's defensive vulnerabilities. Schager's proficiency with quick passing plays, often utilizing short routes to stretch the field, aligns perfectly with the weaknesses in the Aggies' defense. His ability to capitalize on these opportunities has been evident in recent games, creating chances for big plays after the catch. This strategy has paid off handsomely, with Schager throwing for three touchdowns in back-to-back games. Moreover, 12 of his 19 total touchdowns this season have come from the medium-to-deep range, highlighting the potential for explosive plays that could lead to quick scores and rapidly push the total over 60 points.
Given Hawai'i's improving offensive efficiency and Utah State's defensive shortcomings, it's reasonable to expect the Rainbow Warriors will be able to convert their drives into touchdowns more often than not, contributing substantially to surpassing the 60-point total.
Boise State-San José State UNDER 62.5 points
This matchup has the potential to stay lower-scoring, largely due to Boise State's recent offensive trends. The Broncos have shown a marked shift in their offensive strategy, scoring 29 points or fewer in three of their past four games. Boise State's downturn in scoring coincides with an increased reliance on star running back Ashton Jeanty, who has seen his workload surge to at least 31 carries in each of these games, up from a maximum of 26 during the season's first half.
While this has led to a slight increase in rushing play percentage from 57% to 60%, and a bump in total carries from 40 to 44 per game, it hasn't translated to more scoring opportunities. The Broncos' offensive approach, coupled with San José State's knack for creating turnovers (tied for sixth-most takeaways in the FBS), could lead to stalled drives and fewer points on the board.
The Spartans' ability to force turnovers might not only limit Boise State's scoring but also keep the overall game tempo in check, further supporting the case for the under. With Boise State's apparent focus on Jeanty and his potential Heisman run, and a more conservative game plan, combined with San José State's opportunistic defense, we could see a lower-scoring affair that falls short of the 62.5-point total.
Washington (-3.5) vs. UCLA
This game presents an intriguing opportunity for the Huskies to capitalize on home-field advantage. Washington's season has been a tale of two teams. At home, the Huskies have been nearly unstoppable with a perfect 5-0 record, but their struggles on the road (0-5 in neutral or away games) have been evident.
The Huskies' pass defense has been a cornerstone of their success, allowing only 155 passing yards per game, tied for fourth best in the nation. Their secondary strength poses a significant challenge for UCLA's quarterback Ethan Garbers, who has shown vulnerability with 11 interceptions this season, including two in his recent game against Iowa. Washington's ability to create turnovers at home is particularly noteworthy. The Huskies' defense has managed eight interceptions this season and six of those have come on their home turf.
The Huskies have been especially stingy in preventing touchdowns at home. They've allowed only five touchdowns this season at Husky Stadium, tying them with defensive powerhouses like Notre Dame and Georgia, and trailing only Ohio State.
Washington is coming off a tough road loss, while UCLA has won three straight games. The Bruins' recent opponents (Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa) all rank outside the top 75 in total offense. This disparity in the quality of competition could work in Washington's favor.
With Washington's home dominance, its strong pass defense against a turnover-prone quarterback, and impressive red zone defense, the Huskies appear well-positioned to cover the 3.5-point spread against UCLA.
Washington-UCLA UNDER 47 points
Knowing the Huskies are a different beast at home, I have confidence they will do their part in keeping this total on the lower end. Despite the competition faced, the Bruins' defense has stepped up during their three-game win streak, forcing six total turnovers.
Plus, UCLA may have found a ground game, rushing for an average of 148.3 yards over its past three games after averaging 59.5 in its first six. T.J. Harden is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season, rushing for 125 yards on 20 carries against Iowa. If the Bruins' passing game isn't there for Garbers against an elite Washington secondary, UCLA may turn to Harden, leading to fewer clock stoppages and a quicker game, which often favors the under.
Wisconsin (+14) vs. Oregon
Dillon Gabriel has been a stellar leader for the Ducks, as evidenced by being a top Heisman contender. However, his high completion rate of 74% coupled with a relatively low 6.7 average depth of target (aDOT) suggests Oregon relies heavily on short passes. This tendency plays into Wisconsin's defensive strengths, allowing the Badgers to focus on tackling and limiting yards after the catch. Gabriel's aDOT has been shrinking, decreasing from 7.58 in the first five games to 6.9 in the past four, indicating Oregon may be becoming more conservative in its passing attack, which could limit big plays.
The Ducks' offense appears to be relying heavily on yards after the catch. Wide receiver Tez Johnson, for example, has 649 receiving yards on the season, with 451 of those yards coming after the catch, sixth most in the FBS among qualifying receivers. The average depth of target on those receptions is just five yards.
Wisconsin has demonstrated defensive potential, as evidenced by holding Penn State quarterback Drew Allar to 38 passing yards on seven attempts in the second quarter and maintaining a 10-7 lead at halftime three weeks ago. This performance showcases their ability to compete with capable offenses.
Playing at home provides Wisconsin with a significant boost, particularly coming off a bye week, which allows them extra preparation time to develop specific strategies to counter Oregon's offensive approach.
While Oregon's offense under Gabriel is efficient and productive, its style may not be conducive to consistently covering large point spreads, especially in away games, as evidenced by their 4-5 record against the spread as double-digit favorites this season.
The Badgers' strong defensive performance against Penn State, combined with their home-field advantage and extra preparation time from their bye week, could help them effectively counter Oregon's short-passing strategy to cover as 14-point underdogs.