Welcome to Week 7. We get an NFC North game between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings, so that division should finally sort itself out a little bit. We've got a Super Bowl rematch between the San Francisco and Kansas City Chiefs, both dramatically different teams than when they last played. And we've got two "Monday Night Football" games. Don't forget your espresso this week!
I touch on almost every game of the slate in this week's column. But I'm focused on three matchups in particular to watch, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each -- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting that you'll find at the bottom of the page.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Week 6 recap | Patriots-Jaguars | Seahawks-Falcons | Panthers-Commanders | Quick hits and SGP
Week 6 recap
We're inventing brand new ways to lose bets over here. Calvin Ridley became the first player in a decade to have no catches on eight or more targets, and the New Orleans Saints were scoreless in three of four quarters, yet somehow went over their team total.
Breaking bad was funny early in the season; it's starting to get preposterous.
Week 6: 5-6 (-0.80 units)
Overall: 28-36 (-5.92u)
Spread: 4-7 (-3.28u)
Total: 6-8 (-2.7u)
Props: 18-15 (+1.26u)
Same-game parlay: 0-6 (-1.2u)
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5, 42.5)
The London game was very profitable for us last week, with an easy cover on the Chicago Bears, a big D'Andre Swift receiving day and even a cruise to the over -- rare for London. I have strong leans to both the Patriots +5.5 and the over once again, as I continue to doubt this Jaguars team and their ability to steady the ship.
But can we really trust the Patriots?
A quiet, but critical, storyline over the first six weeks has been the fall of the Patriots' defense. After a strong showing in a Week 1 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, they've surrendered a positive EPA per play in each of their past five contests; the only quarterback they've held to a negative day was Tyler Huntley and the Miami Dolphins' anemic passing attack. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez remains lights-out, but the rotation under him of Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones and Marco Wilson has been attacked successfully, negating the impact of Gonzalez.
The personnel issues don't stop there. Middle linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley was lost for the season in Week 2 after he tore his pec; safety Jabrill Peppers was arrested on allegations of assault and hasn't played since Week 4. With defensive tackle Christian Barmore sidelined since the start of the season with blood clots, the Patriots' defense no longer has the keystones it relied on for success over the past few seasons.
While the Jaguars' offense remains maddeningly inconsistent and seemingly always suffers drops and penalties at the worst possible time, it remains a solid unit on a down-to-down basis. The 1-5 Jaguars are 16th in success rate on offense, rip off explosive runs at one of the highest rates in the league (12.2%), and push the football downfield through the air as well (Trevor Lawrence is second only to Brock Purdy in air yards per attempt this season). We should expect Jacksonville to move the football far better this week than last week, when they had the league's top defense (Chicago) host them across the pond.
Jacksonville's team total is set at 23.5 points, which feels low, but I prefer the full game over, as I think the Patriots have great scoring potential in this game as well. Jacksonville's defense is stone-cold last in the league by EPA and especially struggles through the air. Cornerback Tyson Campbell won't be back for this game, but the Jaguars will continue playing man coverage and let their secondary depth be tested. That's a test that rookie quarterback Drake Maye can ace.
Maye's debut in Week 6 was a strong one, especially when you consider the opponent. The Houston Texans' pass rush is as intense as it gets, and Maye more than held his own. The young passer was as he was in college: aggressive, physical, but still smart. His turnovers (two picks, one fumble) look far worse than how he actually played, but even if he remains turnover-heavy behind that leaky Pats offensive line, we know short fields can feed the Jaguars more points.
There were two key changes in the Patriots' passing attack when they flipped from Jacoby Brissett to Maye. The first: Maye was more willing than Brissett to push the football downfield. Over 25% of Maye's throws went at least 10 yards downfield, something Brissett did only did in one of five games this season. The second: New England called more passes overall, dropping back on 66.7% of its total offensive snaps. That should lengthen the game and create more room for explosives.
It's worth noting that 41 is a key number in NFL totals, and this line at ESPN BET is currently hanging at 41.5. We will grade against the posted line, but it's worth waiting for this line to continue moving down, as it has this week, or consider buying the half-point to get the line squarely at 41.
The pick: OVER 41.5 total points (-105)
There are several props that feel good in this game. Running backs have smoked the Jaguars in the passing game this year, so if Rhamondre Stevenson is again unable to go, I'll be looking for Antonio Gibson overs. We cashed on Maye's rushing yards last week, and I like that look again as well.
But the prop I'll select is Evan Engram to grab at least five receptions. Engram returned to the starting lineup with a bang last week, grabbing all 10 of his targets for 102 yards. Last season, Engram had at least four receptions in every game and cleared five in all but four. He has an extremely low depth of target, which elevates his catch rate, so we really can get there on just five targets, but I imagine he will get more as the Jaguars continue trying to unstick their offense. Engram is dependable in a way the other Jaguar pass-catchers have not proved to be this season, and the Patriots have largely struggled against tight ends. Tyler Conklin went for five catches and 93 yards, Jonnu Smith had five catches and 62 yards and Dalton Schultz had four grabs catches for 27 yards. None of those players are as important to their passing offenses as Engram is.
The pick: Evan Engram OVER 4.5 receptions (-135)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 51.5)
I've been looking for my spot to fade the Falcons, and I think this is it. The win against the Carolina Panthers last week was nice, as all wins over the Panthers should be. But besides that win, the Falcons have an overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that never should have been, a game-winning field goal over the New Orleans Saints set up by a DPI and a game-winning drive against the Philadelphia Eagles that never should have been, either. Their 4-2 record feels very fraudulent.
As I wrote before the Buccaneers game, the Falcons are still dealing with a limited quarterback in Kirk Cousins. He took more pistol snaps in the Week 6 game against the Panthers than he had in any other game this season, and his pistol rate has been climbing in each of the past five weeks as his under-center rate falls. The Falcons don't trust Cousins to move, they don't run boot action, and a whopping 94% of Cousins' throws have come from within the pocket this year. The Falcons' passing game works great when it works -- when Cousins can find the middle-of-the-field windows and throw with timing and a clean platform. But they cannot create out of structure, and I am always suspicious of offenses that need to be perfect in operation to work well.
It's worth wondering if the Seahawks have the requisite tools to disrupt this operation. What's to stop them from getting shredded like the Bucs and Panthers? After all, the Seahawks gave up a perfect game to Jared Goff, a winning effort to Daniel Jones and then 36 points to Purdy and the 49ers. It has been a bad stretch.
Seattle has had injury issues on defense. At various times in the past three weeks, they've missed snaps from Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Boye Mafe, Trevis Gipson, Jerome Baker and Riq Woolen. The first five players should all be back in this game, and most importantly, rookie defensive tackle Murphy will return to the starting lineup. He was the Seahawks' most disruptive interior player when the season began, and he should help create a splash play or two in the running game.
Byron Murphy doesn't look like a rookie DT at all pic.twitter.com/b2NJ8thIAa
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) September 10, 2024
A healthier Seahawks defense should be able to push the Falcons on their pressure points. Seattle's pass rush remains one of the best in the league, getting after the quarterback on 38.4% of opposing dropbacks, the seventh-best mark in the league. Seattle pressured Purdy on 50% of his dropbacks but never sacked him, as Purdy constantly slipped away from pressure. Cousins cannot negate pressure the way that Purdy did.
Quarterbacks have really killed the Seahawks when getting out of the pocket, whether by design or off-script. Goff, on his perfect day against Seattle, had a play-action fake on 62% of his dropbacks and got out of the pocket on 23.8% -- the mind of ideal day of outside zone, boot-action that every Mike Shanahan/Sean McVay coach dreams about. But the Falcons can't do that, as they don't move Cousins out of the pocket, and Cousins is 30th among league passers in play-action rate. On non-play-action dropbacks from the pocket, the Seahawks are third in success rate, behind only the New York Jets and Chicago Bears.
The Seahawks' cover men will be tested, especially if both Woolen and fellow CB Tre Brown miss this game. But I think the predictability of the Falcons' passing game will give Seattle the edge it needs to get a few stops. Short of a thermonuclear Bijan Robinson rushing performance, which is always possible, the Seahawks' defense is in for a bounce-back performance, especially after a week of additional rest to consider some solutions.
While Seattle's defense has let them down of late, the offense has been delivering on its end of the bargain and now faces the 27th-ranked defense by success rate. The Falcons' defense is particularly struggling on the ground, as the lack of star personnel on the defensive front leaves them susceptible to a strong rushing attack.
The Seahawks currently lead the league in pass rate over expectation, according to Next Gen Stats, but they really want to run the football a little more. It was a big point of emphasis entering the week against the 49ers, and while they ended up throwing it a lot in a deficit, it was still their first game with a positive run rate over expected since Week 1. Frustratingly, it was running back Kenneth Walker III's worst game on the ground all season, but he pulled in eight targets to counteract that. Activating Walker is a huge focus of this coaching staff.
In a close game, as projected by the script, I think we see Walker get the volume on the ground that the coaching staff wasn't able to feed him against the 49ers. I prefer yardage over carries here, in case a heavy dose of running from both teams shortens the game, and because Walker is always liable to rip off a big run or two.
The bet: Kenneth Walker III OVER 69.5 rushing yards (+105)
When Seattle throws the ball, Geno Smith gets pressured. On the season, Smith has been pressured on 86% of dropdbacks, the second-most in the league behind only Deshaun Watson. The good news is that Seattle is facing an Atlanta pass rush that has been toothless for years and remains toothless this season, even following the addition of Matthew Judon. No team in football is pressuring the opposing quarterback less frequently than Atlanta, and when Geno is unpressured, he's third in the league in success rate.
I know the records say otherwise, and that the Falcons have been trending up while the Seahawks are on a three-game skid. But I think the better team in this game is comfortably Seattle, and I like getting them with the points on the road. They have the rest advantage, they are getting healthier and they have some desperation. Looks like a prime buy-low spot to me.
The bet: Seahawks +3 (-120)
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders (-8, 51.5)
Since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback for the Panthers, their games have totaled 58, 58, 46 and 58 points. All four have gone over their listed point total. The Commanders have gone over the total in five of their six games, as well. The lone under came against the New York Giants in a game in which the Commanders scored seven field goals and not a single touchdown.
You see where I'm going with this?
While we shouldn't just take historical trends and expect them to continue, there are plenty of game-specific reasons to endorse the over here. The Commanders' run defense has been one of the league's worst, and the running game of the Panthers has been the true source of their success on offense. Since Dalton stepped in for Bryce Young and defenses started respecting the threat of a pass, the Panthers' rushing attack is third in success rate, tied with a Baltimore Ravens offense that just put 30 on Washington. Derrick Henry rushed for 132 yards and two scores on 24 carries.
Before you say "but Chuba Hubbard isn't Derrick Henry," double-check yourself on Hubbard. Hubbard has totaled at least 90 rushing yards in each of the past four games, despite the fact that the Panthers were trailing in the second half of three of those games. Hubbard is fifth in rush yards over expectation, per Next Gen Stats; among backs with at least 50 carries, nobody has generated positive rushing yards over expected on more carries than Hubbard. In the absence of second-round rookie running back Jonathan Brooks, who began practicing this week but is unlikely to play in this game, Hubbard has established himself as a clear RB1 in the backfield.
Hubbard's rushing line is the most surprising line to me of the week. Even if you think the Commanders will score on the Panthers fast and put them in a deficit, head coach Dave Canales has shown a commitment to establishing the run even back to his days as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive coordinator. And with the weakness of the Commanders' run defense considered, especially in the absence of star defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, I struggle to see a world where Hubbard fails to get to this number. I will be taking this line, as well as a couple of alternates at higher numbers.
The pick: Chuba Hubbard over 69.5 rushing yards (-125)
Because the Commanders give up so many explosive runs (and so many explosive passes, to be fair), I don't think a heavy rushing approach will slow the game down all too much from Carolina. The biggest concern on the Panthers offense is the potential absence of Diontae Johnson, who did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday with an ankle injury. If Johnson can't go, the Panthers' receiver corps will be as green as you can imagine, with rookie Xavier Legette, rookie Jalen Coker and second-year player Jonathan Mingo. But just about anybody and everybody catches passes against this Commanders cornerback room, so I still expect the Panthers to move the ball.
Even if the Panthers don't give us a ton on offense as their pass-catcher injuries accumulate, Washington might put 50 on this Panthers defense. The Commanders produce more points per drive than any offense in football, and the Panthers allow more points per drive than all but one defense. The Commanders lead the league in EPA per play; the Panthers are third-worst on defense by EPA per play. D.J. Wonnum will still be out for the week, so there's no relief coming for the Panthers' pass rush. Josey Jewell, thrust into a bigger role with Shaq Thompson on injured reserve, is going to try to go but figures to be less than 100%, even if he does play.
The Commanders' offense was finally slowed (not really stopped, just slowed) against the Ravens on Sunday. Was there a blueprint laid? I don't think so. You must win early downs against Washington, as its menu of runs and reads and screens and tricks keeps them in favorable down-and-distances. That's something that the Ravens were uniquely suited to do, as they have one of the best run defenses in football. Carolina has one of the worst. One of the reason these Commanders games keep going over is because even when they're running with big leads late, they're still putting points on the board.
A total of 51.5 is high in the modern NFL, and we're getting a bad line, as this opened at 49.5 this week. I think Panthers over 20.5 is also good, and I'm very tempted by Panthers +8 outright. But the potential for a true offensive implosion from the Commanders -- I'm talking 40+ points -- makes me willing to take the full game total here.
The bet: OVER 51.5 total points (-105)
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 43.5 total points (-105)
This line has moved across the key number of 44 multiple times, so it might be worth waiting for the better number, but I still feel confident in this number at 43.5. We're looking at a meeting between two of the heavier running teams in football. The Chargers are sixth in run rate over expectation, and the Cardinals are ninth. The Cardinals' defense has been giving up big totals as of late, but the Chargers are not equipped for fast and explosive scoring drives. In fact, the Chargers are scoring only a touchdown on 16.1% of their drives, which is 25th in all of football. Expect long drives, a running clock and field goals in this one.
Houston Texans TE Dalton Schultz UNDER 39.5 receiving yards (-130)
Schultz has been seeing his target rate climb in recent weeks, but he has not cleared this number in a single game this season. He faces a Green Bay Packers defense that has generally discouraged tight end targets (by allowing so many successful wide receiver targets), and those tight ends against which they have struggled are the tight ends who typically line up in the slot (Trey McBride, Colby Parkinson). That isn't Schultz. It's scary to take an under for one of C.J. Stroud's receivers in a game that the Texans might be trailing, but Schultz would need to peak to clear this number.
Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-120)
In the past two games (both without Davante Adams), Bowers has seen double-digit targets, has seen a target on over 30% of his routes, has seen his rate of routes from the slot increase and has totaled 97 and 71 yards, respectively. He has a high floor and a high ceiling, given his explosive run-after-the-catch potential. The Raiders are a 7-point underdog to the Los Angeles Rams, so they figure to be in passing scripts for much of the game, and the Rams are giving up 2.12 yards per route to opposing tight ends. Only the Chiefs are worse. This is a smash spot, and I will be looking at alt lines.
Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard over 3.5 receptions (-105)
The Bills play a cautious zone defense that loves to surrender underneath targets to backs. De'Von Achane (seven receptions), Justice Hill (six receptions), Dare Ogunbowale (six receptions) and Breece Hall (six receptions) have all popped off in the passing game against this defense. Pollard figures to get at least 20 routes this week, as backup Tyjae Spears is likely out for this contest, and the backup running backs in Tennessee (Joshua Kelley, Julius Chestnut) can't make as big of a dent in Pollard's snaps as Spears does.
SGP: Lions-Vikings UNDER 54.5 total points, Justin Jefferson 80+ receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs 50+ rushing yards, Tim Patrick 15+ receiving yards (+700)
While the Aidan Hutchinson loss is devastating, this is still a talented Lions defense, and I think the total is giving far too much credit to his absence, as well as the explosiveness of the Lions' offense, which has been astonishing in the past couple of game but faces a much stiffer test in Minnesota this Sunday.
Gibbs has cleared this number in every contest since Week 2, and Tim Patrick has clearly taken over the WR3 role in the offense. Four of his eight catches this season have gone over this number, and his route share has been growing over recent weeks. Throw in the near-certainty that Jefferson gets a couple big plays on the Lions and here we are.